Huge swing in the odds BUT I still do not see How Trump can win viewing the Electoral mapwindow.post_1473691769026_5 = function(win,msg){
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Huge swing in the odds BUT I still do not see How Trump can win viewing the Electoral mapwindow.post_1473691769026_5 = function(win,msg){
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the odds have actually been pretty rational at 5dimes. they have pretty much mirrored 538's estimate. 538 has had hillary's chances of winning at around 70% and 5dimes has had hillary at about -210 to -220 for a while now.
so, if you think 538 is the best estimator (which i do), the odds are right where they should be.
the odds have actually been pretty rational at 5dimes. they have pretty much mirrored 538's estimate. 538 has had hillary's chances of winning at around 70% and 5dimes has had hillary at about -210 to -220 for a while now.
so, if you think 538 is the best estimator (which i do), the odds are right where they should be.
I have always thought Pinnacle very sharp so when I saw them go under -200 it caught my eye. They have been bouncing around -195-210 or so the last few days . It amazes me how every little thing on the news moves the odds for the day or even a few hours especially when most book limit the wager to $300 anyway
I have always thought Pinnacle very sharp so when I saw them go under -200 it caught my eye. They have been bouncing around -195-210 or so the last few days . It amazes me how every little thing on the news moves the odds for the day or even a few hours especially when most book limit the wager to $300 anyway
Would love to hear the opinions of a poster like vanzack. He said that you wouldn't get better odds on Clinton than after the Republican Party Convention.
Yet here we are in mid September with much better odds.
Would love to hear the opinions of a poster like vanzack. He said that you wouldn't get better odds on Clinton than after the Republican Party Convention.
Yet here we are in mid September with much better odds.
Can't fathom wagering on this race right now...that said gun to my head, wait a little longer as i think the clinton line goes down a little more in the next few days. then i'd maybe pounce on hillary
Has there ever been more potential for bombshells and big swings in a general in recent memory?
Can't fathom wagering on this race right now...that said gun to my head, wait a little longer as i think the clinton line goes down a little more in the next few days. then i'd maybe pounce on hillary
Has there ever been more potential for bombshells and big swings in a general in recent memory?
La Times has Trump plus 5! I don't think Hillary can draw more than 20 people to an event unless the Dems pay people to show up and hold up Hope and Change signs.
La Times has Trump plus 5! I don't think Hillary can draw more than 20 people to an event unless the Dems pay people to show up and hold up Hope and Change signs.
Can't fathom wagering on this race right now...that said gun to my head, wait a little longer as i think the clinton line goes down a little more in the next few days. then i'd maybe pounce on hillary
Has there ever been more potential for bombshells and big swings in a general in recent memory?
Yeah I know what you mean. Perception, smear campaign, emotion is like I've never seen it. Obama was such a solid candidate in the betting lines. And the fact that we have even more time now for things to change
Quote Originally Posted by TILTOLOGIC:
Can't fathom wagering on this race right now...that said gun to my head, wait a little longer as i think the clinton line goes down a little more in the next few days. then i'd maybe pounce on hillary
Has there ever been more potential for bombshells and big swings in a general in recent memory?
Yeah I know what you mean. Perception, smear campaign, emotion is like I've never seen it. Obama was such a solid candidate in the betting lines. And the fact that we have even more time now for things to change
I follow the lines on a daily basis and saw Hillary at -410 at her peak.
This is the lowest Hillary has been for months now. I think it was around the time the news made it seem like Hillary had a legitimate chance of getting indicted, and Trump was fresh off something good.
Anyways, Trump is polling consistently well in swing states. He is either tied or winning in Ohio and Florida the key states. NC and GA will go red in due time.
The issue is that he needs either PA or VA, or the election is over. Michigan will never go red. PA he's surprisingly competitive, but a republican hasn't won there in like 25 years. VA is traditionally republican, but northern VA has turned really liberal, and the hispanic and muslim population has increased during the last few cycles.
So basically, I think Trump needs to turn VA in order to win. He's been behind as much as 10 pts there, and it will be difficult. PA has too many college educated liberals to turn.
So not impossible, he's got a lot of work to do even if he can win OH and FL.
I follow the lines on a daily basis and saw Hillary at -410 at her peak.
This is the lowest Hillary has been for months now. I think it was around the time the news made it seem like Hillary had a legitimate chance of getting indicted, and Trump was fresh off something good.
Anyways, Trump is polling consistently well in swing states. He is either tied or winning in Ohio and Florida the key states. NC and GA will go red in due time.
The issue is that he needs either PA or VA, or the election is over. Michigan will never go red. PA he's surprisingly competitive, but a republican hasn't won there in like 25 years. VA is traditionally republican, but northern VA has turned really liberal, and the hispanic and muslim population has increased during the last few cycles.
So basically, I think Trump needs to turn VA in order to win. He's been behind as much as 10 pts there, and it will be difficult. PA has too many college educated liberals to turn.
So not impossible, he's got a lot of work to do even if he can win OH and FL.
I follow the lines on a daily basis and saw Hillary at -410 at her peak.
This is the lowest Hillary has been for months now. I think it was around the time the news made it seem like Hillary had a legitimate chance of getting indicted, and Trump was fresh off something good.
Anyways, Trump is polling consistently well in swing states. He is either tied or winning in Ohio and Florida the key states. NC and GA will go red in due time.
The issue is that he needs either PA or VA, or the election is over. Michigan will never go red. PA he's surprisingly competitive, but a republican hasn't won there in like 25 years. VA is traditionally republican, but northern VA has turned really liberal, and the hispanic and muslim population has increased during the last few cycles.
So basically, I think Trump needs to turn VA in order to win. He's been behind as much as 10 pts there, and it will be difficult. PA has too many college educated liberals to turn.
So not impossible, he's got a lot of work to do even if he can win OH and FL.
This
Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:
I follow the lines on a daily basis and saw Hillary at -410 at her peak.
This is the lowest Hillary has been for months now. I think it was around the time the news made it seem like Hillary had a legitimate chance of getting indicted, and Trump was fresh off something good.
Anyways, Trump is polling consistently well in swing states. He is either tied or winning in Ohio and Florida the key states. NC and GA will go red in due time.
The issue is that he needs either PA or VA, or the election is over. Michigan will never go red. PA he's surprisingly competitive, but a republican hasn't won there in like 25 years. VA is traditionally republican, but northern VA has turned really liberal, and the hispanic and muslim population has increased during the last few cycles.
So basically, I think Trump needs to turn VA in order to win. He's been behind as much as 10 pts there, and it will be difficult. PA has too many college educated liberals to turn.
So not impossible, he's got a lot of work to do even if he can win OH and FL.
i think the biggest concern for the dems is people who are polled not admitting to voting for Trump when they will, trump may be doing a lot better than people think
i think the biggest concern for the dems is people who are polled not admitting to voting for Trump when they will, trump may be doing a lot better than people think
Don't be fooled by odds often fluctuaing over time because long term trend still favors Clinton. She has always been a strong favourite in gambling markets which are more reliable than public polls. If Trump is to win, he should already be ahead by now in the late stage.
Don't be fooled by odds often fluctuaing over time because long term trend still favors Clinton. She has always been a strong favourite in gambling markets which are more reliable than public polls. If Trump is to win, he should already be ahead by now in the late stage.
Don't be fooled by odds often fluctuaing over time because long term trend still favors Clinton. She has always been a strong favourite in gambling markets which are more reliable than public polls. If Trump is to win, he should already be ahead by now in the late stage.
The long term trend favoured the UK remaining in the EU. It was always the strong favourite in the gambling markets. But the UK voted Brexit.
I know this election isn't quite the same as the Brexit vote, but it's something to consider.
Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
Don't be fooled by odds often fluctuaing over time because long term trend still favors Clinton. She has always been a strong favourite in gambling markets which are more reliable than public polls. If Trump is to win, he should already be ahead by now in the late stage.
The long term trend favoured the UK remaining in the EU. It was always the strong favourite in the gambling markets. But the UK voted Brexit.
I know this election isn't quite the same as the Brexit vote, but it's something to consider.
Well odds makers in Britain got to love the English about as neutral as it gets they seem to hate Clinton and Trump equally. Put Hillary at 60 percent chance and trump at 40 percent. And the odds after the conventions have been narrowing. Back to reality. Turn out numbers are not going to be as high as 2008 or 2012. This spells defeat for clinton. Who actually votes. Although a high turnout of Latino is expected African American numbers are going to be half. Hillary collapses on the stage and this ball game is over. Obviously Americans are not looking for.miss faints alot excuse me ms faints alot to be commander in chief.
Well odds makers in Britain got to love the English about as neutral as it gets they seem to hate Clinton and Trump equally. Put Hillary at 60 percent chance and trump at 40 percent. And the odds after the conventions have been narrowing. Back to reality. Turn out numbers are not going to be as high as 2008 or 2012. This spells defeat for clinton. Who actually votes. Although a high turnout of Latino is expected African American numbers are going to be half. Hillary collapses on the stage and this ball game is over. Obviously Americans are not looking for.miss faints alot excuse me ms faints alot to be commander in chief.
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