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Boston at Los Angeles (06/10/2008)

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Posted: #151
Celtics vs. Lakers -9.5 (2 units) - not too strong of a bet because I think the spread is very high (I was expecting about 6.5).  The Lakers definitely need to get a win on the board and hault some of that momentum Boston gained in the first two games.  Phil Jackson can only blame the refs to a degree, but it's mostly his team's defense that is killing their chances.  Kobe has struggled in every game so far against the Celtics this season, he'll get his points but he might have to take 30 shots to do so.  Boston has also done an excellent job at limiting his touches in the paint/driving the lane... which also keep his FT chances to a minimum.  Yeah I know these reasons are pointing to the Celtics plus the points, but I'm merely mentioning the things the Lakers must do to take Game 3.  Big Phil already knows these things and will find a way to get it done, no matter how much I hate him and the Lakers.
 
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Posted: #152
now u can finally see LA's true colors....ive been saying the whole time that La's defense is overrated .....even against the spurs,LA won that series becuz of the spurs lack of offense not LA's defense.....boston came in this series as underdogs which is some bullshit.....then at home boston was just favored to win by 3pts game- 1....+1 in game 2.....now they go to LA as 9 point underdogs ,something they have never been the whole year???? thats ridiculous.....i agree that this is a must win for LA ,but favored by 9 points is CRAZY.....LA has not beat boston the whole year....which means they still have yet to prove themselves even for 9point favorite playing at STAPLES.......ill take them points.....PICK- BOS      
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by smalldaddy:

Too many factors to call over 195.5 for the totals. I don't think that the Fakers got a descent defense against the Celtics. They love to attack the Fakers defense. Lakers D is no good as the Cavs and Pistons D. I could see a lot of jump shot and 3 pt shots for both teams, this will gonna be all game 2's 4th quarter.

Over 195.5 for me   

what

 
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Posted: #154
AND ANYONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND COULD SEE THAT BOSTON PLAYED SOFT AFTER BUILDING A 22 POINT LEAD GOING INTO THE 4TH QTR....TO SAY THAT LA BUILT MOMENTUM AT THE END IS BULLSHIT.....IF BOSTON WOULD HAVE PLAYED HARD FOR 48MIN,THEY COULD HAVE EASILY WON BY 20PTS.   
 
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Posted: #155

The "refs" only have so much to do with the game.  They are not responsible for a shot falling in or rolling out, a steal, a block, a great pass, a great give & go, a great pick & roll, etc.

You all have to remember one thing.  These are players that are going home win or lose to tens of millions of dollars.   Do you really think they are going to let the "refs" or "TV" decide the games?  

This talk of "there must be a game 7 because TV has to recoup money, blah blah blah" is all complete and utter nonsense.  These players could care less and will play the game the way it should be played.   

Don't believe all the hype, especially tonight in Game 3.  

Should LA win tonight?   =   YES

Will LA win tonight?   = DON'T COUNT YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH!

This game will be closer than you guys think and the outcome can fall either way.  Watch.

 
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Posted: #156
Line down to 9 hopefully gets down to 8.5 so I can buy it down to 6 at -170
 
If it does
 
LAKERS -6   ALL DAY
 
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Posted: #157

See how Vegas is getting you guys all on LA big now? 

That is EXACTLY what they wanted.  

 
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Posted: #158
I think Lakers win this game, I don't think either team is good enough to win 3 in a row. That being said, 9 1/2 is to many points. I'm leaning towards the over, Lakers will get to the foul line more, cause they're at home. But, as rekamyenoM already said, I love the under 1st Q...  Now, I gotta go buy some beer...
 
 
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Posted: #159
5 point tease

LA -4

O191

&

LA-5 1st half Bougth .5
 
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Posted: #160
F it

Lakers -7 Buy down 2
 
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Posted: #161
Quote Originally Posted by MightyOregon:

i'd be very interested to see what CMJ has on this...


Funny you should ask. 

CELTICS BY 20!!
 
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Posted: #162

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:



Funny you should ask. 

CELTICS BY 20!!

Hommie? Have you started drinking already? By 20?  Now I know that even you don't believe that.....

 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:

FYI PEOPLE: Lakers are 8-0 in the postseason at Staples Center and unbeaten in 14 home games since March 28.

Back later with my final picks, but they are pretty mucch already set.

1.) Lakers ML

2.) Under 196

3.) Under 49 1stQ

 
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Posted: #164
I said I was done with the NBA this year after I won with Boston on the first game, then the second game... and now I'll ride the B-train one more time. Taking the Celtics + the points here.
 
CELTICS+10 (with a 1 point buy.) (4 units)
 
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Posted: #165
THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOOD GAME.  & THIS THREAD IS STARTED TO GET BETTER TOO.    LOOKS GOOD GENTLEMEN
 
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Posted: #166
Now for the serious analyis...I said before the series even started that Games 1 and 3 were going to be double digit wins by the home team.  Celtics won Game 1 by 10 points...and I pretty much expect the Lakers to do the same here.  Why you ask?

1.  Referees will be on the Lakers side this game in proportions that were not even close to what we saw in Game 2.  As bad as the refs were, many of the experts blame it on the Lakers passiveness after that 2nd quarter...Kobe got the 2 quick fouls and the entire team backed off and gave up on what worked great for them in the 1st quarter.  The Celtics continued to keep up the intensity and got the sympathy touch fouls.  The referees for this game are Joey Crawford, Bennett Salvatore, and Mark Wunderlich.   That should be enough reason right there....only thing that could make it worse is having Ken Mauer thrown in there.  Just sit back and enjoy Laker fans.  This is gonna be ugly for my C's.

2.  Lakers will feed off of the home crowd where they are undefeated in the playoffs.  This is the highest point spread they have faced however, which is strange.  The biggest reason why they are undefeated is their bench...yes OTown, their bench.  Vujacic, Farmar, and Walton somehow figure out how to play at Staples Center.



The biggest problem I see is that the Lakers are still a small team, and nothing is going to change that.  The Celtics have controlled Kobe Bryant in 7 of the 8 quarters in this series, and the only one where he got hot was where the Celtics weren't playing defense.  The Celtics bench has stepped up bigger than they have in any series, and are back to playing at their regular season pace.  

I said before the last game that it is usually Game 2 that defines what to do for the rest of the series.  The Celtics dominated that game, and all they need to do is win ONE game in L.A. because the Lakers are not coming back to Boston in Games 6 and 7 and winning both.  They just aren't.  But the Celtics won't win this game, because of the refs.  They are a better team because they play defense that shuts down the key areas from the Lakers.  Crawford and Salvatore will allow the Lakers to win this one.

What also happens is that when the refs take control of the game, they generally allow the losing team to make a run to keep the viewers in the game.  So the Lakers aren't winning this one by 15+ points IMO.

3-team teaser  (I really feel like this one ends @ 9 or 10...I'll avoid moose)

Lakers -1
Celtics +17
UNDER 204

Paul Pierce OVER 20.5 points (Lakers have no answer for THE TRUTH)
Lakers Team Total UNDER 102.5  (Celtics defense just too good)
Boston Celtics Score 1st  (Perkins wins most tips these playoffs)
UNDER 49 1st quarter  (If it ain't broke, don't fix it)

Small play on BOSTON ML @ +400 because if the C's win and fuck up all my other bets, it won't kill the bankroll.


Prediction:

Lakers  50  Celtics  48   Halftime

Lakers   96  Celtics   87  Final
 
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Posted: #167
Hey CMJ...are u serious with that pic?  I take what you have to say seriously every night...please tell me you are jokin
 
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Posted: #168
I'm a little bit hesitant towards the Lakers because every time I've gone against the C's...I've lost.
 
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Posted: #169
NICE WRITE UP CMJ.   I SEE WHERE YOU ARE COMING FROM.............
 
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Posted: #170
me too baby
 
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Posted: #171
Local line in Boston now Lakers -8.5
 
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Posted: #172
let it keep going down and take the lakers big!!
 
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Posted: #173

CMJ,

I agree with everything you said and actually like most of your picks. 

The Lakers should win this game however I don't think its going to be the "blowout" people are perceiving it to be!

 
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Posted: #174
9 1/2 is a lot of points. I'll take Boston & the points in this one.
The Lakers will probably win since it's at home, but not by 10 or more points.
 
 
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Posted: #175
Well, I assume it's pretty damn obvious to all of us that the Boston Celtics are going to win this series, because no matter what happens in LA, it has to go back there, if, it goes back there and the Lakers can't win there.

They're clearly, overmatched in this series and I agree that the biggest mismatch is on the defensive end for LA.  But they also happen to be overmatched physically in general, around the rim, on the boards and on the finishing of plays.  And ss much as I love Lamar Odom, he's had problem finishing all year anyway.

It was nice to see Gasol go at Garnett for a change.  If the Lakers have ANY chance of pulling off the impossible, he's got to do alot more of that.

Oh yeah, and it looks like the Celtics have a good a transition game as LA does as well . . . .

I absolutely agree with GoG that the Celtics series line is the safest play the rest of the way, and if the Lakers win tonight it drops to an even better bargain.

As far as tonight goes, the Lakers might have one or two tricks left up their sleeve.

Yes, Boston relaxed at the end of game two, but, the Lakers did do something different for the first time in this series and that was to play some small ball.

The went with Fisher, Kobe, and the 3 Euros, finally started jacking up some 3's and, surprise, surprise, putting Kobe on Pierce on the defensive end was actually effective and produced the only scoring drought so far for the dude who's clearly on his way to winning the series MVP award.

But the Lakers can only play small-ball for so long and if they continue to use Kobe on Pierce on the defensive end, it's going to make him less effective on offense.

But they can probably afford to do that tonight, because as ODub pointed out, benches do have a tendency to play better at home.  The Lakers will get more calls tonight, hit some 3's, shoot better from the field overall and find a way to win a close one.

And I actually like the over 195.5 tonight for the simple reason that LA can't seem to slow down Boston at all.

Good luck all tonight . . .

And future Laker homers take heart - next year will be different with the kid back in the line-up.




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