Posted:
#101
Thats reflected in the odds now too. Trump now -100 (EV) and Harris -125. Trump was +112 post debate.
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2024 US Election Betting Hub
Posted:
#108
Bet365 presidential odds
One week after Kamala handed trump a humiliating beatdown on the debate stage - watched worldwide by nearly 100 MILLION (includes TV, online and streaming) - the odds of Kamala Harris defeating the racist/fraud/rapist/convicted felon has risen at Bet365 from -110 prior to the beatdown, up to -138 (Sept 18)
Her odds of winning the popular vote have risen from -350 to -500
**NOTE: just like the stock markets, we know from past experience that these numbers will bounce up and down some over the coming weeks. They typicall do! We will have a much more clear view in the final days of October.
I expect these odds/poll-numbers to moderate downward some, but likely to still stay a near coin-flip (with Harris holding a thin edge)
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Posted:
#111
@DogbiteWilliams
According to a 2022 report, 66.1% of online gamblers were men--AI Overview, per Google search. And online gamblers are more likely to be men and white.
Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump.*
*https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-and-the-state-of-the-2024-presidential-race/
1
Posted:
#112
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
@DogbiteWilliams According to a 2022 report, 66.1% of online gamblers were men--AI Overview, per Google search. And online gamblers are more likely to be men and white. Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump.* *https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-and-the-state-of-the-2024-presidential-race/
@DogbiteWilliams According to a 2022 report, 66.1% of online gamblers were men--AI Overview, per Google search. And online gamblers are more likely to be men and white. Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump.* *https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-and-the-state-of-the-2024-presidential-race/
Most sharp Covers posters would have assumed that, but thanks Europa for posting the corroborating stats.
1
Posted:
#113
Money must have been pouring in on Trump; now he is only down 4.2% at EBO.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
I hope it's not because of his Haitian hate-mongering. It should be the results of two recent polls. Previously Electoral Vote had AZ and GA rated even; now Trump leads by 2% in both. However Trump's lead is a mere 3% in FL; if Harris flips that Trump is probably hopeless.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-7
1
Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
Heritage lines as of 2024-09-28: Harris -125 Trump +105 The line has been moving on the favorite. Bettors have been taking Harris lately.
Heritage lines as of 2024-09-28: Harris -125 Trump +105 The line has been moving on the favorite. Bettors have been taking Harris lately.
Yes. It was -125 HARRIS at Bet365 couple days ago, dipped to -110, and today back up to -125.
This might well change down to even odds Tuesday evening or Wednesday.
1
Posted:
#118
Atlas is not a highly ranked poll, but shows chilling results vastly different than most i've seen
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1840183887458177530
Poly market has been showing Pennsylvania just split in half. Except when it is a tie, at 50-50, they give 1% to the candidate who has more dollars, so it says 51% to 50% (which is illogical)
https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner/will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-presidential-election?tid=1727637235100
Looks like Kamala is reaching voters, gaining momentum in battleground states--let's hope--cannot afford a second time round with the Manhattan Swindler.
2
Posted:
#119
@MizuNoYoNiNaru
Both Electoral Vote and 538 have Harris up by 1% which is obviously too close to call, especially considering that there is still more than one month until Election Day. 538's graph shows that Harris is making NO progress in PA despite all the horrifying and disgusting things Trump has said or tweeted lately.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
0
Posted:
#121
Trafalgar..."specializes in finding the hidden republican voters not reached by most polls..." has Trump leading in Mich, Wisc, Pa, Georgia, Ariz and Nevada.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org
I can't believe American voters will fall for this 'Dirty Harry' impersonation....staying positive....
No update on polymarkets--50% to 49% now for the last several days.
1
Posted:
#122
@MizuNoYoNiNaru
Yikes! On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster.
"If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. …
Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data?
Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024."
This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit. There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/
2
Posted:
#123
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
@MizuNoYoNiNaru Yikes! On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster. "If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. … Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024." This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit. There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months. https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/
@MizuNoYoNiNaru Yikes! On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster. "If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. … Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024." This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit. There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months. https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/
Per Wikipedia, Robert Cahaly was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.
Per 538, Trafalgar Group is ranked #279. They don't get more unreliable.
1
Posted:
#125
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: @MizuNoYoNiNaru Yikes! On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster. "If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. … Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024." This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit. There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months. https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/ Per Wikipedia, Robert Cahaly was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Per 538, Trafalgar Group is ranked #279. They don't get more unreliable.
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: @MizuNoYoNiNaru Yikes! On the surface that seems scary, but Trafalgar is definitely a Republican-skewed pollster. "If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.” That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead. … Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data? Traf is just a biased outfit that asks pointed questions to get responses they want to hear. Got a modicum of attention for correctly predicting Trump in 2016 but that in an of itself should give you warning. Of course, picked Trump incorrectly in 2020 and probably 2024." This post is from jester32 at the FiveThirtyEight Reddit. There may be some validity to the comment because it has garnered 60 upvotes in the last two months. https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1eod1z6/whats_the_deal_with_pollsters_like/ Per Wikipedia, Robert Cahaly was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Per 538, Trafalgar Group is ranked #279. They don't get more unreliable.
Almost as bad is the solid right leaning Rasmussen Reports
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