Keep Kobe to a "mangeable" 25 a game, Rondo attacks the basket more, Ray Allen with no foul trouble and in the game at the end as the best free throw shooter in the League, Pierce mixing up jumpers with drives, KG will be solid on D and dominate the glass offensively/defensively and I look for the Celts bench to come up big with maybe one letdown game and you have all the right ingredients for the Championship.
For the game:
C's -2.5
0
Celtics in 6.
Keep Kobe to a "mangeable" 25 a game, Rondo attacks the basket more, Ray Allen with no foul trouble and in the game at the end as the best free throw shooter in the League, Pierce mixing up jumpers with drives, KG will be solid on D and dominate the glass offensively/defensively and I look for the Celts bench to come up big with maybe one letdown game and you have all the right ingredients for the Championship.
laker's and Celtics it was truly meant to be. Home court will not prevail, but i do give the first game to the c's. It is Kobe's year, it is going to be long but the lake show prevails. Sasha and Jordan are the glue to the second unit. Lamar Odom is going to be the X factor.
Game:
C's-2.5
0
laker's and Celtics it was truly meant to be. Home court will not prevail, but i do give the first game to the c's. It is Kobe's year, it is going to be long but the lake show prevails. Sasha and Jordan are the glue to the second unit. Lamar Odom is going to be the X factor.
laker's and Celtics it was truly meant to be. Home court will not prevail, but i do give the first game to the c's. It is Kobe's year, it is going to be long but the lake show prevails. Sasha and Jordan are the glue to the second unit. Lamar Odom is going to be the X factor.
Game:
C's-2.5
0
laker's and Celtics it was truly meant to be. Home court will not prevail, but i do give the first game to the c's. It is Kobe's year, it is going to be long but the lake show prevails. Sasha and Jordan are the glue to the second unit. Lamar Odom is going to be the X factor.
Radmanovic vs. Pierce?... adv. Pierce (if he shows up)
Odom vs. Garnett... adv: Odom (size and strength)
Gasol vs. Perkins... adv: Gasol (gimme a break)
Coaches:
Jackson vs. Rivers.... adv. Jackson BIG TIME
Fisher, Kobe, Odom, and Gasol will eat the Celtics alive. HUGE matchup problems for Boston. This could get ugly. Keep in mind, I do not like the Lakers. This is just the way I see it.
0
Starters:
Rondo vs. Fisher.... adv: Fisher
Kobe vs. Allen? ... adv. Kobe (obviously)
Radmanovic vs. Pierce?... adv. Pierce (if he shows up)
Odom vs. Garnett... adv: Odom (size and strength)
Gasol vs. Perkins... adv: Gasol (gimme a break)
Coaches:
Jackson vs. Rivers.... adv. Jackson BIG TIME
Fisher, Kobe, Odom, and Gasol will eat the Celtics alive. HUGE matchup problems for Boston. This could get ugly. Keep in mind, I do not like the Lakers. This is just the way I see it.
ok... have looked deeply into this matchup... here is what i have going into game 1...
Boston (+165) to win the series
Bos (-2.5) game 1
Un 192.5 game 1
2 exact series outcome bets i like: Lakers in 7 (+450), Celtics in 6 (+600)...
if you want to see how i came up with my picks you can see some of my analysis on my covers space...
CMJ, nice analysis... i am surprised you give the bench edge to the Lakers, though... i think that experience gives Boston the edge for sure... otherwise pretty accurate... can't say the same about Cremins...
0
ok... have looked deeply into this matchup... here is what i have going into game 1...
Boston (+165) to win the series
Bos (-2.5) game 1
Un 192.5 game 1
2 exact series outcome bets i like: Lakers in 7 (+450), Celtics in 6 (+600)...
if you want to see how i came up with my picks you can see some of my analysis on my covers space...
CMJ, nice analysis... i am surprised you give the bench edge to the Lakers, though... i think that experience gives Boston the edge for sure... otherwise pretty accurate... can't say the same about Cremins...
The Celtics are 22-4 against the western conf, I remember a little strech where they came in and beat, DAL, SA, and HOU killing the 22 game win streak. So to say that the Lakers will sweep or that the C's don't stand a chance is just dumb. Granted the C's have not seen Gasol but the C's still have a better front court and this was the #1 defensive team during the regular season. All that being said I still think the lakers take the series in 6 games. However for this game the Celtics will pull it out and get their first of 2 wins.
Tonight I think the crappy coaching by Doc Rivers will be offset by the emotional wave the C's will be riding. Lets not forget that KG, Ray Allen, Pierce, Perkins or Rondo have never been in the finals and they will all be pumped but probably a little jittery in the first quarter facilitating the under. Plus with these 2 defensive teams will lock down the fourth quarter and the whole game should be under 192
PICK Celtics -2 buying the half
Under 48 1st Qtr
Under 192.5 Game
0
The Celtics are 22-4 against the western conf, I remember a little strech where they came in and beat, DAL, SA, and HOU killing the 22 game win streak. So to say that the Lakers will sweep or that the C's don't stand a chance is just dumb. Granted the C's have not seen Gasol but the C's still have a better front court and this was the #1 defensive team during the regular season. All that being said I still think the lakers take the series in 6 games. However for this game the Celtics will pull it out and get their first of 2 wins.
Tonight I think the crappy coaching by Doc Rivers will be offset by the emotional wave the C's will be riding. Lets not forget that KG, Ray Allen, Pierce, Perkins or Rondo have never been in the finals and they will all be pumped but probably a little jittery in the first quarter facilitating the under. Plus with these 2 defensive teams will lock down the fourth quarter and the whole game should be under 192
bostons d is like detroit in 2004. We saw what happened to the lakers then. Celtics in 6 or 7. By the way if your going to pick lal to win series, dont say in 7 because they arent winning game 7 on the road. That is hard to do. Honestly and someone help me out with this, but who is the last team to win a game 7 on the road in championship round in any sport. And i dont mean alcs, or west final, because yes the red sox won game 7 at the stadium. Im talking world series, nba finals, stanley cup finals, game 7 road winner? Just wondering. Either way if the lakers are getting it done they better not wait until 7
0
bostons d is like detroit in 2004. We saw what happened to the lakers then. Celtics in 6 or 7. By the way if your going to pick lal to win series, dont say in 7 because they arent winning game 7 on the road. That is hard to do. Honestly and someone help me out with this, but who is the last team to win a game 7 on the road in championship round in any sport. And i dont mean alcs, or west final, because yes the red sox won game 7 at the stadium. Im talking world series, nba finals, stanley cup finals, game 7 road winner? Just wondering. Either way if the lakers are getting it done they better not wait until 7
Really nice work CMJ. I was wonderin' when we'd see an appearance by the O-riginal Celtics Homer.
Nicely objective I'll say.
And now I'll post something that's going to seem admittedly NOT very objective, but I caught an article in the LA Times today featuring an interview with a hoops-crazy Pepperdine psychology professor who has spent weeks studying the Celtics for mental tendencies and habits, which supports my theory of why the Lakers will take game one.
"Taking game one in Boston is way of attacking one of Boston's strengths, since, in their collective identity, home is their safe place. It's like the guy who thinks the most solid thing in his life is his relationship and then finds out his wife is cheating on him. It's incredibly rattling, and causes him to lose his bearings and not know where to turn".
(Probably a bit grandiose and over-exaggerated, but makes the point.)
He noted that at times the Celtics seemed rigid and inflexible during the playoffs, struggling to adapt to Atlanta's speed and getting gummed up by the slowness of Cleveland.
"Trust me, they are suffering from a diffusion of responsibility, and that leads to the bystander effect. The big 3 are so individually accomplished and used to being the top dog that at times, when the tension builds, they seem not to know where to turn. It's akin to social loafing - waiting for the other guy to take over".
"It's not that the Celtics lack ego. They're a team of preeners who shout and posture and do the chest-bump thing, but are consequently, psychologically vulnerable. Run by an inexperienced point guard who's jumper turns into a knuckleball down the stretch, and the big 3, who, for all of their greatness, are saddled by aging legs and a sense that there's not much time left . . . "
You'd have to view all of this as a worst-case scenario for Boston, if psychologically, that's the side they show us, but at crunch time, it's very possible.
And alot of depends on how much you believe in the mental game of baskeball and on how much of an edge you believe the Laker coaching staff has in this series.
Even Sam Cassell himself said: "Doc ain't gonna' make no baskets or turn the ball over . . . "
Ultimately, as evenly matched as these teams are, the psychological edge in terms of the poise and professionalism handed down by the coaching staff and displayed on the floor by Fisher and Bryant, combined with the simple fact that LA has Kobe Bryant in his first MVP season, will be the difference in this series.
I can't get away from the idea that these teams are going to split games one and two, but I like the Lakers tonight because I don't believe Boston has the maturity to set aside the distractions of the lead-up to this game at home (getting tickets for families, dealin' with the endless phone calls by the hangers on), the fact that the big 3 have waited their entire careers to get here, and the obvious jitters that will come when the game starts.
As for the over/under, I normally just don't like that bet because I just hate watching basketball that way, and I also feel like you're betting on the performances of TWO teams instead of just one . . . however, I do agree with most of what's been posted here that Game One jitters combined with a mini-layoff from action should result in an UNDER the 191.5 total.
Just can't wait . . . .
And let's ALL make some scratch on this series.
Hey, where's Christopher Lloyd on this post by the way?
0
Really nice work CMJ. I was wonderin' when we'd see an appearance by the O-riginal Celtics Homer.
Nicely objective I'll say.
And now I'll post something that's going to seem admittedly NOT very objective, but I caught an article in the LA Times today featuring an interview with a hoops-crazy Pepperdine psychology professor who has spent weeks studying the Celtics for mental tendencies and habits, which supports my theory of why the Lakers will take game one.
"Taking game one in Boston is way of attacking one of Boston's strengths, since, in their collective identity, home is their safe place. It's like the guy who thinks the most solid thing in his life is his relationship and then finds out his wife is cheating on him. It's incredibly rattling, and causes him to lose his bearings and not know where to turn".
(Probably a bit grandiose and over-exaggerated, but makes the point.)
He noted that at times the Celtics seemed rigid and inflexible during the playoffs, struggling to adapt to Atlanta's speed and getting gummed up by the slowness of Cleveland.
"Trust me, they are suffering from a diffusion of responsibility, and that leads to the bystander effect. The big 3 are so individually accomplished and used to being the top dog that at times, when the tension builds, they seem not to know where to turn. It's akin to social loafing - waiting for the other guy to take over".
"It's not that the Celtics lack ego. They're a team of preeners who shout and posture and do the chest-bump thing, but are consequently, psychologically vulnerable. Run by an inexperienced point guard who's jumper turns into a knuckleball down the stretch, and the big 3, who, for all of their greatness, are saddled by aging legs and a sense that there's not much time left . . . "
You'd have to view all of this as a worst-case scenario for Boston, if psychologically, that's the side they show us, but at crunch time, it's very possible.
And alot of depends on how much you believe in the mental game of baskeball and on how much of an edge you believe the Laker coaching staff has in this series.
Even Sam Cassell himself said: "Doc ain't gonna' make no baskets or turn the ball over . . . "
Ultimately, as evenly matched as these teams are, the psychological edge in terms of the poise and professionalism handed down by the coaching staff and displayed on the floor by Fisher and Bryant, combined with the simple fact that LA has Kobe Bryant in his first MVP season, will be the difference in this series.
I can't get away from the idea that these teams are going to split games one and two, but I like the Lakers tonight because I don't believe Boston has the maturity to set aside the distractions of the lead-up to this game at home (getting tickets for families, dealin' with the endless phone calls by the hangers on), the fact that the big 3 have waited their entire careers to get here, and the obvious jitters that will come when the game starts.
As for the over/under, I normally just don't like that bet because I just hate watching basketball that way, and I also feel like you're betting on the performances of TWO teams instead of just one . . . however, I do agree with most of what's been posted here that Game One jitters combined with a mini-layoff from action should result in an UNDER the 191.5 total.
Just can't wait . . . .
And let's ALL make some scratch on this series.
Hey, where's Christopher Lloyd on this post by the way?
Your are right. Both Lakers and Celtics have not played each other this year but played two games on November 23, 2007 at Boston. Boston winning 107 Lakers 94. Boston -8 O/U 205. December 30, 2007 it was Boston 110 to 91 at Los Angeles. Lakers -3.5 O/U 186.5.
0
Goinggone,
Your are right. Both Lakers and Celtics have not played each other this year but played two games on November 23, 2007 at Boston. Boston winning 107 Lakers 94. Boston -8 O/U 205. December 30, 2007 it was Boston 110 to 91 at Los Angeles. Lakers -3.5 O/U 186.5.
What about some line adjustment analysis here? It opened up at Celtics -3.5 and now with 68% of the money on the Celtics side the spread has dropped to -2.5. Where are all of you who swear by line movements? Isnt this an example of the dreaded reverse line movement?
Lakers +2.5
Lakers ML
Lakers 1st Q +.5
My reasoning after all of the back and forth this week is simple. You cant give Phil this much time to come up with a formula to steal game 1 and you cant give Doc this much time to screw up a formula and give away game 1.
Also like the under across the board.
Either way let the games begin, GL to everyone
0
What about some line adjustment analysis here? It opened up at Celtics -3.5 and now with 68% of the money on the Celtics side the spread has dropped to -2.5. Where are all of you who swear by line movements? Isnt this an example of the dreaded reverse line movement?
Lakers +2.5
Lakers ML
Lakers 1st Q +.5
My reasoning after all of the back and forth this week is simple. You cant give Phil this much time to come up with a formula to steal game 1 and you cant give Doc this much time to screw up a formula and give away game 1.
What about some line adjustment analysis here? It opened up at Celtics -3.5 and now with 68% of the money on the Celtics side the spread has dropped to -2.5. Where are all of you who swear by line movements? Isnt this an example of the dreaded reverse line movement?
Lakers +2.5
Lakers ML
Lakers 1st Q +.5
My reasoning after all of the back and forth this week is simple. You cant give Phil this much time to come up with a formula to steal game 1 and you cant give Doc this much time to screw up a formula and give away game 1.
Also like the under across the board.
Either way let the games begin, GL to everyone
my thoughts exactly... the two most damning pieces of evidence in my mind... 1) line movement (and ML shrinkage) in opposition of public money 2) phil having a whole week to gameplan for one team.
let's get this change
LAL +3/ML Under 192
0
Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
What about some line adjustment analysis here? It opened up at Celtics -3.5 and now with 68% of the money on the Celtics side the spread has dropped to -2.5. Where are all of you who swear by line movements? Isnt this an example of the dreaded reverse line movement?
Lakers +2.5
Lakers ML
Lakers 1st Q +.5
My reasoning after all of the back and forth this week is simple. You cant give Phil this much time to come up with a formula to steal game 1 and you cant give Doc this much time to screw up a formula and give away game 1.
Also like the under across the board.
Either way let the games begin, GL to everyone
my thoughts exactly... the two most damning pieces of evidence in my mind... 1) line movement (and ML shrinkage) in opposition of public money 2) phil having a whole week to gameplan for one team.
I think everyone here is over-analyzing this matchup. Both teams have their strength's and weaknesses. While the Celts looked like shit on the road in the playoffs and have had a tendency to play to the level of their competition, ask yourselves how things would've turned out if Ray Allen had been shooting near his season long shooting % of 40/34. Ask yourselves what if Doc had made the appropriate in-game adjustments. Ask yourselves how either DEN, UT, and SA would've matched up against ATL, CLE and DET.. While I realize that the W.Conf race was THE TIGHTEST race in a long time, you can't underestimate the strength of the E. Conf. I don't think the first two series' were an adequate representation of the Celts.. I think we should be focusing on the Det series more than the ATL or CLE series.
That said, the Lakers have their faults too. Odom, Fish, Gasol, Rad, Vuj, are all streaky. Kobe, we all know can turn it on at any time. Both teams can throw down on the defensive end when they struggle but we saw a Celts team come together how many times this post season and get it done when they needed to? How many times were the Lakers really tested. They faced a beat up SA team, who had a tougher series (mentally) v. the Suns than anyone gives credit and it took them 7 to get past the Bees.. That series may have gone another way had they faced SA earlier on in the playoffs with a healthy Ginobili.
Don't underestimate home court advantage. It's gonna be huge for Boston. They will be fired up in game one. If the Lakers can steal game one look out but I just don't see that happening. They might be able to steal game two but I doubt game one.
You can talk about coaching all you want but the players still have to execute.. Reverse line movement is always scary but action based solely on line movement is 50/50..
For what it's worth.. I like the Celts -2.5... FADE AWAY..
0
I think everyone here is over-analyzing this matchup. Both teams have their strength's and weaknesses. While the Celts looked like shit on the road in the playoffs and have had a tendency to play to the level of their competition, ask yourselves how things would've turned out if Ray Allen had been shooting near his season long shooting % of 40/34. Ask yourselves what if Doc had made the appropriate in-game adjustments. Ask yourselves how either DEN, UT, and SA would've matched up against ATL, CLE and DET.. While I realize that the W.Conf race was THE TIGHTEST race in a long time, you can't underestimate the strength of the E. Conf. I don't think the first two series' were an adequate representation of the Celts.. I think we should be focusing on the Det series more than the ATL or CLE series.
That said, the Lakers have their faults too. Odom, Fish, Gasol, Rad, Vuj, are all streaky. Kobe, we all know can turn it on at any time. Both teams can throw down on the defensive end when they struggle but we saw a Celts team come together how many times this post season and get it done when they needed to? How many times were the Lakers really tested. They faced a beat up SA team, who had a tougher series (mentally) v. the Suns than anyone gives credit and it took them 7 to get past the Bees.. That series may have gone another way had they faced SA earlier on in the playoffs with a healthy Ginobili.
Don't underestimate home court advantage. It's gonna be huge for Boston. They will be fired up in game one. If the Lakers can steal game one look out but I just don't see that happening. They might be able to steal game two but I doubt game one.
You can talk about coaching all you want but the players still have to execute.. Reverse line movement is always scary but action based solely on line movement is 50/50..
For what it's worth.. I like the Celts -2.5... FADE AWAY..
my thoughts exactly... the two most damning pieces of evidence in my mind... 1) line movement (and ML shrinkage) in opposition of public money 2) phil having a whole week to gameplan for one team.
let's get this change
LAL +3/ML Under 192
You 2 are right it's a reverse line change. Take the lakers for the game....
0
Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:
my thoughts exactly... the two most damning pieces of evidence in my mind... 1) line movement (and ML shrinkage) in opposition of public money 2) phil having a whole week to gameplan for one team.
let's get this change
LAL +3/ML Under 192
You 2 are right it's a reverse line change. Take the lakers for the game....
TONKTIME, you're about as worthless as used toiletpaper. Stop the stupid rants now and save yourself. We are here for USEFUL analysis...not worthless banter - and - you contribute nothing but garbage.
0
TONKTIME, you're about as worthless as used toiletpaper. Stop the stupid rants now and save yourself. We are here for USEFUL analysis...not worthless banter - and - you contribute nothing but garbage.
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TONKTIME, you're about as worthless as used toiletpaper. Stop the stupid rants now and save yourself. We are here for USEFUL analysis...not worthless banter - and - you contribute nothing but garbage.
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