CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

Hoya Pride...

@helpondaway

 That was shocking.....The Ewing Era a long time ago was special..

Looks like Getty found himself a lawyer 

With only 3 games remaining, and the books spread sharper than ever, how much handicapping can one do to find an edge at this point? Almost everything we find will lead us to a spread under a fg for each game.

Some people will look for motivational angles, when all of those will wash themselves out at kickoff. Every team is 100% motivated. 

Best thing to look at is coaching and schemes. We can put our best guesses as to what teams should do, and will they do it is another mystery. What fumbles, interceptions, penalties, missed penalties, special teams blunders/splash plays that happen are nearly unpredictable. 

It's no time to bet real big imo.

As for props and derivative bets, there can be value found. Just need to dig deep and put the work in. The books know this, and the prices usually suck. For instance one side on a prop will be +110, the other side -140.

@undermysac

 Or ya could roll the dice with the totals.Not a prop person but i thing a defensive score is quite possible in Philly. 

Lowvig has lookahead sides and totals for all 4 potential matchups, you could bet on them starting yesterday.   I am guessing if you bet on a team or total that loses this weekend the bet is voided.

Cincy vs Niners PK, total 46

Chiefs vs Niners PK, total 46

Cincy vs Eagles -1.5, total 49.5

KC vs Eagles -1.5, total 48.5

also........like chattanooga today.

@undermysac

 agreed.  

I'm done rooting for a Brock Purdy pick.

Watch he'll throw 4 interceptable balls, all will be dropped. He will roll only to his left, escape 11 sacks, and never fumble.

Sound right?

@bigred84

 Trust me when I say we are not signing wentz 

@undermysac

He had a decent college career...

 But if he isnt the QB of San Fran not sure

how talented he is....His best year was his sophomore 

year....I think Trey Lance will be their starter next year..

anyone else think it is kinda crazy that Rolen gets in the HOF while Kent doesn't?  

Who did he piss off?  I seem to remember stories surrounding Kent throughout his career about him being kind of a dick, and not getting along with Barry Bonds (which is probably not so difficult).........but he is HOF worthy statistically imo.

IDK,......maybe i am missing something, but I just disagree with what they did here.

They both should be left out imo.  I am not arguing that Kent should be in over Rolen, although that in and of itself is debatable, especially if you look at their average 162 game season stats.....but to take until the last time you are on the ballot to get in barely by a few votes is just silly.  Threshold should be higher if this is what happens.  

@JDD

 Todd Helton blows Rolen and Kent out of the water and he didn't even have a HOF caliber career. So you're right. None of them should get in. 

@Getty3

 I agree, and I was looking at his stats this morning actually, I looked at his home/away splits, and that has to be the reasoning the voters are keeping him out.  It is also not his fault he played in Colorado half his games.......but an argument can be made that he is maybe not a HOF'er away from Colorado.......I guess.

Totally agree with you though.........and this is all a major head scratcher to me........I think Canton and Cooperstown are going to get very strange over the next decade.  Lots of arguing.  To me, the threshold needs to be higher......like 85-90%.  75% to get in the Baseball HOF is just too low to me.  3 out of 4, with the general lack of judgement and ability to assess things that a normal human has on a good day, is just too low.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35517811/49ers-charles-omenihu-arrested-domestic-incident%3fplatform=amp

Charles is Bosa's backup. But a rotational player on that d line. He's seen as low as 25% of the snaps, and high as 78% in any given game. Usually around 40 to 60%.

67.5 pff grade. That's really good for a rotational piece as himself. He is listed on the injury report as "possible suspension" as of now.

My mind goes right to Philly's rpo's and edge runs. Dallas couldn't run the edges once Pollard went down. They tried a couple with Zeke and it was a laughable.

Just something to think about. Bossa and Ebukam will get more PT with less breathers.

If you didn't know, the Niners were all ready thin at DT. Hassan Ridgeway went down over a month ago. They've been running a 4 man rotation at DT.

They rotate all their linemen regularly throughout a game to keep guys fresh.

If he gets suspended, maybe the lack of rotational depth will affect the Niners 2H? 4th quarter?

Talk about grasping at straws ay? But I know that no one else will talk about it or see it as a concern. So that's that.

@Getty3

 @JDD

If Harold Baines can get into the HOF, I guess anyone can.

@undermysac

 I loved Harold Baines. Matt Stairs famously used to talk about himself in the 3rd person as "Professional Hitter Matt Stairs." But Harold was the purest of professional hitters. Personally I'd put Oscar Gamble in the HOF just for his unforgettable Afro, the fact he owned a discotheque in Alabama and his legendary Oscarism "They don't think it be like it is, but it do."

Small sample sized stat of the day:

The Bengals and Chiefs have only 3 common opponents all season. 

Bengals 3-0 with a +32 pt diff

Chiefs 2-1 with a +9 pt diff

Big money has come in both sides of the AFC Champ game. All of them taking the team which was getting points (Cinci early, KC later)

For the tin foil cap crowd :Caesars Sports on the NFC "SF winning the Super Bowl would be a massive loss for us based on futures. We're good with any of the other 3 teams."

Biggest bet on the game so far was $129K on Philly -2.5

The people who get to vote are meaningless.

It's a double edged sword. People want the over 60 crowd to stop voting but they are the same guys who watched these guys play in their prime.