Posted:
#76
@DoubleUp4Life
That is very interesting and similar to what I have heard from legal bookmakers taking action.
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Just Bet on Presidential Election
Posted:
#81
I compare this election to an team that overlooked it opposition the first time around as in 2016. All the pro Trumpers and Trumpettes came out of the woodwork to vote for Trump. He wont be overlooked this year as every person who took it for granted Hillary would win or didnt want to vote for a woman president will come out and vote this time around. Already 70pct of 2016 votes have been casted and you cant tell me thats people for Trump. People want this arrogant bastard out of office. Everything is always about him! BTW, there are a lot of people who voted for him in 2016 that are not voting for him this year.
“The average erect gorilla penis is 3cm (1.25 inches) long”
Posted:
#84
@buffer
Yeah - but that is a lot of conjecture. Nice narrative, but still conjecture.
I think the key is the state maps. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are up in the 90+% range.
If Biden gets all 3, he very likely only needs to win 1 of FL, PA, NC, GA, AZ, OH, TX.
To me, that is well worth -200. And the popular bet is a foregone conclusion. It is up to -950 now, but that is as close to a lock as you can get.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#86
Trump is Putin's DOG. PERIOD. Stupid people who support this orange face guy are just beyond stupid. This idiot Trump is great for stupid talk and there are so many idiot out there. How the hell you support the guy who does care about you. Stupid people coms to his rally and later get sick and die. How stupid are those Trump supporters? TRUMP SUPPORTERS= YOU ARE ALL STUPID.
Posted:
#87
@kcblitzkrieg
Total transparency here....
I bet a big position about 45 days ago on Biden at an average of -108. I then sold some of it at a slight loss about 30 days ago, but sold some of it at a gain about 10 days ago. I bet more at -200 last night.
I am averaged in at about -145 for a big position.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Look - this isnt a politics forum. So lets talk strictly numbers.... By all polls and statistical analysis, Biden has about a 90% chance of winning but yet the line is -200 (67%). That is what needs to be analyzed if you are going to bet. The argument for betting Trump: The polls - for some reason - do not accurately measure this guy and that he is a total anomaly for what has been established in polling for generations. This is possible. But I will point to several statistical analysis that show that even if he gets the same bounce in relation to the polls that he got in 2016 he still loses. It has to be bigger than 2016. The argument for betting Biden: There is no correlation between Trump the candidate and what happened in 2016. In any situation, a 15% (what Trump was before the election) comes in 1 out of 7 times - and 2016 was that 1 time. This time - you can get a -900 favorite for -200 and there is value there. Why is the line so much lower than the polls? I would say it is because of results bias from 2016, and a closer tie to betting and fandom than in any sport by an exponential factor. If you like Trump, you will bet Trump. If you like Biden, you will bet Biden. There is nothing close to this in sports. There is also such a limited sample size (1 event every 4 years) that a recency effect of 2016 is still there - and is making Biden cheaper than the polls suggest. Electoral college: Anyone will admit that Biden has more of a road to 270 than Trump. But Trump backers will say if one state goes his way, all will - which is what happened in 2016. My money is on Biden at -200. I can't ignore the numbers. I can't ignore the immense voting turnout. And I can't ignore the electoral college map. Biden -200 for a lot. And I mean a lot.
Look - this isnt a politics forum. So lets talk strictly numbers.... By all polls and statistical analysis, Biden has about a 90% chance of winning but yet the line is -200 (67%). That is what needs to be analyzed if you are going to bet. The argument for betting Trump: The polls - for some reason - do not accurately measure this guy and that he is a total anomaly for what has been established in polling for generations. This is possible. But I will point to several statistical analysis that show that even if he gets the same bounce in relation to the polls that he got in 2016 he still loses. It has to be bigger than 2016. The argument for betting Biden: There is no correlation between Trump the candidate and what happened in 2016. In any situation, a 15% (what Trump was before the election) comes in 1 out of 7 times - and 2016 was that 1 time. This time - you can get a -900 favorite for -200 and there is value there. Why is the line so much lower than the polls? I would say it is because of results bias from 2016, and a closer tie to betting and fandom than in any sport by an exponential factor. If you like Trump, you will bet Trump. If you like Biden, you will bet Biden. There is nothing close to this in sports. There is also such a limited sample size (1 event every 4 years) that a recency effect of 2016 is still there - and is making Biden cheaper than the polls suggest. Electoral college: Anyone will admit that Biden has more of a road to 270 than Trump. But Trump backers will say if one state goes his way, all will - which is what happened in 2016. My money is on Biden at -200. I can't ignore the numbers. I can't ignore the immense voting turnout. And I can't ignore the electoral college map. Biden -200 for a lot. And I mean a lot.
Nice analysis. The voter turnout is a big tell, and the fandom observation is correct. My only question or worry is, what if Trump somehow muddles the result and there is no official result for weeks? Do the books keep your money until then? And what if he is able to get the courts involved and they decide the winner? Do you then lose your money?
Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by Dynasty4:
Trump is Putin's DOG. PERIOD. Stupid people who support this orange face guy are just beyond stupid. This idiot Trump is great for stupid talk and there are so many idiot out there. How the hell you support the guy who does care about you. Stupid people coms to his rally and later get sick and die. How stupid are those Trump supporters? TRUMP SUPPORTERS= YOU ARE ALL STUPID.
Trump is Putin's DOG. PERIOD. Stupid people who support this orange face guy are just beyond stupid. This idiot Trump is great for stupid talk and there are so many idiot out there. How the hell you support the guy who does care about you. Stupid people coms to his rally and later get sick and die. How stupid are those Trump supporters? TRUMP SUPPORTERS= YOU ARE ALL STUPID.
People like you are the reason why I vote for Trump. You think anyone who doesn't share your view is stupid. People like you never look in the mirror to see what you really are. An ignorant fool who thinks his view is the only view and anyone who sees it different are stupid.
Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by ______P______:
When will America actually be great again? This MAGA statement doesn't hold up. 4 years not great yet, what gives?
When will America actually be great again? This MAGA statement doesn't hold up. 4 years not great yet, what gives?
Not easy to do when you have the left fighting you all the way. The left has tried to boot him 5 times, and still haven't gotten the job done. What gives?
6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS! Yes, I'm a sinner!!
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by SFGiants93:
Quote Originally Posted by Dynasty4: Trump is Putin's DOG. PERIOD. Stupid people who support this orange face guy are just beyond stupid. This idiot Trump is great for stupid talk and there are so many idiot out there. How the hell you support the guy who does care about you. Stupid people coms to his rally and later get sick and die. How stupid are those Trump supporters? TRUMP SUPPORTERS= YOU ARE ALL STUPID. People like you are the reason why I vote for Trump. You think anyone who doesn't share your view is stupid. People like you never look in the mirror to see what you really are. An ignorant fool who thinks his view is the only view and anyone who sees it different are stupid.
Quote Originally Posted by Dynasty4: Trump is Putin's DOG. PERIOD. Stupid people who support this orange face guy are just beyond stupid. This idiot Trump is great for stupid talk and there are so many idiot out there. How the hell you support the guy who does care about you. Stupid people coms to his rally and later get sick and die. How stupid are those Trump supporters? TRUMP SUPPORTERS= YOU ARE ALL STUPID. People like you are the reason why I vote for Trump. You think anyone who doesn't share your view is stupid. People like you never look in the mirror to see what you really are. An ignorant fool who thinks his view is the only view and anyone who sees it different are stupid.
6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS! Yes, I'm a sinner!!
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