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Euro 2008 part 3 - final round of group games....

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Legend
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Posted: #1
SUNDAY:
 
THe first game has Switzerland vs Portugal.  How can anyone predict this game?  Portugal has already qualified and is expected to rest Ronaldo, Deco, and Ricardo at the least, and up to 4 other starters at the most.  The game means nothing to Portugal.
 
Switzerland will certainly want to win the game for their home fans - they will have to feel shortchanged as they were heartbroken in 2 games - both losses.  The problem for them is always scoring they have only scored once in 2 games - but add to that their best striker (Frei), their second best striker (Streller), and their replacement (derdyok) are all out.  So they are likely going to have a midfielder at striker on Sunday.
 
Given all of that - I cant see having a penny on this game.  I really think anything can happen, wager at your own risk.
 
Second game has Czech vs Turkey.  I have this as a dead even game, and for some reason the Czechs are a pretty decent favorite.  A draw in this one will mean a penalty kick competition with no extra time to determine who will advance - and my guess is that it will come to that.  I think both teams will play very cautiously with little adventurous attacking.  The longer this one stays scoreless, the liklier they are to play not to lose.
 
I think the under is a good bet, along with Turkey.  I will be on Turkey PK, +.5 at -102.  I want to win on a draw and this will do it for me, I will also be on Turkey to advance at +137.  Both will equal a normal size wager - I dont love this or anything - just think there is value on what I see as a very even game.
 
GL all.  This round of games are going to have very few bettable games because of 4 of the 8 games are meaningless for at least 1 of the teams involved - which makes it almost impossible to handicap.
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Posted: #2
van - Is the only future that you have down on the Dutch?  I've got the Dutch and Portugal.
 
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Posted: #3
i like the turkey +.5 for -102 van.....i can see this game going into penalties too.  gl on whatever you do, i might just sit these out maybe grab the unders if they aren't -200 for U2.5 or anything crazy.  most likely just going to check out the match-ups for golf though.  woods over mickelson looks solid right now but f-ing appleby putting up a +8 and probably still rising as we speak makes me want to kick him in the nuts.  what a crash and burn he has been today, they stopped showing him on tv it's been so pathetic
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Posted: #4
Final rounds of the group stages are always the hardest. What team do Portugal put out tonight? How many minutes do the starters play?

It will be interesting to see how the Netherlands approach their game. Do they want to see France and Italy gone, or do they want to keep the momentum up?
 
MVP
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Posted: #5
A flier on the Swiss may be prudent as well.  No reason both dogs couldn't come in tomorrow. PK is +135, the PK/.5 split is -104.

Personally I would like to see Czech advance as I think they are the more dangerous and interesting side, but from a betting perspective I think you have it exactly right.

GL
 
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Posted: #6
Vanzacker, whats money and whatsnot
 
portugal to win group +130
portuagal o5.5 -145 (at 5 right now)
russia to advance +120
russai o3 goals -120 (at 2 right now)
 
i know what u'll say about the portuguese futures... but what about the Russian ones? they need to win outright against sweden to advance... and will they score? how would you hedge against those? or would you? arvashin is back for the game, could be big for russia, swedes outside of ibrahimovic haven't impressed me all that much, greece sucked ass and russia coulda beaten them 3-nil also
 
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Posted: #7
Dutch on fire.  I look for them to play in game 3.  They'd be crazy to call off the dogs and lose the momentum they have.
 
Soccer is a lot like baseball.  When you're scoring and getting hits, the last thing you want is to lose the rhythm.  Dutch sitting out game 3 would be just like Rockies last year before WS with Boston..........the bats didn't play for like 9 days, and they lost their timing.
 
I, too, liked Dutch before this whole thing began but was too much of a chicken sheet to play their advance/win it all odds.  Instead, put that money on "Lakers/Celtics Go 7" and now I am the house stooge.
 
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Posted: #8
Doubt the Swiss can score 2 even against resting Portugese
 
Swiss/Port under 2.5
 
Czech pk(-140)/ML +130 combo
 
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Posted: #9
my usual sources - local papers and websites I'm fmiliar with - have virtually no coverage of Euro soccer. Can anyone direct me to a god link where I can read about this stuff ?
Thanks,
AND
I assume the first part of Vanzack's bet is a blend of Turkey PK and Turkey +.5 , with the affect that he wins a tie on half his bet ??
 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

my usual sources - local papers and websites I'm fmiliar with - have virtually no coverage of Euro soccer. Can anyone direct me to a god link where I can read about this stuff ?
Thanks,
AND
I assume the first part of Vanzack's bet is a blend of Turkey PK and Turkey +.5 , with the affect that he wins a tie on half his bet ??
 

www.soccernet.com

And yes, my bet on Turkey will be a blend of PK and +.5

Matthaus - I do not think Russia advances, I dont think they will beat a sweden team that knows they only need to draw to advance.  Especially after watching Russia - they could have had 5 goals yesterday if they made the right pass at the right time-  they dont seem to have that - probably youth and inexperience.  I dont know how to tell you to hedge that.....

Thanks all for the comments.......

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Posted: #11
thanks, mr van. and happy father's day to you.
 
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Posted: #12
TURKEY!!!
 
3-2 final
 
never a doubt
 
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Posted: #13
they made up for that bs call in the austria game
 
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Posted: #14
Turkey ML +248
 
When you think about it, this game was a guaranteed winner.
 
Czech was about +130 and Turkey was +248 and draw was +220
 
Theres no way this game could end in a draw if you look at the standings. ONE TEAM HAD TO WIN
 
I chose Turkey since vanzack thought they had the edge.
 
 
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Posted: #15
 
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Posted: #16
cheeze, those bets are only 90 minutes. it doesn't matter if someone would have won in penalty kicks. it totally coulda ended in a draw
 
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Posted: #17
Ohhh I see now
 
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Posted: #18
Yeah, I should definitely be betting these games instead of just following them.  Had a 2-0 day nailed again calling both underdogs.  Of course, if I start now I will lose every single wager I place. LOL

Won't be at a computer tomorrow during the day so I will pre-emptively say that I expect Germany to lay down a really serious ass-whooping and probably win by multiple goals to silence the doubters, but just the same I wouldn't try to bet it.  Too expensive.

In the other match I would recommend OVER 2 and 2.5 for a little juice.  Poland needs more than a win, they need goals, so look for that approach, and even if their attacking formation doesn't yield several goals it is more likely to give up some as well.  The Croats are certain to rest some people, that could be good or bad depending on who they end up resting.
 
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Posted: #19
You guys are getting very spoiled.  Turkey comes back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 and I see very litte celebration.  I felt alone.
 
Monday:
 
Forget the Croatia / Poland game - same reasons as yesterdays Portugal / Switz game - and same reason as the 2 more games with teams that have already qualified.  You dont know what you are going to get, the line is wacky, and Im not interested.
 
As for the Germany / Austria game, I see a major beatdown coming.  I have been against Austria every game, and I cant believe Germany doesnt win this game.  Its a great spot for Germany to lay the wood on Austria - this is a mistmatch.
 
If Germany draws here I will be shocked - I hate laying -232 but Im doing it here.
 
Germany -232 to win. 
 
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Posted: #20
what do you think of the over for the GERMANY game  VAN?
 
I can get the over 2.5 at -135
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by superbeets:

what do you think of the over for the GERMANY game  VAN?
 
I can get the over 2.5 at -135

I will be surprised if Austria scores.  Germany could get 3 easily by themselves, but Im not interested in overs where only one team should score.  Although if Germany scores early Austria will have to go for broke.

Its a no bet for me.....

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Posted: #22
Im laying -1 1/2 goals with Germany cause my local blows cock. He is offering Germany at -350 and the -1 1/2 @ -110!
 
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Posted: #23
I can't find better than -300 either, so I'll pass.
 
Good luck to you though Van.
 
 
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Posted: #24
i'm on germany to score first -250 and germany to score in each half +110
 
man if they go 45 min without netting one, or if austria scores in the first half.... wow.... will be a total shocker
 
this should be an invasion the likes austria hasn't seen since WW2
 
 
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Posted: #25
Some belated appreciation for that Turkey call. I was glued to the US Open
I mirrored your play at just about -102 and happily cashed again. Nice going 
My only loser so far= Germany against Croatia.
GL today.
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