The Kids From M.I.T. Beat Blackjack, This Kid From Cornell Is Going To Beat Sports Betting.

First Sunday of the NFL season and I am FIRED up to get things going. Had a good go of things hitting the UNDER in Thursday Nights rematch of the NFC Final. Today there is a bit of everything on the go, so lets get to it!

First of all, week one of the NFL season, FORGET about the “public percentages”. It does not matter who is on what game. The only thing that matters is what game YOU are on. Do not put your money on unproven bad football teams this early in the season thinking it’s a sharp play. Week one is straight forward and blunt. With the number of mismatches this week we should all be able to take advantage of these lines. Do not place your bet based on what you think the odds makers are thinking when they set the line. Remember, the odds makers are trying to get even money on either side of the game not predict the winner. Also remember, public percentages do not move the lines, money does. Just because the San Francisco game has been at -3 all week with sites reporting 80% of public action backing them does not mean the game is a trap. It means there is just as much money coming in on Seattle as there is on San Francisco. Remember that anywhere you see public consensus out there you are getting the consensus of people who have picked a certain bet in a contest, not at the book. You will never see the amount of money on either side reported straight from the book. These are pickem style contests that give you an idea of how other people out there are betting. Do not let this throw you. You can judge who is betting where most of the time by the line move. After all the only thing that moves the line is money or in game factors, not betting volume. For example, round number purposes on a game like this there could be 80 people out there who combined to bet for $100 on San Francisco and 20 people out there who combined to bet for $100 on Seattle. It is a 80/20 public split, but the money is spread out evenly meaning no line move. Trap? I don’t think so. Just because a person bets a lot of money on a single game does not mean he is right. As we all know, rich people can be stupid too. Don’t let these things throw you off your game in week one of the season; put your money where YOU want it to go. Don’t let the way other people are betting sway your interest.

With that being said, here is where my money is going today.

San Francisco at -3 is an absolute gift. This team ran the table in the preseason and before you tell me preseason means nothing let me explain myself. San Francisco running the table in August doesn’t tell me they have a good team, I already knew that. It tells me that Coach Mike Singletary has the team right where he wants them. This is a team hidden further in the closet then next year’s Christmas presents. No one is talking about the 49ers, except me. When you turn on the TV in February, you’re going to see the Red and Gold playing for the Lombardi Trophy. Sticky it, copy and paste it, screen shot it, whatever you need to do, do it now because you will come back to here in six months time. Now I have that off my chest, I can tell you Pete “Just For Men Blonde Edition” Carroll is walking into a slaughter today. His first time coaching in the pros since his stint with the pre Tom Brady Pats is not going to be a winning one. This is a Seattle team that resembles a BMW “pre-owned” car. It does the job but is no where near what it used to be. The glory days are gone and now this Seahawk team is trying to make ends meet. Matt Hasselbeck is getting old and after losing their leading receiver from a year ago earlier in the Week (T.J. Housmandzadeh) he probably feels a little bit older. They lost their main Anti-Gore products in Patrick Kerney (retirement) and Lawrence Jackson (Detroit). Linebacker Leroy Hill is on the side lines after he dropped his joint and did time in Georgia. Russel Okung is also missing from the defense which now has bigger hole up the middle the size of Lindsey Lohan’s. San Francisco is bringing back nearly the same defense that ranked 6^th in the league last season and an offense that is a year old. Alex Smith had a great pre season and is slowly starting to show us he is the quarter back we sort of expected him to be when he first came into the league. He should be even better now with a full time Crabtree out wide along with the highest paid tight end in Vernon Davis. I almost forgot to mention the 1-2 punch of Gore and Westbrook coming out of the backfield posing as one of the best combo’s of running backs in the nation. Niners have beat up on division foes in openers covering in 6 of the last 7. Overall against the West they have been on a 83% tear against the number dating back to 2008 and have won on opening day in 5 of their last 7. San Fran also fits into a solid 61% angle of teams running the table in the preseason opening as a road favourite of 3 or more points that has padded backers wallets dating back 10 seasons. Expect the Niners to do what they do best, move the ball methodically down the field, own the clock and with Mike Singletary on the side lines you better believe they will have the ball wrapped up with two hands tighter then a nuns box. (4^th best turnover ratio last season.) With all this said, take the 49ers this afternoon.

 The Green Bay Packers have become road warriors of as late. If you have been on the bandwagon starting at the beginning of the 2006 season you would of turned a healthy 20-8-1 record or 71.4% winning percentage. The Eagles are a woeful 38% against the spread dating back 18 seasons opening as a 3-7 point home underdog in a non conference game. Tonight they will play their first game without one Donovan Mcnabb on the roster since the 1999 season. They have also lost one of their biggest playmakers in Brian Westbrook who is now with the 49ers. The Eagles have young receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin trying to help out new found starter Kevin Kolb who wont have much help from his backfield. Lesean McCoy will have to replace Westbrook in the backfield and will go up against the stingiest rush defense from a year ago. This major mismatch caused by the Packers defense will cause the Eagles to be a pass first offense all game long. This proves to be trouble with a developing Kevin Kolb in the pocket trying to keep up with Aaron Rodgers who is coming off one of the best pre seasons we have seen from a QB in a long time. This is going to be a long day for the young Eagles who will find themselves at the wrong end of a 2 touchdown loss this afternoon.