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    All Forums | Politics

    Presidential Election

    «First Previous 222324 ... 394041 Next Last»
    DogbiteWilliams
    Europa
    Inyourlife16
    ClubDirt
    mylife23
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 40566
    Posts: 1017
    «First Previous 222324 ... 394041 Next Last»
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 1:51 PM ET #526

    Why Trump could win in Iowa:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/28/why-trump-could-win-in-iowa/

    The GOP establishment in Iowa provides Trump more support than in most other swing states.  Trump plus a generous number might cash a ticket.
    Reply
    Why Trump could win in Iowa:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/28/why-trump-could-win-in-iowa/

    The GOP establishment in Iowa provides Trump more support than in most other swing states.  Trump plus a generous number might cash a ticket.
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 1:54 PM ET #527

    Trump is running way behind with Catholics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/28/donald-trump-has-a-massive-catholic-problem/

    Romney lost Catholics by just 2 points.  Trump is currently down by 23 points.
    Reply
    Trump is running way behind with Catholics:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/28/donald-trump-has-a-massive-catholic-problem/

    Romney lost Catholics by just 2 points.  Trump is currently down by 23 points.
     
    Europa
    Europa
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 2:07 PM ET #528

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Why Trump could win in Iowa:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/28/why-trump-could-win-in-iowa/

    The GOP establishment in Iowa provides Trump more support than in most other swing states.  Trump plus a generous number might cash a ticket.

    Republican candidate is +180 to win Iowa, so +180 is a generous number for anyone who thinks Trump can win Iowa. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    Why Trump could win in Iowa:

    https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/28/why-trump-could-win-in-iowa/

    The GOP establishment in Iowa provides Trump more support than in most other swing states.  Trump plus a generous number might cash a ticket.

    Republican candidate is +180 to win Iowa, so +180 is a generous number for anyone who thinks Trump can win Iowa. 
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 2:26 PM ET #529

    Heather Higgins, the President and CEO of Independent Women's Voice, wrote an essay saying that her "money" is on a Trump victory.  The liberal Huffington Post posted it.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/heather-higgins/my-money-is-on-a-trump-vi_b_11761190.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2016
    Reply
    Heather Higgins, the President and CEO of Independent Women's Voice, wrote an essay saying that her "money" is on a Trump victory.  The liberal Huffington Post posted it.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/heather-higgins/my-money-is-on-a-trump-vi_b_11761190.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2016
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 3:00 PM ET #530

    There are many articles describing the Democrats' strong ground organization in Iowa, but the Republicans have gained a bit in voter registration changes:

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/28/iowa-secretary-of-state-details-voter-registration-shits-ahead-of-caucuses/
    Reply
    There are many articles describing the Democrats' strong ground organization in Iowa, but the Republicans have gained a bit in voter registration changes:

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/28/iowa-secretary-of-state-details-voter-registration-shits-ahead-of-caucuses/
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Aug. 29, 2016 - 3:10 PM ET #531

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    There are many articles describing the Democrats' strong ground organization in Iowa, but the Republicans have gained a bit in voter registration changes:

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/28/iowa-secretary-of-state-details-voter-registration-shits-ahead-of-caucuses/
    I like how the "f" in "shifts" was omitted in the URL address.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    There are many articles describing the Democrats' strong ground organization in Iowa, but the Republicans have gained a bit in voter registration changes:

    https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/28/iowa-secretary-of-state-details-voter-registration-shits-ahead-of-caucuses/
    I like how the "f" in "shifts" was omitted in the URL address.
     
    Inyourlife16
    Inyourlife16
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 12:39 PM ET #532

    Bovada had the D at -450 for a while. Dropped to -400 last week. Dropped to -325 overnight.
    Reply
    Bovada had the D at -450 for a while. Dropped to -400 last week. Dropped to -325 overnight.
     
    Inyourlife16
    Inyourlife16
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 1:45 PM ET #533

    ABCNews reporting that HRC's unfavorable numbers on the rise. Up 6 points over the past 3 weeks. Her unfavorables now pretty close to Trump's unfavorables.


    Reply
    ABCNews reporting that HRC's unfavorable numbers on the rise. Up 6 points over the past 3 weeks. Her unfavorables now pretty close to Trump's unfavorables.


     
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 2:03 PM ET #534

    Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

    Bovada had the D at -450 for a while. Dropped to -400 last week. Dropped to -325 overnight.


    yeah, based on the big news here, the line has dropped.  surprisingly, this angle hasn't had much success in the past.  i have most of my money tied up in two state races but i might bite on the line if it stays near -300.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michele-bachmann-donald-trump-god_us_57c63d13e4b078581f100ef0



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:

    Bovada had the D at -450 for a while. Dropped to -400 last week. Dropped to -325 overnight.


    yeah, based on the big news here, the line has dropped.  surprisingly, this angle hasn't had much success in the past.  i have most of my money tied up in two state races but i might bite on the line if it stays near -300.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/michele-bachmann-donald-trump-god_us_57c63d13e4b078581f100ef0



     
    mylife23
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 3:16 PM ET #535

    Vanzack accurately points out the demographic in this country has drastically changed in the past 20 years. I'd point out non-Caucasian numbers have dwindled post-World War II. Despite all the country's faults there are very few lands where you can be a part of a large money grab and establish an independent life for yourself relatively speaking. 

    All this conversation about pivotal states based on electoral votes is nonsense to me in 2016. I believe a social revolution has made any state up for grabs and it's benefitting Democrats. All Trump can do is remain focused, discuss policies which are not detrimental to the homeland, and embarrass her in debates. 

    Trump knows how to be a character and revels being in front of cameras. We know Hillary Clinton is not a good actress and doesn't captivate audiences too often.

    The 1970s and early 1980s are relics of the past. Look at the election maps from those years. I'm Caucasian and in my third decade on Earth and I barely recognize California (where I was born and reared) so I can only imagine looking at it through my folks perspective.

    Caucasians from Europe are the current Native Americans here. They grabbed it from the indigenous peoples and now are being outnumbered with new eras of migration from other parts of the globe. 

    Don't get it confused, I'm not a racist and I have read other posts and threads in here where people label Trump as a bigoted, cranky white guy tired of what liberal and progressives have done to America.

    Trump's own lineage isn't traced back to the Puritans and Quakers in Massachusetts. I wonder if Obummer knows how isolationist Massachusetts Bay Colony originally was for all its BS aesthetics as he keeps tearing up greens with his irons at overpriced golf courses on "vacation."

    Trump's grandparents arrived from Germany. He's another European Caucasian who possesses nationalist values and wants to reverse the nation's course. So he's like me and other Caucasians who don't trace back to the 16th century. 

    Too many defined this as Trump being part of a Caucasian population who have dominated this country for too long. So because Trump is a jingoist automatically qualifies him as white supremacist? What is Black Lives and the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)? They wouldn't happen to be motivated by anything racial correct? 

    This election is akin to 1964 when Lyndon Johnson demolished Barry Goldwater. There is a clear dichotomy between each candidate, but the demographics of America side with the Democratic Party. That's what free speech gets you. However, Clinton's transgressions should not make this a route. Trump has a fighter's chance and that is who he is. Let him win or lose in that fashion.

    Hillary is brilliant, ipso facto, plays to her strengths. If she wins, voters will owe a debt of gratitude to Obama, Clinton, and silent power groups for ruining a country's identity. 

    Trump gets my vote but he faces long odds. If he emphasizes stances which benefit America, then bests her on television, he might become a live underdog. Either way I love the attempt he made.

    Somebody had to do it and he did it with popular votes. Battled against his own party and eschewed lobbyist, PACs, and special interest crap. That's why he attained nomination.

    I fancy a Trumpy win so all the psychotic Hollywood millionaires and billionaires leave the country. Streisand, O'Donnell, Sarandon, De Niro, Clooney, and Streep to name a few. Let them fly coach one way to Antarctica. 



    Reply
    Vanzack accurately points out the demographic in this country has drastically changed in the past 20 years. I'd point out non-Caucasian numbers have dwindled post-World War II. Despite all the country's faults there are very few lands where you can be a part of a large money grab and establish an independent life for yourself relatively speaking. 

    All this conversation about pivotal states based on electoral votes is nonsense to me in 2016. I believe a social revolution has made any state up for grabs and it's benefitting Democrats. All Trump can do is remain focused, discuss policies which are not detrimental to the homeland, and embarrass her in debates. 

    Trump knows how to be a character and revels being in front of cameras. We know Hillary Clinton is not a good actress and doesn't captivate audiences too often.

    The 1970s and early 1980s are relics of the past. Look at the election maps from those years. I'm Caucasian and in my third decade on Earth and I barely recognize California (where I was born and reared) so I can only imagine looking at it through my folks perspective.

    Caucasians from Europe are the current Native Americans here. They grabbed it from the indigenous peoples and now are being outnumbered with new eras of migration from other parts of the globe. 

    Don't get it confused, I'm not a racist and I have read other posts and threads in here where people label Trump as a bigoted, cranky white guy tired of what liberal and progressives have done to America.

    Trump's own lineage isn't traced back to the Puritans and Quakers in Massachusetts. I wonder if Obummer knows how isolationist Massachusetts Bay Colony originally was for all its BS aesthetics as he keeps tearing up greens with his irons at overpriced golf courses on "vacation."

    Trump's grandparents arrived from Germany. He's another European Caucasian who possesses nationalist values and wants to reverse the nation's course. So he's like me and other Caucasians who don't trace back to the 16th century. 

    Too many defined this as Trump being part of a Caucasian population who have dominated this country for too long. So because Trump is a jingoist automatically qualifies him as white supremacist? What is Black Lives and the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)? They wouldn't happen to be motivated by anything racial correct? 

    This election is akin to 1964 when Lyndon Johnson demolished Barry Goldwater. There is a clear dichotomy between each candidate, but the demographics of America side with the Democratic Party. That's what free speech gets you. However, Clinton's transgressions should not make this a route. Trump has a fighter's chance and that is who he is. Let him win or lose in that fashion.

    Hillary is brilliant, ipso facto, plays to her strengths. If she wins, voters will owe a debt of gratitude to Obama, Clinton, and silent power groups for ruining a country's identity. 

    Trump gets my vote but he faces long odds. If he emphasizes stances which benefit America, then bests her on television, he might become a live underdog. Either way I love the attempt he made.

    Somebody had to do it and he did it with popular votes. Battled against his own party and eschewed lobbyist, PACs, and special interest crap. That's why he attained nomination.

    I fancy a Trumpy win so all the psychotic Hollywood millionaires and billionaires leave the country. Streisand, O'Donnell, Sarandon, De Niro, Clooney, and Streep to name a few. Let them fly coach one way to Antarctica. 



     
    dl36
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 3:23 PM ET #536

    By her logic God selected Obama as his president twice.  It is nice that we have had God's choice as president twice.  So as god's president his opposition must be the devil worshipers that have worked against Obama, GOd's chosen president creating lies and vile rhetoric as hateful and angry followers of satan. 

    No wonder the approval ratings of the oppositional legislative branch is rated as so poorly,  the tea party is a joke and the GOP is in complete shambles.   I guess that's what's happen when you are doing the work of the devil opposing god's choice as president in Obama 


    Reply
    By her logic God selected Obama as his president twice.  It is nice that we have had God's choice as president twice.  So as god's president his opposition must be the devil worshipers that have worked against Obama, GOd's chosen president creating lies and vile rhetoric as hateful and angry followers of satan. 

    No wonder the approval ratings of the oppositional legislative branch is rated as so poorly,  the tea party is a joke and the GOP is in complete shambles.   I guess that's what's happen when you are doing the work of the devil opposing god's choice as president in Obama 


     
    Killer_B
    Killer_B
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    Joined: Jan, 2007
    Posts: 6295
    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 3:29 PM ET #537

    Written by a true non-partisan independent... YEAH RIGHT....
    Reply
    Written by a true non-partisan independent... YEAH RIGHT....
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
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    Posts: 6424
    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 4:47 PM ET #538

    Quote Originally Posted by mylife23:

    Vanzack accurately points out the demographic in this country has drastically changed in the past 20 years. I'd point out non-Caucasian numbers have dwindled post-World War II. Despite all the country's faults there are very few lands where you can be a part of a large money grab and establish an independent life for yourself relatively speaking. 

    All this conversation about pivotal states based on electoral votes is nonsense to me in 2016. I believe a social revolution has made any state up for grabs and it's benefitting Democrats. All Trump can do is remain focused, discuss policies which are not detrimental to the homeland, and embarrass her in debates. 

    Trump knows how to be a character and revels being in front of cameras. We know Hillary Clinton is not a good actress and doesn't captivate audiences too often.

    The 1970s and early 1980s are relics of the past. Look at the election maps from those years. I'm Caucasian and in my third decade on Earth and I barely recognize California (where I was born and reared) so I can only imagine looking at it through my folks perspective.

    Caucasians from Europe are the current Native Americans here. They grabbed it from the indigenous peoples and now are being outnumbered with new eras of migration from other parts of the globe. 

    Don't get it confused, I'm not a racist and I have read other posts and threads in here where people label Trump as a bigoted, cranky white guy tired of what liberal and progressives have done to America.

    Trump's own lineage isn't traced back to the Puritans and Quakers in Massachusetts. I wonder if Obummer knows how isolationist Massachusetts Bay Colony originally was for all its BS aesthetics as he keeps tearing up greens with his irons at overpriced golf courses on "vacation."

    Trump's grandparents arrived from Germany. He's another European Caucasian who possesses nationalist values and wants to reverse the nation's course. So he's like me and other Caucasians who don't trace back to the 16th century. 

    Too many defined this as Trump being part of a Caucasian population who have dominated this country for too long. So because Trump is a jingoist automatically qualifies him as white supremacist? What is Black Lives and the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)? They wouldn't happen to be motivated by anything racial correct? 

    This election is akin to 1964 when Lyndon Johnson demolished Barry Goldwater. There is a clear dichotomy between each candidate, but the demographics of America side with the Democratic Party. That's what free speech gets you. However, Clinton's transgressions should not make this a route. Trump has a fighter's chance and that is who he is. Let him win or lose in that fashion.

    Hillary is brilliant, ipso facto, plays to her strengths. If she wins, voters will owe a debt of gratitude to Obama, Clinton, and silent power groups for ruining a country's identity. 

    Trump gets my vote but he faces long odds. If he emphasizes stances which benefit America, then bests her on television, he might become a live underdog. Either way I love the attempt he made.

    Somebody had to do it and he did it with popular votes. Battled against his own party and eschewed lobbyist, PACs, and special interest crap. That's why he attained nomination.

    I fancy a Trumpy win so all the psychotic Hollywood millionaires and billionaires leave the country. Streisand, O'Donnell, Sarandon, De Niro, Clooney, and Streep to name a few. Let them fly coach one way to Antarctica. 




    excepting for the first sentence this makes no sense at all. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by mylife23:

    Vanzack accurately points out the demographic in this country has drastically changed in the past 20 years. I'd point out non-Caucasian numbers have dwindled post-World War II. Despite all the country's faults there are very few lands where you can be a part of a large money grab and establish an independent life for yourself relatively speaking. 

    All this conversation about pivotal states based on electoral votes is nonsense to me in 2016. I believe a social revolution has made any state up for grabs and it's benefitting Democrats. All Trump can do is remain focused, discuss policies which are not detrimental to the homeland, and embarrass her in debates. 

    Trump knows how to be a character and revels being in front of cameras. We know Hillary Clinton is not a good actress and doesn't captivate audiences too often.

    The 1970s and early 1980s are relics of the past. Look at the election maps from those years. I'm Caucasian and in my third decade on Earth and I barely recognize California (where I was born and reared) so I can only imagine looking at it through my folks perspective.

    Caucasians from Europe are the current Native Americans here. They grabbed it from the indigenous peoples and now are being outnumbered with new eras of migration from other parts of the globe. 

    Don't get it confused, I'm not a racist and I have read other posts and threads in here where people label Trump as a bigoted, cranky white guy tired of what liberal and progressives have done to America.

    Trump's own lineage isn't traced back to the Puritans and Quakers in Massachusetts. I wonder if Obummer knows how isolationist Massachusetts Bay Colony originally was for all its BS aesthetics as he keeps tearing up greens with his irons at overpriced golf courses on "vacation."

    Trump's grandparents arrived from Germany. He's another European Caucasian who possesses nationalist values and wants to reverse the nation's course. So he's like me and other Caucasians who don't trace back to the 16th century. 

    Too many defined this as Trump being part of a Caucasian population who have dominated this country for too long. So because Trump is a jingoist automatically qualifies him as white supremacist? What is Black Lives and the AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)? They wouldn't happen to be motivated by anything racial correct? 

    This election is akin to 1964 when Lyndon Johnson demolished Barry Goldwater. There is a clear dichotomy between each candidate, but the demographics of America side with the Democratic Party. That's what free speech gets you. However, Clinton's transgressions should not make this a route. Trump has a fighter's chance and that is who he is. Let him win or lose in that fashion.

    Hillary is brilliant, ipso facto, plays to her strengths. If she wins, voters will owe a debt of gratitude to Obama, Clinton, and silent power groups for ruining a country's identity. 

    Trump gets my vote but he faces long odds. If he emphasizes stances which benefit America, then bests her on television, he might become a live underdog. Either way I love the attempt he made.

    Somebody had to do it and he did it with popular votes. Battled against his own party and eschewed lobbyist, PACs, and special interest crap. That's why he attained nomination.

    I fancy a Trumpy win so all the psychotic Hollywood millionaires and billionaires leave the country. Streisand, O'Donnell, Sarandon, De Niro, Clooney, and Streep to name a few. Let them fly coach one way to Antarctica. 




    excepting for the first sentence this makes no sense at all. 
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:12 PM ET #539

    I gotta be honest....

    I have been watching this Trump / Mexico visit today and I must say as a HRC bettor this kind of thing makes me very nervous.

    I have no idea how he pulled this off - but I think he looks very good. 

    First off - he was invited and very quickly went to Mexico.  The fact that he is nimble - and does something like this - can be played easily as a renegade move that will appeal to the anti "business as usual" voters who know HRC would hem and haw for a month and then go and have some ceremonial visit.

    Then...  He has the President of Mexico on the same stage with him not killing him!  Really?  I must say - I am impressed he pulled this off.  Dont forget he has been insulting Mexico and Mexicans for a year now.  I get that Pena is wildly unpopular - but this plays right in to the Trump narrative of I GET DEALS DONE.

    You never know how something is going to resonate - that is crystal ball stuff - but I must say.....

    I will be watching this system closely......

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    I gotta be honest....

    I have been watching this Trump / Mexico visit today and I must say as a HRC bettor this kind of thing makes me very nervous.

    I have no idea how he pulled this off - but I think he looks very good. 

    First off - he was invited and very quickly went to Mexico.  The fact that he is nimble - and does something like this - can be played easily as a renegade move that will appeal to the anti "business as usual" voters who know HRC would hem and haw for a month and then go and have some ceremonial visit.

    Then...  He has the President of Mexico on the same stage with him not killing him!  Really?  I must say - I am impressed he pulled this off.  Dont forget he has been insulting Mexico and Mexicans for a year now.  I get that Pena is wildly unpopular - but this plays right in to the Trump narrative of I GET DEALS DONE.

    You never know how something is going to resonate - that is crystal ball stuff - but I must say.....

    I will be watching this system closely......

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:19 PM ET #540

    Odds currently right at -300 / +310 on Betfair.

    Betfair is my benchmark odds site - and this is the lowest odds in quite a while....
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Odds currently right at -300 / +310 on Betfair.

    Betfair is my benchmark odds site - and this is the lowest odds in quite a while....
     
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:23 PM ET #541

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Odds currently right at -300 / +310 on Betfair.

    Betfair is my benchmark odds site - and this is the lowest odds in quite a while....


    yeah, but you had to figure the race would tighten for a couple of reasons.  the post convention bounce comes back a little.  the media need to fill airspace for two plus months so they will focus more on hillary.   and trump can't be a complete fuckup every day.

    i think this is a natural regression.  and possibly a decent buying opportunity. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Odds currently right at -300 / +310 on Betfair.

    Betfair is my benchmark odds site - and this is the lowest odds in quite a while....


    yeah, but you had to figure the race would tighten for a couple of reasons.  the post convention bounce comes back a little.  the media need to fill airspace for two plus months so they will focus more on hillary.   and trump can't be a complete fuckup every day.

    i think this is a natural regression.  and possibly a decent buying opportunity. 
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:26 PM ET #542

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



    yeah, but you had to figure the race would tighten for a couple of reasons.  the post convention bounce comes back a little.  the media need to fill airspace for two plus months so they will focus more on hillary.   and trump can't be a complete fuckup every day.

    i think this is a natural regression.  and possibly a decent buying opportunity. 

    Possibly.

    But you cant get away from the fact that in a race between two very unfavorables the variance is higher than in a race between two loved candidates.

    I think there are wild swings to come.

    This will be more like a Tesla stock chart ;) than an IBM stock chart.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:



    yeah, but you had to figure the race would tighten for a couple of reasons.  the post convention bounce comes back a little.  the media need to fill airspace for two plus months so they will focus more on hillary.   and trump can't be a complete fuckup every day.

    i think this is a natural regression.  and possibly a decent buying opportunity. 

    Possibly.

    But you cant get away from the fact that in a race between two very unfavorables the variance is higher than in a race between two loved candidates.

    I think there are wild swings to come.

    This will be more like a Tesla stock chart ;) than an IBM stock chart.

     
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:32 PM ET #543

    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 


    Reply
    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 


     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:38 PM ET #544

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 



    The part about the math and the demographics and the electoral college is where my money is.  Totally agree.  Trumps visit to Mexico isnt likely to win Black or Latino votes.  

    I guess I just think we are in a Trump momentum swing right now - maybe not in the reality of what will win a Presidential election - but in the reality of public opinion.

    People still get all excited about national polls because thats what news talks about.  But those dont matter.  And this event probably wont matter either - but you dont want a spark to ignite.

    I will go check out the GD thread.  

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 



    The part about the math and the demographics and the electoral college is where my money is.  Totally agree.  Trumps visit to Mexico isnt likely to win Black or Latino votes.  

    I guess I just think we are in a Trump momentum swing right now - maybe not in the reality of what will win a Presidential election - but in the reality of public opinion.

    People still get all excited about national polls because thats what news talks about.  But those dont matter.  And this event probably wont matter either - but you dont want a spark to ignite.

    I will go check out the GD thread.  

     
    ClubDirt
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 5:41 PM ET #545

    i agree we are in a trump momentum swing, but i'm guessing it's just regression.  but since trump has done so much damage to a general election campaign, i think the mean we are regressing to is still a pretty bad position for him. 

    i also don't pay attention to the national polls, but i do watch the polls in important states, which is why i made a couple of bets already.  if those show some serious movement for trump, then i would change my opinion. 

    it seems like i should get on this -300 line though. 
    Reply
    i agree we are in a trump momentum swing, but i'm guessing it's just regression.  but since trump has done so much damage to a general election campaign, i think the mean we are regressing to is still a pretty bad position for him. 

    i also don't pay attention to the national polls, but i do watch the polls in important states, which is why i made a couple of bets already.  if those show some serious movement for trump, then i would change my opinion. 

    it seems like i should get on this -300 line though. 
     
    Skipster
    Skipster
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    Posts: 6424
    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 8:20 PM ET #546

    keep in mind, too, that he has no organization at all. he has one campaign office in florida. one in pennsylvania. no get out the vote machine. he's losing person in florida by huge margin. will get none of the african american vote, a small portion of hispanics. he's losing the catholic vote and the women vote.

    it's still a contest for electoral votes. nothing has changed. it's like a football game, the momentum comes and goes but she's never lost the lead.

    also, it's still early in the week. plenty of time for him to waste any goodwill he might have earned. that's his M.O.

    Here's my question, why is he wasting money renting halls in states like Texas and Mississippi? He'll win there no matter what? Why waste time in Washington where he has no shot?
    Reply
    keep in mind, too, that he has no organization at all. he has one campaign office in florida. one in pennsylvania. no get out the vote machine. he's losing person in florida by huge margin. will get none of the african american vote, a small portion of hispanics. he's losing the catholic vote and the women vote.

    it's still a contest for electoral votes. nothing has changed. it's like a football game, the momentum comes and goes but she's never lost the lead.

    also, it's still early in the week. plenty of time for him to waste any goodwill he might have earned. that's his M.O.

    Here's my question, why is he wasting money renting halls in states like Texas and Mississippi? He'll win there no matter what? Why waste time in Washington where he has no shot?
     
    Hawky
    Hawky
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    Joined: Apr, 2014
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2016 - 10:41 PM ET #547

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:


    it seems like i should get on this -300 line though. 

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:


    it seems like i should get on this -300 line though. 

     
    ThrowDemDarts
    ThrowDemDarts
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    Joined: Feb, 2016
    Posts: 6722
    Posted: Sep. 1, 2016 - 1:15 AM ET #548

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    keep in mind, too, that he has no organization at all. he has one campaign office in florida. one in pennsylvania. no get out the vote machine. he's losing person in florida by huge margin. will get none of the african american vote, a small portion of hispanics. he's losing the catholic vote and the women vote.

    it's still a contest for electoral votes. nothing has changed. it's like a football game, the momentum comes and goes but she's never lost the lead.

    also, it's still early in the week. plenty of time for him to waste any goodwill he might have earned. that's his M.O.

    Here's my question, why is he wasting money renting halls in states like Texas and Mississippi? He'll win there no matter what? Why waste time in Washington where he has no shot?

    I honestly just believe the only thing he cares about is selling out rallies and he loves going to different venues and hearing people chanting his name. There's no logical reason for what he's doing. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    keep in mind, too, that he has no organization at all. he has one campaign office in florida. one in pennsylvania. no get out the vote machine. he's losing person in florida by huge margin. will get none of the african american vote, a small portion of hispanics. he's losing the catholic vote and the women vote.

    it's still a contest for electoral votes. nothing has changed. it's like a football game, the momentum comes and goes but she's never lost the lead.

    also, it's still early in the week. plenty of time for him to waste any goodwill he might have earned. that's his M.O.

    Here's my question, why is he wasting money renting halls in states like Texas and Mississippi? He'll win there no matter what? Why waste time in Washington where he has no shot?

    I honestly just believe the only thing he cares about is selling out rallies and he loves going to different venues and hearing people chanting his name. There's no logical reason for what he's doing. 
     
    Inyourlife16
    Inyourlife16
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2016 - 1:41 AM ET #549

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    I gotta be honest....

    I have been watching this Trump / Mexico visit today and I must say as a HRC bettor this kind of thing makes me very nervous.

    I have no idea how he pulled this off - but I think he looks very good. 

    First off - he was invited and very quickly went to Mexico.  The fact that he is nimble - and does something like this - can be played easily as a renegade move that will appeal to the anti "business as usual" voters who know HRC would hem and haw for a month and then go and have some ceremonial visit.

    Then...  He has the President of Mexico on the same stage with him not killing him!  Really?  I must say - I am impressed he pulled this off.  Dont forget he has been insulting Mexico and Mexicans for a year now.  I get that Pena is wildly unpopular - but this plays right in to the Trump narrative of I GET DEALS DONE.

    You never know how something is going to resonate - that is crystal ball stuff - but I must say.....

    I will be watching this system closely......


    Amazing right? I was feeling the same. Forget about the probability that you math on this election is correct. Suspend that reality for a moment.

    Going to Mexico was smart politics on his part. The general hope among HRC backers was that it blows up. But there was no blow up. It seemed for a moment that there may be some confusion over who pays for the wall. Besides that though it was savvy politics and HRC backers began to realize that she wasn't a sure thing.

    And then out of nowhere.........a speech that we all thought would kill Ann Coulter and moderate his amnesty position turned into a ten point Primary speech explaining the perils of all immigration and how it must defeated.

    HRC backers smiled, turned off the light and slept very well.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    I gotta be honest....

    I have been watching this Trump / Mexico visit today and I must say as a HRC bettor this kind of thing makes me very nervous.

    I have no idea how he pulled this off - but I think he looks very good. 

    First off - he was invited and very quickly went to Mexico.  The fact that he is nimble - and does something like this - can be played easily as a renegade move that will appeal to the anti "business as usual" voters who know HRC would hem and haw for a month and then go and have some ceremonial visit.

    Then...  He has the President of Mexico on the same stage with him not killing him!  Really?  I must say - I am impressed he pulled this off.  Dont forget he has been insulting Mexico and Mexicans for a year now.  I get that Pena is wildly unpopular - but this plays right in to the Trump narrative of I GET DEALS DONE.

    You never know how something is going to resonate - that is crystal ball stuff - but I must say.....

    I will be watching this system closely......


    Amazing right? I was feeling the same. Forget about the probability that you math on this election is correct. Suspend that reality for a moment.

    Going to Mexico was smart politics on his part. The general hope among HRC backers was that it blows up. But there was no blow up. It seemed for a moment that there may be some confusion over who pays for the wall. Besides that though it was savvy politics and HRC backers began to realize that she wasn't a sure thing.

    And then out of nowhere.........a speech that we all thought would kill Ann Coulter and moderate his amnesty position turned into a ten point Primary speech explaining the perils of all immigration and how it must defeated.

    HRC backers smiled, turned off the light and slept very well.
     
     
    ThrowDemDarts
    ThrowDemDarts
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2016
    Posts: 6722
    Posted: Sep. 1, 2016 - 2:06 AM ET #550

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 

    Minorities are a big issue simply because they're so lopsided against Trump, but the bigger issue is women. They vote more than men these days, and women do not like Trump. He has to make up ground somewhere else and I just can't see it. He'll lose the women vote which is gonna be 52-54% of the voters. He'll lose the minority male vote by a lot which is about 16% of voters. And the worst thing going for him, is he might lose the white male educated voters for the first time in 60 years for Republicans. If he loses that, which is about another 16% of voters... I just don't see any demographic path for him to win. He is absolutely monopolizing the uneducated white male vote though. He's going to need a miracle. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i very well could be wrong, i'm not sure i buy the idea that they are equally disliked.  i think that's part of the media angle to keep people interested and keep people watching until november.  trying to view it objectively, which is always difficult but essential as a gambler, the two aren't that equal in dislikeability (if that's a word) and one comes from the garbage we see the guy say or do and the other comes from some evidence based allegations and other pure speculation.  however, perception is reality.

    also, i can't get over trump's historically bad numbers with minorities.  even if he became normal at some point and white people who aren't retarded bought the act, he's fucked with minorities and you just can't win with those numbers.

    also, we already have one vanzack rule scenario for this season.  i posted it in the general discussion forum. 

    Minorities are a big issue simply because they're so lopsided against Trump, but the bigger issue is women. They vote more than men these days, and women do not like Trump. He has to make up ground somewhere else and I just can't see it. He'll lose the women vote which is gonna be 52-54% of the voters. He'll lose the minority male vote by a lot which is about 16% of voters. And the worst thing going for him, is he might lose the white male educated voters for the first time in 60 years for Republicans. If he loses that, which is about another 16% of voters... I just don't see any demographic path for him to win. He is absolutely monopolizing the uneducated white male vote though. He's going to need a miracle. 
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