@arch1969
1000% and thats why the hook comes into play 90% of the time (90% is my own humble sarcastic guesstimate).
Not to mention they will take "the public" or "eye test" or "what have you done for me lately" take and possibly anticipate the future moves to "middle".
@ILOVEfOOTBALLS
Nevermind, I was going to reply, but its not worth it...Liked your theories/takes but contradictions stood out to me? Not knocking you, just questioning.
Now I think I will respond..only due to your condesending GROWN UPS remark, what? The "mommy's basement" wasn't available at good enough odds?
As you were hankering down on the "ODDS" angle (which seemed to be the point of the thread), which is fine...Big bets, All Ins, Smart small wagers for weekly Profits aside, now you abandon the "odds" angle??? Now you are spitting out STATS to support your pick? Again, another conottradicktion...
In summation, I liked your thread, an interesting read. However, the contradictions take away from 'my own appreciation' of my takeaway from your thread.
And your silly "grown ups" reply just makes me lose all "credibility" in you...One who gets defensive and name calling when attempting to support a pick is lame. Which makes me feel that you are trying to convince yourself of your pick.
You put your pick out there, either support your pick with the "odds" angle, "All Road Dogs of 3.5 Win" angle, "State all the STATS" angle...or hell use ALL THREE of them, which in and of itself is by definition...a contradiction.
AGAIN, GL on your pick regardless of how you came to it!
The way this week is going I may take Jax ML, with some player props.
And yes, I live by your theory of small wins and profits each week is the way to go, for me. I've been profitable every weekend with NCAA and NFL. But i did go big on DET against my Bungles (not against a Big Bet when it presents itself).
Keep up what your doing, as I do look for your post as a positive informative read. I am not here to follow, or influence my picks, but for general geographical information to compare to my own research and/or gut feelings.
Best of luck on a profitable year!