CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

Your attempt at reconciliation with Wally is going swimmingly well

you gotta be running out of user name ideas by now 

plenty of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul references out there as well.  a literal treasure trove  

Oh no...did the Jets really hire Nathaniel Hacket as OC?

Is this to try n sway Rodgers?

Spread for AFC Championship Game at @BetMGM

Open: Chiefs -1.5

Monday: Bengals -1.5

Tuesday: Bengals -2.5

Wednesday: Bengals -1.5

Thursday: Chiefs -1

Friday: Chiefs -1.5

Mahomes ....

Patriots hire Bill O'Brian as New OC

Here's a little something I found interesting, as the perception of all 4 teams run offense is probably different from the #'s.

Top run offenses(weighted) including the playoffs:

Eagles #1 at 17.1%

Bengals #2 at 9.9%

Chiefs #10 at 2.1%

49ers #13 at -0.2%

To be fair, let's see the Run D rankings, same parameters: Remember with defensive dvoa, minus is good.

#2 49ers at -22.7%

#11 Bengals at -12.1%

#18 Chiefs at -4.4%

#21 Eagles at -1.5%

How good is the Niners run D really? Who have they faced that can run the ball the ole fashioned way? Here's some interesting results. I'll go in order of best to worst run O's the Niners have faced.

Falcons, #4 at +8.2%. The Niners lost 14-28. Marriota 6 carries for 50 yards and a td. RB's carried 33 times for 116 yards.

Raiders, #8 at 3.9%. The Niners won in OT 37-34, vs Stidham. He had 7 carries for 34 yards. RB's carried 25 times for 101 yards and 1 td.

Chiefs, #10 at 2.1%. The Niners lost 23-44. Mahomes didn't have a single carry, but put up 423 passing. RB's carried 18 times for 115 yards and 3 tds. That's a healthy 6.39 avg.

Cowboys, #11 at 0.8%. The Niners won 19-12. An early exit for Pollard was bad, and we know Zeke sucks. Dak ran 4 times for 22 yards, and probably under utilized in the run. RB's carried 18 times for 54 yards. Pollard=3.67 ypc. Zeke=2.60 ypc.

Bears, #12 at 0.4%. The Niners lost 10-19 in the monsoon bowl. Fields ran 11 times for 28 yards. RB's ran 26 times for 71 yards and 1 td.

I'll stop there, as the rest of the 49ers schedule were teams with negative dvoa rush offenses. Most of those teams near the bottom in rushing. Only the Broncos were able to beat them while having a negative rushing rating.

Let me remind everyone, the Eagles are #1 at 17.1% and have a mobile QB. The next best run offense they've seen were the Falcons at 8.2%

In the last 3 games vs the Chiefs, the Bengals and Lou Anarumo have held them to 20 points in the 2H. And that includes an OT period. 

On the Michael Lombardi podcast, he made an interesting comment. 

"With the remaining teams left in the playoffs, which ones are you comfortable with in making a comeback, playing from behind?"

He then said it's clear who the ONE team is that won't be able to do that. 

Everyone here should know which team that is. I have to agree with him.

I feel like I'm the only one here. Is there someone I'm looking for? Is it Andre Dawson?

The calm before the storm.   I put $400 on Bengals PK.   Those rushing stats have me thinking about getting Philly on my card in some way

Of Bengals listed injuries, all were Full Participants on Friday.  Cappa remains out

Chiefs Hardman still Limited, listed Questionable, Juju also Limited.  Kelce was Full Participant but listed as Questionable with a Back issue.  That's something to keep an eye on in the frigid cold.  10 degrees at night for Sunday

Wondering how hobbled Mahomes fares against the Bengals dropping 8 in coverage on long passing situations

Added 

Exact Super Bowl Outcome:   Bengals defeat Eagles +500

And...

Chase O83.49999 yds rec. 

@undermysac

 That falcons game sticks out. And hurts far more dangerous runner than mariota

@undermysac

 U able to find anything on false start penalties for eagles/9ers? Eagles had some issues late in season but don't know the numbers

Staying on schedule will be important. Neither team will want to start 1st and 15.

i haven’t been in school in quite some time.  Can you just give me the damn answer???

@BIGDTITLE

 My guess was 49ers vs eagles pass d with rookie qb

Monte.....salt and vinegar