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    All Forums | Politics

    Trump, Georgia and military votes. Opportunity

    12 Next Last»
    jimrockford22
    nature1970
    DeezyAZ81
    sundance
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    12 Next Last»
     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 8:55 PM ET #1

    Betting markets say Biden will win GA.. Just recently to 1-to-5. Maybe even worse... Will be very very close... Has market factored in military votes? And even some overseas vote.. Active service is no longer R trump biased as you might think... But they might be in GA...fyi, AZ has swung hard for Trump in last few hours... As for entire election, markets have NV and PN as Biden for sure

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Betting markets say Biden will win GA.. Just recently to 1-to-5. Maybe even worse... Will be very very close... Has market factored in military votes? And even some overseas vote.. Active service is no longer R trump biased as you might think... But they might be in GA...fyi, AZ has swung hard for Trump in last few hours... As for entire election, markets have NV and PN as Biden for sure

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 8:56 PM ET #2

    FYI.. My comment is only gambling.. I think = the new Hitler

     

     

    Reply

    FYI.. My comment is only gambling.. I think = the new Hitler

     

     

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:13 PM ET #3

    • Clayton County: 5,726 (The early ballots lean heavily to Joe Biden.)
    • Cobb County: 700 (The early ballots lean to Biden. It's an Atlanta suburb that Hillary Clinton won by a small margin in 2016.)
    • Floyd County: 444 (The early ballots lean heavily to President Trump.)
    • Forsyth County: 4,713 (The early ballots lean heavily to Trump.)
    • Gwinnett County: 4,800 (The early ballots lean heavily to Biden.)
    • Laurens County: 1,797 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)
    • Taylor County: 456 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)
    • All that left in Georgia besides the 8900 unaccounted military votes. They have till tommorow night to be valid to arrive.
    Reply
    • Clayton County: 5,726 (The early ballots lean heavily to Joe Biden.)
    • Cobb County: 700 (The early ballots lean to Biden. It's an Atlanta suburb that Hillary Clinton won by a small margin in 2016.)
    • Floyd County: 444 (The early ballots lean heavily to President Trump.)
    • Forsyth County: 4,713 (The early ballots lean heavily to Trump.)
    • Gwinnett County: 4,800 (The early ballots lean heavily to Biden.)
    • Laurens County: 1,797 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)
    • Taylor County: 456 (The early ballots lean to Trump.)
    • All that left in Georgia besides the 8900 unaccounted military votes. They have till tommorow night to be valid to arrive.
     
    nature1970
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:14 PM ET #4

    2500 separate this contest.

     

    Reply

    2500 separate this contest.

     

     
    DeezyAZ81
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:16 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    Betting markets say Biden will win GA.. Just recently to 1-to-5. Maybe even worse... Will be very very close... Has market factored in military votes? And even some overseas vote.. Active service is no longer R trump biased as you might think... But they might be in GA...fyi, AZ has swung hard for Trump in last few hours... As for entire election, markets have NV and PN as Biden for sure

    Arizona will still be Biden, even if Trump makes up the 47k in Maricopa in next 12 hours, Biden will win Pima County, and Flagstaff 65k combined votes easily, which will carry him to victory later when they are counted. Just for betting opportunities there is still great opportunity for Biden if odds are going down there. an_light

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    Betting markets say Biden will win GA.. Just recently to 1-to-5. Maybe even worse... Will be very very close... Has market factored in military votes? And even some overseas vote.. Active service is no longer R trump biased as you might think... But they might be in GA...fyi, AZ has swung hard for Trump in last few hours... As for entire election, markets have NV and PN as Biden for sure

    Arizona will still be Biden, even if Trump makes up the 47k in Maricopa in next 12 hours, Biden will win Pima County, and Flagstaff 65k combined votes easily, which will carry him to victory later when they are counted. Just for betting opportunities there is still great opportunity for Biden if odds are going down there. an_light

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:17 PM ET #6

    Nature, thx so much... What is the vote margin at same time as those small number of GA votes left?

    Reply

    Nature, thx so much... What is the vote margin at same time as those small number of GA votes left?

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:19 PM ET #7

    That was updated 12 min ago. The suburbs in Atlanta are running 70 30... but it so tight I believe a mandatory recount will be ordered.

    Reply

    That was updated 12 min ago. The suburbs in Atlanta are running 70 30... but it so tight I believe a mandatory recount will be ordered.

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:22 PM ET #8

    @DeezyAZ81

     Thx for AZ color...  AZ is Biden 4-to-9 on Will-Hill (I just use this site for consistency)

    Nate Cohn at NYT echo your comment...AZ improving too slowly for DJT... And as u mentioned it may stay as gap narrowing anyway

    @jimrockford22

     

    Reply

    @DeezyAZ81

     Thx for AZ color...  AZ is Biden 4-to-9 on Will-Hill (I just use this site for consistency)

    Nate Cohn at NYT echo your comment...AZ improving too slowly for DJT... And as u mentioned it may stay as gap narrowing anyway

    @jimrockford22

     

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:23 PM ET #9

    This can be called tonight if Georgia and Pennsylvania finish the count. ... Nevada seems  trending for Biden.  And Arizona looks like mass and Pennsylvania trading fire with rebs in Gettysburg neither seems to be effective in gaining the momentum with roughly 400000 votes yet to be determined.  

    If.it.all falls to Nevada we might have to wait for.next week they will accept.all ballots.postmarked until election till veterans day.

    Reply

    This can be called tonight if Georgia and Pennsylvania finish the count. ... Nevada seems  trending for Biden.  And Arizona looks like mass and Pennsylvania trading fire with rebs in Gettysburg neither seems to be effective in gaining the momentum with roughly 400000 votes yet to be determined.  

    If.it.all falls to Nevada we might have to wait for.next week they will accept.all ballots.postmarked until election till veterans day.

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:28 PM ET #10

    Can we all agree we should have a well regulated systematic 50 state same rules for national election the laws from state to state is at best incredibly confusing.

    We have national.campaign laws maybe we should adopt national voting laws. In maine you can be convicted of a class a felony doing life withpuy possibility of parole and vote

    Louisiana any felon is ineligible  for a.example....

    Some can have a runoff some a plurality and here ranked choice. And ballots can be accepted for a week after the election is really a bit too much for.my taste in this affair...

    Reply

    Can we all agree we should have a well regulated systematic 50 state same rules for national election the laws from state to state is at best incredibly confusing.

    We have national.campaign laws maybe we should adopt national voting laws. In maine you can be convicted of a class a felony doing life withpuy possibility of parole and vote

    Louisiana any felon is ineligible  for a.example....

    Some can have a runoff some a plurality and here ranked choice. And ballots can be accepted for a week after the election is really a bit too much for.my taste in this affair...

     
    DeezyAZ81
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:42 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    @DeezyAZ81  Thx for AZ color...  AZ is Biden 4-to-9 on Will-Hill (I just use this site for consistency) Nate Cohn at NYT echo your comment...AZ improving too slowly for DJT... And as u mentioned it may stay as gap narrowing anyway @jimrockford22

    No problem. Keeping an eye on it out here in AZ. Demographically, it just seems unlikely for Trump. Pima is mostly Mexican and more liberal with college there. Flagstaff no chance. Not enough votes in Maricopa for Trump to win it. However, it's still about -250 Biden at my book, so do not really think it's worth.

    Nature: As fo PA, Biden will probably end up winning Pennsylvania by 90-100k votes because of distribution of votes across blue counties. It will be called in the morning likely. Then watch the shennanigans begin from the Trump side. peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    @DeezyAZ81  Thx for AZ color...  AZ is Biden 4-to-9 on Will-Hill (I just use this site for consistency) Nate Cohn at NYT echo your comment...AZ improving too slowly for DJT... And as u mentioned it may stay as gap narrowing anyway @jimrockford22

    No problem. Keeping an eye on it out here in AZ. Demographically, it just seems unlikely for Trump. Pima is mostly Mexican and more liberal with college there. Flagstaff no chance. Not enough votes in Maricopa for Trump to win it. However, it's still about -250 Biden at my book, so do not really think it's worth.

    Nature: As fo PA, Biden will probably end up winning Pennsylvania by 90-100k votes because of distribution of votes across blue counties. It will be called in the morning likely. Then watch the shennanigans begin from the Trump side. peace_5

     
    nature1970
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:43 PM ET #12

    2447243 for Trump 2445321 biden about 1900 votes separate them and neither has the 50.0 percent because votes were sent to a third candidate. 

    Reply

    2447243 for Trump 2445321 biden about 1900 votes separate them and neither has the 50.0 percent because votes were sent to a third candidate. 

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:47 PM ET #13

    A win in Pennsylvania  wins this election for BIDEN.  Trump literally must sweep everthing left but Arizona.   

    The national vote is the highest ever....

    Reply

    A win in Pennsylvania  wins this election for BIDEN.  Trump literally must sweep everthing left but Arizona.   

    The national vote is the highest ever....

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:52 PM ET #14

    thx for the color, guys

    biden now 4-11 in Arizona.

     

    here are representative prices for the states, as well as some extreme prices.

     

    biden for the entire election 1-12 (i see at least one 1-to-25)

     

    all these prices are biden:

     

    Az 4-11

    Ga 1-7 as i said, so close and miltary vote to come... unfort, you won't get 7 to 1 on other side

    Pa 1-14 (lots of 1 to 25's)

    nevada 1-33 

    FYI, North Carolina is 1 to 12 Trump

     

     

     

     

    Reply

    thx for the color, guys

    biden now 4-11 in Arizona.

     

    here are representative prices for the states, as well as some extreme prices.

     

    biden for the entire election 1-12 (i see at least one 1-to-25)

     

    all these prices are biden:

     

    Az 4-11

    Ga 1-7 as i said, so close and miltary vote to come... unfort, you won't get 7 to 1 on other side

    Pa 1-14 (lots of 1 to 25's)

    nevada 1-33 

    FYI, North Carolina is 1 to 12 Trump

     

     

     

     

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:52 PM ET #15

    do you need 50% in Georgia to win the EC? seen that on the senate.... SEEN NO TALK of that for EC 

    Reply

    do you need 50% in Georgia to win the EC? seen that on the senate.... SEEN NO TALK of that for EC 

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:53 PM ET #16

    do people think if fox news (and all the other networks) call nevada for biden, that Fox News will call the election for Biden? (the idea is that Fox called Arizona really early.. haven't seen this retract it, but haven't looked)

    Reply

    do people think if fox news (and all the other networks) call nevada for biden, that Fox News will call the election for Biden? (the idea is that Fox called Arizona really early.. haven't seen this retract it, but haven't looked)

     
    sundance
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 9:59 PM ET #17

    Fox stands by their horrible call. Trump has a chance to win Arizona. All heck will break loose if Arizona shifts from Biden to Trump!

    Reply

    Fox stands by their horrible call. Trump has a chance to win Arizona. All heck will break loose if Arizona shifts from Biden to Trump!

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:03 PM ET #18

    The big purse has yet to come for Biden

    Nate Hendrick reports at 947pm.

    Biden may pull into the lead in Georgia tonight. According to CNN, Clayton County plans to release results from its 5,700 outstanding ballots by midnight. Biden won the last batch of Clayton votes 87 percent to 13 percent; if he wins the remainder by the same amount, he’d net about 4,300 votes. Trump’s current Georgia lead is only 2,497 votes.    ,.., Another 2 hours ,.., 

    Reply

    The big purse has yet to come for Biden

    Nate Hendrick reports at 947pm.

    Biden may pull into the lead in Georgia tonight. According to CNN, Clayton County plans to release results from its 5,700 outstanding ballots by midnight. Biden won the last batch of Clayton votes 87 percent to 13 percent; if he wins the remainder by the same amount, he’d net about 4,300 votes. Trump’s current Georgia lead is only 2,497 votes.    ,.., Another 2 hours ,.., 

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:03 PM ET #19

    @sundance

     even as a trump hater, i agree Fox News Arizona call was really bad.......  i'm guessing they will hold off on nevada or rescind arizona call.. they will probably be saved as penn and arizona may be called before nevada... or maybe with combos of military/overseas/late acceptance rules, no states will call anything for awhile.

     

    honestly, i am thinking they should change it to all states just report 100% 10 days after election. and hold some votes back in close states so no one knows the outcome of close states in advance..... would solve alot of problems... but what would John King at CNN (he does a great job) do?

    Reply

    @sundance

     even as a trump hater, i agree Fox News Arizona call was really bad.......  i'm guessing they will hold off on nevada or rescind arizona call.. they will probably be saved as penn and arizona may be called before nevada... or maybe with combos of military/overseas/late acceptance rules, no states will call anything for awhile.

     

    honestly, i am thinking they should change it to all states just report 100% 10 days after election. and hold some votes back in close states so no one knows the outcome of close states in advance..... would solve alot of problems... but what would John King at CNN (he does a great job) do?

     
    DeezyAZ81
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:04 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    do people think if fox news (and all the other networks) call nevada for biden, that Fox News will call the election for Biden? (the idea is that Fox called Arizona really early.. haven't seen this retract it, but haven't looked)

    Fox is still standing by Arizona, and have been all day. They know it is unlikely that Trump wins it. I estimate Biden will win AZ by 20-25k votes like he did in Wisconsin. It will get tighter but, ultimately, he will fall short. They won't call Nevada because I think there is so many outstanding votes, and less is known about the demographics and types of votes, mail-in versus drop off etc.. Again, it won't matter in the end because Biden will win PA by early morning. an_light

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    do people think if fox news (and all the other networks) call nevada for biden, that Fox News will call the election for Biden? (the idea is that Fox called Arizona really early.. haven't seen this retract it, but haven't looked)

    Fox is still standing by Arizona, and have been all day. They know it is unlikely that Trump wins it. I estimate Biden will win AZ by 20-25k votes like he did in Wisconsin. It will get tighter but, ultimately, he will fall short. They won't call Nevada because I think there is so many outstanding votes, and less is known about the demographics and types of votes, mail-in versus drop off etc.. Again, it won't matter in the end because Biden will win PA by early morning. an_light

     
    nature1970
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:07 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    @sundance  even as a trump hater, i agree Fox News Arizona call was really bad.......  i'm guessing they will hold off on nevada or rescind arizona call.. they will probably be saved as penn and arizona may be called before nevada... or maybe with combos of military/overseas/late acceptance rules, no states will call anything for awhile.   honestly, i am thinking they should change it to all states just report 100% 10 days after election. and hold some votes back in close states so no one knows the outcome of close states in advance..... would solve alot of problems... but what would John King at CNN (he does a great job) do?
    here  we have a republican and democrat cpunt the same stack of ballots. Unyil yhe numbers are equal if a ballot doesnt have a clear choice it set aside for furthur examinatiin.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by jimrockford22:

    @sundance  even as a trump hater, i agree Fox News Arizona call was really bad.......  i'm guessing they will hold off on nevada or rescind arizona call.. they will probably be saved as penn and arizona may be called before nevada... or maybe with combos of military/overseas/late acceptance rules, no states will call anything for awhile.   honestly, i am thinking they should change it to all states just report 100% 10 days after election. and hold some votes back in close states so no one knows the outcome of close states in advance..... would solve alot of problems... but what would John King at CNN (he does a great job) do?
    here  we have a republican and democrat cpunt the same stack of ballots. Unyil yhe numbers are equal if a ballot doesnt have a clear choice it set aside for furthur examinatiin.

     
    nature1970
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:21 PM ET #22

    Here in maine we have a republican and democrat count the ballots the number has to remain the same or they immediately recount them. If a ballot has not been clearly marked. It happens.pens run out of.ink it is set aside from the group.  Then if necessary reexamine by a group needing all the same opinion. 

    Auto correct malfunctions that last one.

    Reply

    Here in maine we have a republican and democrat count the ballots the number has to remain the same or they immediately recount them. If a ballot has not been clearly marked. It happens.pens run out of.ink it is set aside from the group.  Then if necessary reexamine by a group needing all the same opinion. 

    Auto correct malfunctions that last one.

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:21 PM ET #23

    I meant states shouldn't release interim voting totals...every state should release their full results 2 weeks after election. And some safeguards against leaks... Or not intern vote counts until we have a winner

    Reply

    I meant states shouldn't release interim voting totals...every state should release their full results 2 weeks after election. And some safeguards against leaks... Or not intern vote counts until we have a winner

     
    nature1970
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:24 PM ET #24

    Something because this.fiasco is utterly ridiculous as for a.run off election for.presidency in Georgia I given up trying to see if it's possible if neither candidate gains a.clear majority...

    Senate yes president not sure...

    Reply

    Something because this.fiasco is utterly ridiculous as for a.run off election for.presidency in Georgia I given up trying to see if it's possible if neither candidate gains a.clear majority...

    Senate yes president not sure...

     
     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Nov. 5, 2020 - 10:27 PM ET #25

    No Georgia runoff for president.... Almost certainly a recount, as noted

    Reply

    No Georgia runoff for president.... Almost certainly a recount, as noted

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