So....if Trump closes a deal with China?

Well said, "Gamble.. And therein lies the "crux" of the problem.   When China entered the WTO in 2001, and as I've said earlier, there was a HOPE that China would further engage in opening up its economy to foreign competition.   That didn't happen.

 ... And things only deteriorated further, culminating in 2010 with the appointment of  Current President Xi Jinping.   Since his appointment, China  has taken many steps to further consolidate power and control over its people and the economy, including the elimination of presidential terms (was 5 years), state subsidies, hacking of foreign countries, spread of disinformation in HK and Taiwan, etc.. the list goes on how bad of an "actor" China has really become, particularly in the last decade (i.e. since 2010).. 

I agree with you "Gamble... Let's give Trump a chance.

He is the ONLY ONE willing to do the right thing and confront China

Why did they think it was possible ? Because back in 2001, China was not a "hardline" Communist Country, and countries HOPED that China would further disengage from Communism.   After all, the Chinese were given a glimpse into CAPITALISM, enabling millions of their own people to escape poverty and earn a wage .   The HOPE is they would further embrace CAPITALISM.   How many other Communist Countries can you say that about ?? .... And what more proof do you need that China did indeed engage in CAPITALISM ??  

Wall, here is a simple test to "prove" that China has engaged in some form of "Capitalism" over the past decades...  Pick any Communist Country , and think long and hard about how many others have been able to lift millions of their own people out of poverty ..  Russia (and yes, they're still communist), Cuba, North Korea  ? ?   Think about it.   How many other Communist Countries have enabled millions of their own people to escape poverty and join the working class?    None !  Only China.  They are not a true "Theoretical" Communist Economy" as you make them out to be.  That is just False, and again, lacks an understanding of what's occurred in China over the previous  decades... They are an export juggernaut, and have been the world's factory floor for a very Lonnnng Time. 

It's amazing how much Trump has been able to accomplish, despite all the headwinds and distractions thrown his way..

Corporate and PersonTax cuts, taking on China, cutting regulation, stemming the flow of illegal immigration..

Bravo !

Back to the actual trade discussion.... things have been quiet for a few days now.  Word out of Beijing since the "informal Phase 1" trade deal is that their Chinese state medial haven't committed to the same amount of Ag purchases as in the agreement.. 

Too many are cheering this Phase 1 "informal agreement," and believe the worst is behind us.  Count me out ... My thinking is that the rhetoric will again heat up when the Chinese backtrack, making any tariff increase in 2020 a dicey proposition so close to our presidential election.

He deserves it and more, the guy is a tyrant bully and stomps all over the constitution with his antics. Hes lucky the GOP are chump dopes who would support him irregardless of what a piece of crap he is. He deserves to be tossed out, but thanks to the spineless GOP he will not.

Rush,

China would need 50 to 100 years to slowly evolve, it isnt like flipping a switch. China was not close to capitalism before Xi, the fact that the government knows they cannot keep in the dark ages because in doing so the potential with tech and business is greatly reduced. The government has a path and a plan, playing the WTO gained them quite a bit and I dont know how anyone would think that China would evolve even with fake promises.

If speedbumps on our roads were ants, they would be called impeachment hearings. The markets seem to understand that the Democrats are a disaster and that the Senate will overturn yesterday's decision. 

Meanwhile, the markets barely even registered a blip. I hope the Senate trial doesn't drag on for weeks on end....such a sad waste of taxpayer money.

Says who?  Why 50 to 100 years ? Where does that come from ?

No one put a timeline on this.  They just wanted China to escape the throes of Hard line Communism and become "more" of an open market.. That didn't happen.

The truth is that China had enabled millions of its own people escape poverty , (and as ill-conceived you believe it might be), member states in 2001 had "hoped"  this would accelerate under WTO agreement. . 

They had already engaged in some form of Capitalism.. All Trump is trying to do is to get them to stop cheating in the form of (1) forced technology transfers, (2) state subsidy protections of their own Chinese Companies, and (3) IP theft.

Unfortunately, rules and a signed piece of paper (i.e. Agreements) mean nothing to these people. 

We're almost 1 year removed (12/24/18) from when the market "troughed" with a 19% drop..  We've come a long way with a more accommodative fed, and the "perceived notion" that the worst of the trade fears are behind us..

I think markets have gotten stretched, but as we've discussed before , it's hard to time the market .. One metric that doesn't get talked about a lot is "GDP" vs.  "Total Stock Market Capatilization".  It has gotten stretched near the peaks of 2001 and 2008...

Companies can fudge the number of profits ratios  all day long (i.e. P/E)  with corporate stock buybacks, etc... but they can't fudge the total amount of goods and services produced in an economy (i.e. GDP)....

The set up for the start of 2020 is very interesting. January-March is typically a big stock accumulation month as investors fund IRA's-SEP's to take advantage of tax savings headed into the tax filing deadline. Remember, 99% of people wait until they (or their accountant) figure out their tax bill so they can maximize their tax breaks via IRA contributions.

A correction will certainly come at some point, but I would not expect it in the first quarter of 2020. 

The Santa Claus rally is REAL people. The markets are actually getting a little ridiculous. A new high, day after day after day after day with zero new news. It seems there is a never ending supply of cash on the sidelines.

This rally is simply breathtaking!

So....an interesting bit of news today with the Phase One deal set to be put to ink on January 15th. Meanwhile, the markets are still on the move upward in a continued breathtaking rally. As I stated before, we are headed into a part of the year where IRA's and SEP's will be funded to take advantage of tax deductions. The cash will pile up over the next 3 months, so in my mind the first quarter of 2020 is looking prosperous. At the very least, the cash will be there to support the markets if a decline occurs.  

A correction will come at some point, but the markets continue to punish all shorts and people on the sidelines as their relative wealth continues to shrink. 

I will ride this rally until the wheels fall off.....stay tuned!!!!

It’s funny looking back at all of the predictions saying a Trump Presidency would be terrible for the markets 

They try and wish it'll happen soon.  Trump deregulation and lower tax rates have been rocket fuel for the economy.   If this phase 1 trade deal really leads to changed behavior by the Chinese , it'll go further.   I think the markets are getting  a little too euphoric though 

Nothing like a missile attack on a big Iranian militant figure to get the markets agitated... futures already showing a 1% decline. 

Oil stocks gonna shoot up Friday.   

Eh....it's really nothing. The traders don't like being long going into the weekend with so much short term volatility in Iran. That's about what it takes to keep the markets from skyrocketing upward every day. 

If you are in the camp that thinks the market could use a little cooling off (I might be), this might not be the worst thing. The worst thing for these markets is for the fed to think they need to start raising rates.....such a delicate pendulum rates can be.

For now I'm just piling up dividends in cash. I haven't initiated a new position since CVS mid last year. 

You're right.. nothingburger.. so far.   I'm not making any investment decisions regardless of what happens next.  Just providing some daily commentary on market moving events..  Investing on emotion is a sure fire way to the  poor house.  It's what gets so many people in trouble 

When doing my research I come across interesting statistics that can be used to approximate the probability that markets perform to the up or downside. I used these statistics to handicap the likelihood of a complete recovery from the 2018 bear market when stocks plunged 20%. During non recessionary times, the average bounce back from a 20% bear is 182 days. This theory proved to work out splendidly last year.

That brings us to incidents-of-war selloffs. I firmly believe that this situation with Iran will dissipate into a zero effect. Going all the way back to 1941 and the attack at Pearl Harbor, incidents of war have resulted in an average 4% loss in the markets. However, on average, it took just 41 days for the markets to recover and make new highs above pre-incident levels. 

Just like in 2018, this is historical data that can be used to retain confidence in a buy and hold strategy.

The market really has been acting quite orderly considering all that is going on w Iran.   Tells you there is an incredible amount of money that just wants in on this market.  Pre market and early morning sellers are met w a flurry of buying later in afternoon.   FOMO is in full effect on this market. 

Buck....I have been piling up dividends since I bought CVS at 54 last August. I know I should probably sell now that it did exactly what I predicted in its run to 74. I'm just a greedy bastard!!! I put aside some time nearly every day to study my holdings and opportunities, but I don't feel like letting some dividends pile up is the worst move right now. I say that like I'm holding a ton of cash but today I sit at just under 2% cash. That's pretty much full steam ahead. 

Working in reverse order, OMER seems to be simply stagnating. The chart is all over the place. Hitting the low tide at the right time requires information that I don't have. I know you like to trade this one and I agree that it's a traders stock. So what do you see happening in 2020 with this one? If it gets to 20, can it stay there and move higher? Seems unlikely to me based on the past several years. 

Politics is a mess. Nancy P is like a cartoon character. WTF is she trying to do limiting Trump's war powers??? Wasn't it Obama's administration that continued to use the terrorist "deck of cards" that the Bush administration made famous? I might be wrong, but I believe that Soleimani was in the deck right? Obama's administration continued to use the "deck" after Bush made it popular in the 2000's. I believe the goal was to kill EVERYONE in the deck. Now all of a sudden killing a terrorist is something to be criticized? These Democrats are brutally delusional and hypocritical. God help us if one of those socialist minded idiots gets in power. 

Well, it appears the Chinese delegation is ready to come to the U.S. next week to formally sign "phase 1."  Borrowing a word from earlier, this all a big nothing burger IMHO that doesn't address the structural changes that China needs to implement.   Trump can use Phase 1  as campaign material as he gears up his rallies.   My guess is after he wins re-election (we hope)  he will tighten the clamps on China on the structural changes that are needed.   (i.e. phase 2 & 3)

OK scoreboard watchers! I hope some of you took my advice 6 months ago with the QQQ at 170 and GOOG at 1180. These stocks are absolutely exploding with Trump set to ink the phase one deal on Wednesday!

Today Google (Alphabet) sits at 1,436 and the QQQ sits at 220. 

If Trump manages to get China to play fair with even the slightest concessions on IT, tech will rip even higher. I am a little in shock as to how far these stocks have come so quickly. Is it possible that China has no plans to negotiate on IT? Yes. But what if they do? 

Hey Gamble.. well played.   I got  GOOGL 100 points before that  !  They  are truly  a monster.   I like them more long term than  APPLE,  truth to be told.   In any event,  we both make money  ! 

I gotta tell you.. I ain't too crazy about phase  1 . I personally think it's a lot of hoopla w no significant follow through.   My beef ?  What is the enforcement mechanism  ?  It's  a very smart idea by the Trump administration to keep tariffs on since the Cheaters will resort to their cheating ways !    Tech will not get any significant breakthrough by way of a trade deal.. particularly GOOGL.... maybe APPL  w all the phones they make in  China.