What does this mean for the markets? With earnings on the s&p in the mid teens and tariffs eliminated or rolled back, the market will go higher and fully erase the bear market losses. I believe this is guaranteed.
New market highs (just how high the fed will allow the markets to go is the question) will be made, but this will give the Fed the green light to resume it's rate hiking plan.....perhaps as soon as late this year but maybe not until 2020. The Fed's influence on the markets is and will always be the #1 story.
So...how high does the Fed allow this market to run?
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What does this mean for the markets? With earnings on the s&p in the mid teens and tariffs eliminated or rolled back, the market will go higher and fully erase the bear market losses. I believe this is guaranteed.
New market highs (just how high the fed will allow the markets to go is the question) will be made, but this will give the Fed the green light to resume it's rate hiking plan.....perhaps as soon as late this year but maybe not until 2020. The Fed's influence on the markets is and will always be the #1 story.
So...how high does the Fed allow this market to run?
Goose....While it's no secret that China has basically replicated (stolen our IP) our USA chip technology, they still import most of their computer chips from the USA. So I 100% agree with you on your picks. I prefer the QQQ for the simplicity factor and diversification of risk. While a China deal is never going to include IP, eliminating the tariff risk should propel the group.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Goose....While it's no secret that China has basically replicated (stolen our IP) our USA chip technology, they still import most of their computer chips from the USA. So I 100% agree with you on your picks. I prefer the QQQ for the simplicity factor and diversification of risk. While a China deal is never going to include IP, eliminating the tariff risk should propel the group.
These charts looks identical too..I do give a slight edge to CY though.
MACD looks like it wants to roll over but everything else is looking like it's going up to test 16.17 area.You see a close over that price and I'd buy cause 17.50 the next stop IMO.
Will keep CY on the radar for a bit and hope for a pullback to 14.40s,that would be a nice setup!
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These charts looks identical too..I do give a slight edge to CY though.
MACD looks like it wants to roll over but everything else is looking like it's going up to test 16.17 area.You see a close over that price and I'd buy cause 17.50 the next stop IMO.
Will keep CY on the radar for a bit and hope for a pullback to 14.40s,that would be a nice setup!
There has been no hint of a deal pending with China, yet the QQQ has soared from 170 to 182 since my purchase last month. I hope someone reading this benefited.
When the deal with China comes together, the QQQ will hit 200 in the blink of an eye. Forget the penny stocks and join me for the ride up on this one!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
There has been no hint of a deal pending with China, yet the QQQ has soared from 170 to 182 since my purchase last month. I hope someone reading this benefited.
When the deal with China comes together, the QQQ will hit 200 in the blink of an eye. Forget the penny stocks and join me for the ride up on this one!
With virtually zero news over the past 72 hours on the trade war negotiations, I am surprised that the markets are bouncing back so aggressively. The tarrifs and the threat of additional tarrifs create a heightened threat of inflation. Is the economy so strong that it doesn't matter?
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0
With virtually zero news over the past 72 hours on the trade war negotiations, I am surprised that the markets are bouncing back so aggressively. The tarrifs and the threat of additional tarrifs create a heightened threat of inflation. Is the economy so strong that it doesn't matter?
The blacklisting of Huawei is huge FU to China, hes cutting off the chips and other technology they use to gather information...unfortunately my small XLNX position toook a big hit today however they should overcome the 10% revenue loss in quick order.
Yes I do believe our economy will absorb the increased pricing of tariffs easily, even our favorite company to hate----Walmart--- has been aggressively shifting supply chains out of China the past year.
I don't think a deal will come anytime soon because both D and R have decided enough is enough and prez gas shown willingness to go to the mat on this issue... the 25% on 300B will be enacted and dont be surprised if it hits 50% if the Chinese are stubborn on tech transfers and stolen IP.
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The blacklisting of Huawei is huge FU to China, hes cutting off the chips and other technology they use to gather information...unfortunately my small XLNX position toook a big hit today however they should overcome the 10% revenue loss in quick order.
Yes I do believe our economy will absorb the increased pricing of tariffs easily, even our favorite company to hate----Walmart--- has been aggressively shifting supply chains out of China the past year.
I don't think a deal will come anytime soon because both D and R have decided enough is enough and prez gas shown willingness to go to the mat on this issue... the 25% on 300B will be enacted and dont be surprised if it hits 50% if the Chinese are stubborn on tech transfers and stolen IP.
No deal yet....I suppose it really is all about the Fed. I'm silently optimistic but feel like something isn't right....I might be watching too much Guy Adami on Fast Money. That guy has been short the market all year and is taking a bath, yet keeps preaching that the end is coming.
Stay tuned!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
No deal yet....I suppose it really is all about the Fed. I'm silently optimistic but feel like something isn't right....I might be watching too much Guy Adami on Fast Money. That guy has been short the market all year and is taking a bath, yet keeps preaching that the end is coming.
Trump's phase one wasn't all we hoped for but the tariff problem is going away and that's a great start. Also, with China "cooperating" with Trump on IP on a proposed second phase of negotiations, I believe tech starts ripping upward. GOOG in particular, seems ready for a breakout. The charts have shown three different 20% corrections over the past 2 years but should now lead tech higher. I still prefer the QQQ....just ride the sector. If you missed it earlier, it's time to make some money.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
1
Trump's phase one wasn't all we hoped for but the tariff problem is going away and that's a great start. Also, with China "cooperating" with Trump on IP on a proposed second phase of negotiations, I believe tech starts ripping upward. GOOG in particular, seems ready for a breakout. The charts have shown three different 20% corrections over the past 2 years but should now lead tech higher. I still prefer the QQQ....just ride the sector. If you missed it earlier, it's time to make some money.
Is this a dream or is this real life? If you have been on the sidelines, it's getting harder to recommend that you jump in now but it looks like market momentum is taking us significantly higher along all sectors.....everything is soaring and shorts are being covered daily. The bears now have no other choice but to cover their shorts. It just doesn't pay to be a bear.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Is this a dream or is this real life? If you have been on the sidelines, it's getting harder to recommend that you jump in now but it looks like market momentum is taking us significantly higher along all sectors.....everything is soaring and shorts are being covered daily. The bears now have no other choice but to cover their shorts. It just doesn't pay to be a bear.
Yeah that has been the case for ten years...the moral of the story is the market really feels that the FED will never let it go down more than 10 percent without taking action.
I am not a believer that the FED can save the market nor would they, NOR do they have the powder to if they needed. But I've been a skeptic and wrong for a very long time. Valuations mean nothing and this is across most every industry, not just tech. The hunt for yield and the way the FED is forcing people into the markets for a return is very very very scary.
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Yeah that has been the case for ten years...the moral of the story is the market really feels that the FED will never let it go down more than 10 percent without taking action.
I am not a believer that the FED can save the market nor would they, NOR do they have the powder to if they needed. But I've been a skeptic and wrong for a very long time. Valuations mean nothing and this is across most every industry, not just tech. The hunt for yield and the way the FED is forcing people into the markets for a return is very very very scary.
Wall....I have long understood your skepticism of the markets. However, the reality is that P/E ratios are stable and earnings growth over the past 10 years has kept up with stock prices. Further, while the market P/E is a lagging indicator, the current level around 20 is sustainable as long as earnings growth continues. This is nothing like the financial crisis in 2008-2009 when stock prices were in a bubble and P/E ratios soared above 40 on the s&p and over 100 on the NASDQ. That was a situation like no other. This is not. Over the past 3 decades, the biggest market crashes were fairly easy to spot in regard to the overall market P/E. When P/E's spiked to 41 on the s&p back in 2001, the markets were already a year into a 40% correction that created a 5 year bear market. Obviously, everyone knows the same thing happened again in 2008-2009.
In summary, with an accommodating FED, the only risk to this market is a recession and tumbling earnings. With 1.9% growth forecast for the current quarter and beyond, a recession just isn't happening.
The markets are not nearly as scary as you say when you look at the historical data.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Wall....I have long understood your skepticism of the markets. However, the reality is that P/E ratios are stable and earnings growth over the past 10 years has kept up with stock prices. Further, while the market P/E is a lagging indicator, the current level around 20 is sustainable as long as earnings growth continues. This is nothing like the financial crisis in 2008-2009 when stock prices were in a bubble and P/E ratios soared above 40 on the s&p and over 100 on the NASDQ. That was a situation like no other. This is not. Over the past 3 decades, the biggest market crashes were fairly easy to spot in regard to the overall market P/E. When P/E's spiked to 41 on the s&p back in 2001, the markets were already a year into a 40% correction that created a 5 year bear market. Obviously, everyone knows the same thing happened again in 2008-2009.
In summary, with an accommodating FED, the only risk to this market is a recession and tumbling earnings. With 1.9% growth forecast for the current quarter and beyond, a recession just isn't happening.
The markets are not nearly as scary as you say when you look at the historical data.
Big news today with the trade deal as Trump and Xi have agreed to roll back tariff's put in place earlier in the year as they near completion of their phase one deal. Some of the opportunities I have pointed out have fattened up significantly as GOOG has soared over 1300, the QQQ over 201 and the SPY hitting all time highs at 309. These are great times indeed!
With a bump in exports of oil and natural gas to China now becoming a very real possibility, I do believe there are opportunities remaining in energy. The XLE has been a horrible laggard and underperformer to the markets for nearly 2 decades. The index is around a 5 year low and is down 40% since the summer of 2014. Again, I tend to prefer the ETF's as a risk diversifier and see the downside risk for the XLE to be minimal at current levels. Languishing around 60, the XLE is ripe for a rebound on the China trade deal with minimal downside risk.
Not much chatter here, but I hope some of you are profiting on my calls. Don't miss out as the most profitable development in the history of trade propels our markets higher. Remember, it's time in the market as opposed to timing the market that will make you realize your financial goals.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Big news today with the trade deal as Trump and Xi have agreed to roll back tariff's put in place earlier in the year as they near completion of their phase one deal. Some of the opportunities I have pointed out have fattened up significantly as GOOG has soared over 1300, the QQQ over 201 and the SPY hitting all time highs at 309. These are great times indeed!
With a bump in exports of oil and natural gas to China now becoming a very real possibility, I do believe there are opportunities remaining in energy. The XLE has been a horrible laggard and underperformer to the markets for nearly 2 decades. The index is around a 5 year low and is down 40% since the summer of 2014. Again, I tend to prefer the ETF's as a risk diversifier and see the downside risk for the XLE to be minimal at current levels. Languishing around 60, the XLE is ripe for a rebound on the China trade deal with minimal downside risk.
Not much chatter here, but I hope some of you are profiting on my calls. Don't miss out as the most profitable development in the history of trade propels our markets higher. Remember, it's time in the market as opposed to timing the market that will make you realize your financial goals.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that trade talks with China were moving along “very nicely,” but the United States would only make a deal with Beijing if it was the right deal for America.
This is all just nice words and phrases. You have to know the inside details to know anything.
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that trade talks with China were moving along “very nicely,” but the United States would only make a deal with Beijing if it was the right deal for America.
This is all just nice words and phrases. You have to know the inside details to know anything.
I agree that it's all nice words and phrases, but does it really matter if both the US and China have backed off of implementing additional tariffs? The deal will happen eventually, most likely when Trump feels that the timing will benefit him most in November of 2020.
This week was the bears opportunity to make some noise and they haven't gotten anything going yet. The resiliency of the markets is very impressive.
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0
I agree that it's all nice words and phrases, but does it really matter if both the US and China have backed off of implementing additional tariffs? The deal will happen eventually, most likely when Trump feels that the timing will benefit him most in November of 2020.
This week was the bears opportunity to make some noise and they haven't gotten anything going yet. The resiliency of the markets is very impressive.
More nice words today....this time by Larry Kudlow about the pending finalization of the phase one deal. Meanwhile, neither Trump or Xi is talking tariffs.
Is anyone making money on my advice or is everyone holding SHMP or some other worthless penny praying for miracles?
I have hit so many home runs this year, I'm getting tired circling the bases!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
More nice words today....this time by Larry Kudlow about the pending finalization of the phase one deal. Meanwhile, neither Trump or Xi is talking tariffs.
Is anyone making money on my advice or is everyone holding SHMP or some other worthless penny praying for miracles?
I have hit so many home runs this year, I'm getting tired circling the bases!
The market continues to hit new highs almost daily, with no impressive news for it to respond this way. FOMO (Fear of missing out) is alive and well and seems to be pushing it higher at this point. Mutual Funds/Hedge Funds that have held too much cash for much of the year are trying to play catch up, as the S&P trounces them. I personally think the "Phase 1" China Deal is more elusive than most people think. It is all talk (and has been for much of the past 1+ year) until someone signs a deal. China is always looking for more concessions ( like rolling back existing tariffs), and changes earlier agreements that were held in principle. This is what blew up the talks earlier in the year. These people just don't keep their word.
At the end of the day, China has no serious plans to alter their market structure IMHO, and no plans to truly open their markets to foreign companies. China needs to continue to cheat and steal in order to compete in any meaningful way. President Xi of the Communist Party works to further consolidate power , and what is stated above is a means to that end.
I fully expect the tariffs that are currently in place,.... to be in place for years..... They will not change their illegal behavior that quickly, or ever.
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The market continues to hit new highs almost daily, with no impressive news for it to respond this way. FOMO (Fear of missing out) is alive and well and seems to be pushing it higher at this point. Mutual Funds/Hedge Funds that have held too much cash for much of the year are trying to play catch up, as the S&P trounces them. I personally think the "Phase 1" China Deal is more elusive than most people think. It is all talk (and has been for much of the past 1+ year) until someone signs a deal. China is always looking for more concessions ( like rolling back existing tariffs), and changes earlier agreements that were held in principle. This is what blew up the talks earlier in the year. These people just don't keep their word.
At the end of the day, China has no serious plans to alter their market structure IMHO, and no plans to truly open their markets to foreign companies. China needs to continue to cheat and steal in order to compete in any meaningful way. President Xi of the Communist Party works to further consolidate power , and what is stated above is a means to that end.
I fully expect the tariffs that are currently in place,.... to be in place for years..... They will not change their illegal behavior that quickly, or ever.
Yeah Rush. I agree with everything you said. However, the more it looks like Trump wins re-election, the better the odds the US will come out of this trade war with a bigger win. I think it is a widely held view the Democrats would not push this agenda like Trump will. Heck, the Democrats are such a mess right now that the DNC is 7 million in debt and would lose a fundraising competition to the Girl Scouts of America. Meanwhile, the RNC collected nearly 70 mil in donations in October. China will eventually get backed into a corner when Trump wins in 2020.
That said, I am surprised with phase 1 not put into ink, that the markets are surging higher. I haven't studied the shorts, but I would imagine we are getting to the point where the shorts that haven't been flushed yet will be flushed out completely pretty soon. The next round of reported earnings had better knock it out of the park. FOMO will only take you so far.
I'm just along for the ride as high as it takes us and understand that a 10% hit to the downside will be coming eventually. I don't attempt to time the markets. I'm not that smart.
I would only put fresh $$$$ in beaten down areas right now. Energy and Europe are primed for a rebound. Other than that, I just riding the wave.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Yeah Rush. I agree with everything you said. However, the more it looks like Trump wins re-election, the better the odds the US will come out of this trade war with a bigger win. I think it is a widely held view the Democrats would not push this agenda like Trump will. Heck, the Democrats are such a mess right now that the DNC is 7 million in debt and would lose a fundraising competition to the Girl Scouts of America. Meanwhile, the RNC collected nearly 70 mil in donations in October. China will eventually get backed into a corner when Trump wins in 2020.
That said, I am surprised with phase 1 not put into ink, that the markets are surging higher. I haven't studied the shorts, but I would imagine we are getting to the point where the shorts that haven't been flushed yet will be flushed out completely pretty soon. The next round of reported earnings had better knock it out of the park. FOMO will only take you so far.
I'm just along for the ride as high as it takes us and understand that a 10% hit to the downside will be coming eventually. I don't attempt to time the markets. I'm not that smart.
I would only put fresh $$$$ in beaten down areas right now. Energy and Europe are primed for a rebound. Other than that, I just riding the wave.
Those are wise words, Gamble... No one can time the markets. I did choose to do a little rebalancing last week to my target mix, which only amounted to a couple of percentage points on the overall portfolio. Hardly meaningful, but made me feel better.
If there's ever any 1 valuable investing mantra, it's what you said about timing the market. No one can do it successfully over a long period of time, so no one should try to do it... It could prove disastrous to anyone's investment goals..
Energy and Europe are sure beaten down as you mentioned. I keep my foreign exposure at around 20% , and rebalance to keep it at that target every 6 months or so. Like you said about timing, I don't try to time when market sectors or foreign/domestic stocks will be rebound. Rebalancing helps me do that and keep the emotion out of it.
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Those are wise words, Gamble... No one can time the markets. I did choose to do a little rebalancing last week to my target mix, which only amounted to a couple of percentage points on the overall portfolio. Hardly meaningful, but made me feel better.
If there's ever any 1 valuable investing mantra, it's what you said about timing the market. No one can do it successfully over a long period of time, so no one should try to do it... It could prove disastrous to anyone's investment goals..
Energy and Europe are sure beaten down as you mentioned. I keep my foreign exposure at around 20% , and rebalance to keep it at that target every 6 months or so. Like you said about timing, I don't try to time when market sectors or foreign/domestic stocks will be rebound. Rebalancing helps me do that and keep the emotion out of it.
It could be 'Gamble.... I think we can safely say there will be no Phase 1 trade agreement before the end of the year. The only drama left before then is if Trump enacts the increased Tarriffs on Dec. 15. The next 2 weeks may decide that if the rhetoric heats up between the two countries..
Some are saying that increased tariffs may take a hit to Christmas shopping, which is silly. Those goods on store shelves haven't been exposed to tariffs. Quite the contrary. Those goods on store shelves should be bought before those products are exposed to tariffs next year !!
Stock market does seem primed for another Q4 meltdown, and late buyers of the last few weeks are gonna get screwed. Which as we say, don't try to time the market.
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It could be 'Gamble.... I think we can safely say there will be no Phase 1 trade agreement before the end of the year. The only drama left before then is if Trump enacts the increased Tarriffs on Dec. 15. The next 2 weeks may decide that if the rhetoric heats up between the two countries..
Some are saying that increased tariffs may take a hit to Christmas shopping, which is silly. Those goods on store shelves haven't been exposed to tariffs. Quite the contrary. Those goods on store shelves should be bought before those products are exposed to tariffs next year !!
Stock market does seem primed for another Q4 meltdown, and late buyers of the last few weeks are gonna get screwed. Which as we say, don't try to time the market.
Nope. Trump confirmed it himself in a tweet. No phase 1 deal until next year. So what's the cause for the bounce-back today??? The vix had crept up to 16 yesterday but is down 10% today. So confusing! Show me a person that can time this market and I'll show you a person that might go to jail for insider trading.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
0
Nope. Trump confirmed it himself in a tweet. No phase 1 deal until next year. So what's the cause for the bounce-back today??? The vix had crept up to 16 yesterday but is down 10% today. So confusing! Show me a person that can time this market and I'll show you a person that might go to jail for insider trading.
Lots more "talk" today on the China trade deal.. Seems like Trump is not only willing to forgo new tariffs on Dec. 15, but also cut some/all of the existing tariffs .
Let's see how close we really are to a deal.....
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Lots more "talk" today on the China trade deal.. Seems like Trump is not only willing to forgo new tariffs on Dec. 15, but also cut some/all of the existing tariffs .
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