San Antonio at Los Angeles (05/21/2008)

Alright... i gave a break down on the lakers jazz... let me give it a shot here... I'm saying lakers in 6... this is how the matchups shake out.

The big men will probably be switched up a bit.  I say that they'll start timmy on gasol because they normally have him guard the less aggressive guy, or the more finesse of the two, which is clearly gasol.  For my money, these two are pretty comparable offensively, with the edge going to timmy on defense.  The edge in the front court however, will ultimately go to the lakers, because Lamar will eat oberto alive if they play that matchup.  He is stronger and faster.  I think that eventually pop will have to concede and put timmy on lamar and hope that gasol can be slowed.  At that point, gasol should have the edge over his man, and lamar and timmy are close enough to a push as lamar is a much better defender than he gets credit for.

Kobe will start at shooting guard and obviously draw bowen.  We know how that has gone historically, however in this series, kobe will face a lot less double teams than in years past as he will make them pay for committing to doubling him by finding the open man.  Anyway you put it, the lakers will always get more out of that matchup as kobe can be slowed, but never stopped.  He will also eat bowen alive on D if they go that route as kobe is a perennial first team defender. 

D-Fish will probably do as good a job on parker as can be done.  He will keep him from too many open looks and fish will do a better job of denying parker the lane than the hornets did, and he will likely still get his on the offensive end as a jump shooter, as he is a bit bigger than parker and will make things tough on him.  For as long as kobe has been with the lakers, they have only really needed to neutralize opposing PG's and fisher is excellent at that, even slowing down D-will at times.  Parker is good, but he does not command HALF the respect for his jumper, so D-fish should be able to cheat in a bit and again deny the lane a bit better. 

Manu is going to be the spurs best asset in this series, although the lakers have a ton of different guys to throw on him, so they should be able to slow down his production.  They'll probably start with vlad radmonavic on him (or finley/horry when they're in), but they could throw vujacic, luke walton, eventually ariza (maybe?), or even kobe for good measure.  If manu starts, they'll probably try vlad rad at him early.  Any way you spin it the lakers will always get more out of that matchup as kobe can be slowed, but never stopped.  He will also eat bowen alive on D if they go that route as kobe is a perennial first team defender.  D-Fish will probably do as good a job on parker as can be done.  He will keep him from too many open looks and fish will do a better job of denying parker the lane than the hornets did, and he will likely still get his on the offensive end as a jump shooter, as he is a bit bigger than parker and will make things tough on him.  For as long as kobe has been with the lakers, they have only really needed to neutralize opposing PG's and fisher is excellent at that, even slowing down D-will at times.  Parker is good, but he does not command HALF the respect for his jumper, so D-fish should be able to cheat in a bit and again deny the lane a bit better. 

 

Manu is going to be the spurs best asset in this series, as he can shoot the jumper and drive to the bucket and create fouls when they're in need of clutch points, although the lakers have a ton of different guys to throw on him, so they should be able to slow down his production.  They'll probably start with vlad radmonavic on him (or finley/horry when they're in), but they could throw vujacic or luke walton, eventually ariza (maybe?), or even kobe for good measure.  If manu starts, they'll probably try vlad rad at him early.  Any way you spin it, ginobili will not be able to fall into a rhythm against the many looks the lakers will throw at him. 

 

The Lakers size cause problems too.  Outside of their backcourt regulars (lamar and pau) they have a couple 6-10 forwards in ronnie turiaf and vlad rad, even occasional minutes for 7 foot beast MBenga (who kind of plays like ronnie only bigger and less coordinated) not to mention the only lakers smaller than 6'6" kobe bryant are D-fish and jordan farmar. 

 

The lakers are a much more complete and deep team than the hornets, with two experienced, war tested veterans.  Remember, Fish and Kobe ran the team that gave horry three of those pretty little rings.  In all reality, this series should look a lot like the hornets' home games, for los angeles, but the difference in my opinion is that fish and kobe's leadership and phil's coaching could pluck one in san antonio.  Even if this goes 7, the lakers will not hand that game over like the hornets did.  (i actually won 2 of four plays i made on the lakers at +300 or more return ... i played on lakers in 4 or 5 over the nugs and 5 or 6 over the jazz, winning the sweep and 6th respectively... the lakers have been my biggest bread winner in these playoffs, losing only two games ATS this postseason (jazz game 2 and 5). 

 

I'll sound like a laker homer, but this is a winning franchise and they have winners on their team.  If there is a team in the west that can knock the spurs off their throne, it is the lakers, and they have the home court behind them.  They are better and more experienced than the hornets and the hornets almost did it.  That being said, even if the lakers don't win this series, there's no way in hell the spurs cover game 1 in LA.

 

Lakers -7 (HUGE)

 

don't mess with that first half line, the spurs know how to start road games, they can be overpowered late... they always seem to at least come out strong in losing efforts.

 

probably also go

 

Spurs team total UNDER 94.5