2024 Presidential Election Prediction

As of right now it's Biden in '24 but with all the anti-vaccers and hatred from the right they might try something outlandish.  I like Joe Biden +400 to win the 2024 presidential election.

@FredLeonard

wishful thinking ?

he may not even run . ive always believed he would choose to b a one term president only and just support another for 2024 . it wont matter much imo bcuz the trump-fascist party will already own at least one of the senate or house  and no dem legislation will ever pass even when its good for the country  like cutting spending or investing in our infrastructure as the american public overwhelmingly agrees with

The way I see it is Republicans can’t start thinking about ways to deny Trump the nomination in 2024 until they take baby steps toward that goal.

That means at a minimum, ceasing to denounce and punish Republicans who have spoken out against him.

Once that painful step has been accomplished, what’s left of party leadership can promote conservative (or even moderate to conservative (shudder) candidates who support presumed party ideals and are not in thrall to Trump. Said party leaders could even speak out against Trump and his tired refrain of election fraud.

But that will take a degree of long-term vision (years, not months). It’s much easier to knuckle under while hoping Democrats self-destruct.

The sad thing is that there’s enough of that self-destructiveness to create a risk of possible significant G.O.P. gains in 2022. In that case, Republicans will think that Trump-worship is still a viable path, with negative consequences no matter what the outcome of the next Presidential election. 

In that case I believe that not only will the party nominate him in 2024 but that he will win....If only the nation could Re-boot the last 25 years of politics! 

@joe pockets

There is decent reasoning behind your comments on this  

There is no doubt however, in my mind, that republicans *will* win back both the House and Senate next year.   Not on merit mind you; not on their own platform; hell no! Because they DON'T EVEN HAVE ONE!! LOL 

But rather, politicking. 

By blocking good legislation for America -- which Americans express by large majority they are in favor because it is GOOD for America -- the trump worshippers in congress will use every campaign dollar, starting next year, to do nothing butexcept NEGATIVE ads denouncing the Democrats and painting the Dems as having failed, then claiming repeatedly to their gullible FOX NEWS listeners that it is all entirely the Dems fault.  Which may include a major recession and downgrade of our AAA credit rating as a result of the republicans causing a default.  Their negative ads of course will not mention their part in the fiasco to come.  No, of course not.  But that messaging is EXACTLY what the rednecks, racists, morons, and other trump-worshippers want to hear and it will drive them to the polls in their heavily gerry-mandered districts with new restrictive voting laws that will suppress minority voting for Democrats.

Anyway, despite all that being morally wrong and BAD for America, the republicans DO NOT GIVE A DAMN.  They only want to be back in power -- especially Mitch McConnell.  

And as a result they *will* get it.   Congress anyway.  Both chambers.   And as I have stated repeatedly in this forum, I will be betting effing HUGE amounts $$$$$$$ backing this result that republicans win. 

You see governance and helping Americans, the past 5 years at least, is NOT their priority or platform. 

Just winning power baby.  That's all.

And they will in 2022.  Mark my words.   It happens in most midterms after a recent presidential election and 2022 will be no exception, especially given the razor thin margins the Dems have to begin with.   Might as well make some BIG MONEY off this inevitability.  I called the 2020 Biden win correctly and profited $54,000  and next year I expect the same.

Not having a trifecta in govt is the problem.   And for the following 2 years after the trump-toiletbowl-worshippers retake the house and senate the filibuster will still be in play and the Dems will use it to block everything the trump-cult puts forward as legislation,  or the WH will veto.  Thus once again Congress, our Federal Government will be blamed for everything - despite the fact that is a false narrative too.  One party is much more responsible for not having a platform and for NOT trying to help the American people than the othe. 

It is a false equivalency to declare both parties are guilty therefore it is all equally bad/corrupt on BOTH sides.

If the Right wins the House in 2022. President Trump will have 2 titles. 

1. Legitimate President of the United States.

2. More importantly. President Trump will be Speaker of the House!

This is likely.     I am with you in regards betting on republicans to win at least 5 more seats in the house and probably 2 or 3 in the senate. 

This won't change the balance of power one iota due to the filibuster rule that the party in minority can wield to block everything.  

Its bad for the  country but might as well make some cash off it. 

Congress will be deadlocked again and our lives won't change one whit no matter who wins in 2022 as long as a 60 vote majority is required in the senate. 

For that matter, in 2024 either.

good analysis 

2022 we will see...   as of now, it does not look good for the lefties...   

im already starting another couple sportsbooks that offer politics now so i can rollover my br 100 times or so i wont b unnecessary limited when the time comes to bet on repos retaking the house and seante too

the repos wont get a 60 seat super majority in senate though so the entire congress will be blockaded from passing anything meaningful to help americans for the succeeding to years .

it doesn't look good for america at all

@fubah2 

I’ve given up any notion that Romney and Cheney represent the core of a reasonable Republican Party. They are the last dying gasp of that party. Right now we have the Democrats and the GQP “ Marjorie Taylor Greene and her Ilk  “ only one of which has any interest in governing. Until DJT is dead or in prison, it’s his party and his alone. The specter of another Donald term is real and should scare the bejeezus out of us...

Just more shiny examples inside this thread which define liberalism as a ‘mental disorder!’

It's funny that you call the Trump a fascist, your party has you so confused you can't even see what they are doing to you.

Fascism is a system of government led by a dictator who typically rules by forcefully (dems shutting down small businesses, mandating a new vaccine with literally no long term studies done or publishing side effects and how many people suffer from the vax. Firing people for refusing etc...) and often violently suppressing opposition and criticism (umm big tech censoring everyone who views the opposite), controlling all industry and commerce (shutting down businesses, back log of ships waiting to get unloaded, continual inflation and more), and promoting nationalism and often racism ("If you don't vote for me, you ain't black")

Sound familiar? Ya'll need to look in the mirror when calling some a fascist.

@joe pockets  

Yeah, you're right.

In the good ole days I voted for Reagan 2x, Bush Sr once, and Bush Jr the first go before he embroiled us into 2 devastating wars,

Also voted for Carter, Clinton, and Obama 2x.

I abstained in 2016, and last year I didn't vote FOR either candidate, but like a HUGE percentage of Americans I voted *AGAINST* trump.

Joe, I hold several beliefs and principles one would consider "conservative"  but trumpism is a road to tyrannical racism to make the rich richer and throw tablescraps at the other 98% who aren't so lucky.

I would NEVER support a draft dodger who called our fallen Marines "losers" and "suckers"  (I served in the National Guard in my former statte) and who tried to overthrow democracy -- as I am outlining here in a couple threads.  trump is a total disgrace (and so are his accomplices and all those who voted for him TWICE)  to the overwhelming majority of Americans with an IQ over 100.

Polling shows CLEARLY that college educated Americans (particularly women) voted significantly more for Biden, whereas NON-college Americans (ie, lesser educated - many of whom were HS dropouts) voted significantly more for trump.

And they hate the changing demographics and losing their "white priviledge" -- which is something trump and his cult followers tapped into with the help of the Russians on social media to fan the flames of hatred.

Agreed.   2024 is a crapshoot right now.   It was never a consensus that Biden would run for a second term, and I didn't believe he would and still don't -- regardless what happens over the next 3 years.   I believe Gavin Newsom will make a run and win the nomination.   The largest state in the union - running the world's 6th largest economy - supports Newsom BIGLY as was demonstrated for a 2nd time recently, and I agree with most of his policy decisions.

He was the Mayor of San Francisco for 7 years, then Lt.Gov of California for 8 years before winning a huge majority for Governor 2 years ago.  In his recall election he actually won by *MORE* than when running for governor the first time!!  VERY, VERY popular, and he's not like trump at all -- which makes him a very attractive alternative for Dems and us Independents.

However, that said, regardless who wins the presidency in 2024, our country will be totally *PHUCKED* for the next 4 years UNLESS his/her party also has the House and the Senate by SIGNIFICANT MARGINS.

REPEAT:  unless one party owns both chambers by SIGNIFICANT MARGINS in each AND THE WH -- America is phucked again!

So that means these next 3 years plus the succeeding 4 years. 

The only path forward is if one party has the trifecta BY SIGNIFICANT MARGINS IN EACH.

We don't have it now, and 2022 is virtually MEANINGLESS even if GOP take back both chambers.  

Because NOTHING will get passed to help Americans

But since 202 is meaningless anyway (unless Dems win really big - but that won't happen)  I figure I am going to profit off betting on republicans to win small majorities in both chambers.  Thus, gridlock in Congress for the next 3 years at least.  Guaranteed.

I will be betting very large sums on the republicans.  I want a new electric vehicle with all the doo-dads.

Fubah2, I suggest you cut back on your Democratic pessimism.  Per Election Betting Odds as of 2022-09-03, the Democrats have a 65.7% of maintaining control of the Senate:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Senate2022.html

The lunatic right-wing GOP primary voters have chosen a bunch of vile extremists that will boost Democratic turnout and move a bunch of independents to the left.  Overturning Roe v. Wade will also motivate women to turn out and vote against the misogynists that want to control them.

@FredLeonard

 As of right now it's Biden in '24 but with all the anti-vaccers and hatred from the right they might try something outlandish.  I like Joe Biden +400 to win the 2024 presidential election.

Funny how "anti-vaccers" aren't even relevant now as we sit only 4 months out from election day.... 

"outlandish" today is all the blind sheep only finally realizing Hologram Joe has been just that, a hologram for the past 3 years.... tough pill to swallow for most, which is why you only hear silence on the topic.  Denial so much easier for the human mind to accept over being so wrong for so long.... 

Testing the waters I see.....

The Biden campaign is testing VP Kamala Harris' odds against Trump in the election according to the NYT. The development is believed to be the first time since the debate that Biden aides have looked into Harris' chances against Trump.

Here is what the polls say:

Ipsos/ABC News: Trump: 47% Harris: 49% (+2)

Emerson College Poll: Trump: 49% (+6) Harris: 42.8%

The Hill’s Polling Average Unskewer: Trump: 45.6% (+2) Harris: 43.9%

Not so bad for Ms. Harris, better than I'd have expected....