Considering the polls margin of error?

WHAT ?!?!?!

What fool had adolf trump with a 91% chance of winning re-election ? 

@fubah2

 The polls that Ramble and other brainwashed Trumpers claim are "most accurate". 

A statement for the Trump supporters. 

I just heard an AOC interview from yesterday where she wants to make a list of Trump supporters that are defending Trump and his legal challenges. She wants to use this list to restrict job opportunities for Republicans based on political reasons. 

This is not the America the right wants. 

It is up to us to make our voice heard that ensure that Democratic leaders like AOC should be voted out of office. 

Thank god the Blue Wave was fake news.

The state of Ohio has accurately picked the right president since around 1962. What happened this time 

I hope that's not all you took from the documentary, Scoob. For those of you who read, I also recommend Matt Taibbi's Hate, inc.

The picked the wrong President. Maybe wrong isn't correct wording but there's nothing Scientific about the Ohio model. 

Stu.... I do not have tunnel vision.   Today is so messed up. The senator from Montana said it best... this is some "scary shit"... I am old school... I feel bad for my grandkids if this is the direction of society , not including politics. 

thank god the 91% chance of rump winning as supported by his rump lickers was fake news

Not positive but my understanding suggests we need to know *WHY* they picked who they picked.

Logically, they picked a candidate that had POSITIVE approval ratings....which makes sense.

And that candidate always won.

This time is a bit different because trump is an INCUMBENT - and those re-elections are *ALWAYS* a referendum on the incumbent.  The indicator of how he is doing as an incumbent is always his "job approval" numbers from the consensus of a vast number of polls.  

NO INCUMBENT has ever won re-election with net negative "job approval" -- and that makes total sense when we think about it.

Not only did trump have net negative job approval (consensus) through his entire presidency, he is also the only incumbent ever to FAIL to reach a consensus +50% approval at any point in his presidency.

He was facing an opponent -- as flawed as Joe Biden may be -- who the public gave NET *POSITIVE* favorability.

In 2016, trump was lucky to face an opponent whose favorability rating was almost as bad as his (sub 50%) and even then he still lost the popular vote by almost 3 million!!

He's on track to lose this time by well over 5 million

TOTAL FAILURE.

Ohio is no longer swing state... So it'll only be correct with R win

Penn and Florida = new meta-swing

Shocked that Biden didn't need Florida or penn

I don't think Penn will be a swing state for long. I think they lean to the right. Georgia will become the next swing state. Possibly North Carolina. And in another 8 years or so Texas will be in play.

TL/DR: not enough people respond to polls.. the response rate is really low... and do the people who respond really represent an unbiased prediction of their demographic cohort.

not sure the polls missed by a huge amount .... certainly missed though

I didn't believe in "shy trump voter" in 2020. and I still don't........ but I think it is a family member of that phenomenon.

"shy voter" I think was explained by respondents not stating their support of trump.

BUT, I think it is "paranoid trump supporter"... apparently his supporters are very paranoid (LOL) about polls. so they don't respond.

and THIS FITS INTO huge problem with polls.. NAMELY, that almost no one responds to them..... so you take some tiny X% of population and make inferences.

you can say "55% of educated white males support biden" OR "elderly hispanics support biden".... BUT are the people in those cohorts who respond to a poll representative of their demographic.. I'd say "no". I'd say the "elderly hispanic who responds to poll" is much better educated and speaks much better English than the average "elderly hispanic"

so the polls adjusted for 2016 errors.... but they don't have an unbiased sample even for each demographic sliver.... and I haven't even mentioned turnout. that seems very mysterious.. I am shocked DJT got so many new voters. didn't think it was possible (I mean, people who didn't vote in 2016... I know DJT made up ground with non-whites in 2020)

TL/DR