Saints have been an over value play for quite a while... including double-digit chalk twice against these Falcons LY. Now, we FINALLY get a shot at a damn good price... and, in The Big Easy, to boot. And, let's face it, Pierre Thomas no slouch as Reggie Bush stand-in.
New Orleans - 3 1/2
NOTE: Saints RB - Reggie Bush will be OUT for approximately 6 weeks with a broken leg.
Covers Live Odds shows this as being OFF at all books but gives ATL+6 points as the Covers line. I have seen two online books so far and they show ATL+4.5 points here.
Atlanta is 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS in their L-9 games at New Orleans. As dogs at New Orleans, the ATL is 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS during that span of games. The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their L-5 trips as dogs to the Big Easy. I don't know if the Falcons can pull off a SU win even with Bush OUT for the Saints but I do like them to give the Sainst a good game and get a cover at Atlanta+4.5 pts. Division games are always tough and the Saints will be w/o Bush and on a short week. I like the ATL even though the Saints are 8-2 ATS in thier L-10 games as a home fav of 4 or less points.
Pick = Atlanta+4.5 pts 
My Guesstimate = New Orleans-24 Atlanta-21
Final Score - Atlants-27 New Orleans-24
Saints should have won this in OT by a 27-24 score but missed its FG try while ATL followed up that with the game winning FG in OT.
Established in 1995,
( I would probably be more comfortable teasing the over )
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