CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

Wild Card Weekend schedule and openers:

Saturday 1/14:

4:30pm Eastern on Fox

Seattle @ San Fran -10  O/U  43.5

8:15 Eastern on NBC

San Diego @ Jacksonville +1.5  O/U 47 

Sunday 1/15:

1:00 Eastern on CBS

Miami @ Buffalo -10.5  O/U 44.5

4:30 Eastern on Fox

NY Giants @ Minnesota -3  O/U 47..5

8:15 Eastern on NBC

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -6 (now -6.5)  O/U 43.5

Monday 1/16:

8:15 on NBC

Dallas @ Tampa Bay +3  O/U 45.5

Is the thread title to be read in Jim Mora voice?

I lean Giants. 

NFL having Ravens as sunday nighter they must think Lamar is coming back. 

Seattle vs San Fran:  2 meetings already both won by SF.  Purdy started 1 game, Seattle scored 20 total points between the 2.  Niners on a 10 game win streak with 4 wins over Playoff teams.  Seattle 2-5 against Playoff teams.  See more of the same here as ODB's favorite QB continues to play solid football

Chargers vs Jags:  Jags dominated game in September 38-10.  Chargers ran for 26 yards.  Chargers 1-6 vs Playoff teams.  Jags come on 5 game win streak but looked shaky at best against Tennessee with everything on the line.  Coin flip game for me, which ever QB gets hot and makes the least mistakes will win

Miami vs Buffalo:  Dolphins with zero healthy QB's at the time of writing this.  Tua day to day, Bridgewater 'was battling to be available in an emergency' for yesterdays game and Skylar Thompson 'got twisted up a few times' according to HC Mike McDaniel.  Buffalo comes in off an unprecedented week, rollercoaster of emotions.  Josh Allen's Red Zone turnovers are very worrisome and hit him again against NE.  Buffalo could rally and be unstoppable, or the mental and emotional wear and tear could bog them down.  Luckily for them, they may have the perfect matchup as Miami is banged up at their key positions, Tyreek Hill did not come back after an ankle injury on Sunday.

NYG vs Minnesota:  Newsletter doormats square off in a rematch of a Christmas Eve game won by the Vikings as 1 of their 11 1-score victories (5 by 3 points).  How do we fade both teams?  Vikings dead last in Strength Of Schedule, Giants went 1-5 vs Division opponents.  I wouldn't trust either team, nice mid-afternoon nap game

Ravens vs Bengals:  B2B week rematch, but this time it's all about Lamar.  Bengals season turned after the October 9th loss in Baltimore, going 10-1 after that.  Bengals OL La'el Collins already out, lost G Alex Cappa from the same side and will be Questionable at best for this week.  Still probably better than the OLine they made the SB with last year.  Bottom line, it's Lamar or nothing for the Ravens chances

Dallas vs Tampa:   A game that has 16-13 written all over it.  Dak has thrown 1 INT in every game since Thansgiving, 11 total to 15 TD's.  Inexplicable 14-37 against Washington on Sunday.  The Bucs (according to limited research) are the 4th or 5th team in NFL history to make the Playoffs with a losing record.  Tom Brady broke his own record for completions this year as the Bucs finished 32nd in Rushing Yards.   Rematch of Week 1 which saw 22 total points and 6 combined sacks.  I very much expect more of the same.  First to 14 wins

I hate the Monday Night Wild Card game.  I'm sure both Dallas and Tampa aren't happy about it either, the extra day is nice but the short Divisional week is stupid.  Rams didn't had to deal with it last year and it may have caught up with them in that 2nd half against the Bucs

Even though it's a playoff game i think the Jags will feel less pressure than they did last week. I like the Getties. 

Speaking of pressure McCarthy has to be feeling it unless he's not interested in coaching next year. 

Georgia - 13  

I concur. 

2 tidbits from the senior oddsmaker at the Westgate Superbook in LV :

"Two way action on the Jags/Chargers but all the respected money is on Jacksonville. Shaping up to be a Joes vs. Pros"

"One way traffic on Tampa Bay. Sharps and squares tag teaming us. I'm still confident that Cowboys money comes in as the masses get involved this week."

Smart unexpected move by NFL putting Jax/SD on Saturday prime time. You get both coasts involved and should be a much better game than San Fran/Seattle. 

In response to the few talking heads who will claim that Lovie Smith was fired because he was black, the Cards have fired Kingsbury, the whitest HC in NFL history.

I suppose that I can dig up Mike Mccarthy's ats record after a loss trend somehow. I remember that it is strong. I had it in mind when Dallas beat the Vikings 40-3.

I haven't decided how I'm going to approach this game, but I lean the Chargers here and will probably make a play on them. (Any surprise?)

One thing to keep in mind is that the LA Chargers were at the onset of the injury pandemic that plagued their team. Here's some highlights as to what plagued the team playing against the Jags.

Justin Herbert playing with fractured rib cartilage.

This was the first game after Herbert had his rib cartilage fractured in the Chiefs game the week before. He was questionable during the week leading up to the game, and you could see how it affected his run and throwing mobility.

Austin Ekeler had only 4 carries in that game.

Since that game felt like so long ago (I mean, it was the 3d game of the season), I don't remember the details as to why it was only 4 carries (although he had 8 receptions). Game script? The desire to give Sony Michel -- a recent addition to the team -- more touches? He's no longer on the team because he sucks. The Chargers run game has performed a lot better since that last game.

Corey Linsley (Center) and Rashawn Slater (LT) was out.

Arguably, Linsley and Slater are the best O-linemen on the team.  The team was struggling to find a cohesion on the unit without these two. You could somewhat prepare for Linsley, although the backup centers (Will Clapp and who knows who the other guy is/was) both stink. You had to figure out how to replace Slater though, which later on Jamaree Salyer was able to do admirably. 



To be continued (character count)...

Keenan Allen was out.

The middle of the field route runner is crucial to the offense, and typically is a 3d down conversion machine.

Joey Bosa was hurt and left the game.

Bosa left in the first quarter and didn't return due to a groin injury. Big blow to the defensive unit, and Khalil Mack got all the double teams as a result

Jaylen Guyton suffered a season-ending injury.

While that name might not illicit a head nod-squinted eyes-chin hair stroking combo, he was the speedster that fans wanted the team to have. By all means, he wasn't great, but going into the game out Allen and now Guyton, left the team with Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, and DeAndre Carter. Palmer hadn't really come into his own yet, and Carter is only 5'8" and is/was being asked to do more than what the team really had brought him on for.


Mike Williams had only one catch.

I don't recall why Williams wasn't utilized much. He may have seen double or triple coverage, knowing that the rest of the receivers wouldn't be able to do much.

TLDR Summary:

the Charger team that lost to the Jaguars was severely impacted by injuries/ailments (Herbert, Slater, Bosa, Linsley, Allen, and Guyton -- all either did not start the game or left at some point due to injury). I'd say the biggest impact was Justin Herbert's mobility. He's a much different QB now than the one that played in the Jags game. The team is also much better now and, pending Williams/Bosa/Murray's statuses, are in a healthier place.

So why the lean? Because the Jags have ended the season on a high note. Lawrence and Kirk are clicking. And while they no longer have Robinson (who would probably come in handy in this game), Etienne has done a nice job of absorbing the increased workload. I want to wait to see what Bosa and Williams' statuses are before the game. If Williams plays, and he's playing healthy, it's the Chargers for me.

I'll leave it to Getty to paint the picture on the Jags side.

Offense at Indiana is not equal opportunity. Those players who shoot best are going to shoot most. It is important that every player know his offensive limitations. It is also important that a player know who the best shooter is on the team. When a passer has the option of passing to two players, I expect him to get the ball to the best shooter. I continually stop practice and ask players who the best shooter is and I expect them to know. It is important that you get the ball to your best shooter.

Bobby Knight

I love that guy. 

If Lamar is out, Baltimore is toast.

@iConsciousness

 I would agree not to look too deep into that first meeting. It was a long time ago and I remember it was the first game for Herbert after suffering the rib/sternum injury. He shouldn't have played. Mike Williams as the X receiver gets Tyson Campbell in coverage. He's the best CB in the league that nobody talks about. Even if healthy, Mike Will may not have much impact but they're better when he's on the field because of his big play skillset. What's Nick Bosa's health look like? He's a difference maker in this game either way. 

I know this sounds crazy but to me the Chargers and Jaguars are mirror images of each other. This game will be much more competitive than the first one and I expect points to be aplenty. Henceforth my first play here is on the over 47. 

Every post so far on this thread is why the CD Newsletter is so great.

Now if you allow me to add some devil's advocate to all of your comments, in my best millennial/gen Z way....

The outcomes of all these games are all ready pre determined, y'all are fucked.

Injury updates haven't come in for Joey Bosa (groin), Mike Williams (back), and Kenneth Murray (stinger). To me it seemed like Bosa could've gone back in the game had it been against the Jags this Saturday. He does things with his body to get around blockers that I think puts him in position to get hurt. I love Williams, but that due is fragile. He's not typically a "miss the full season" type of dude, but always misses games due to "this-and-that." He also does things with his body that looks unhuman at times, so there's the best of him and the worst. No Mike Williams, then I don't know what the play would be but I could see the Jags taking this.

Good info on who'd be covering him. Is that who covered him in the previous meeting? That would explain why Williams was shut out. I gotta wonder if having Allen kind of closes the gap a little, and perhaps that's the reason why the line is so tight.

Either team is going to need to play nearly perfect ball to walk away with the dub.  

Thanks and go fuck yourself. 

(Did I do that right? )

@Getty3

"I know this sounds crazy but to me the Chargers and Jaguars are mirror images of each other"

It's not crazy, I was thinking the same thing about this game. Both qb's are the traditional type and both have cannons. When handicapping this game, we can truly discern pass d vs pass o, run d vs run o. As both these QB's aren't the rpo or tuck it and run types.

The mirror matchup qb wise would be Hurts vs Fields

@iConsciousness

 Ravens chances to win would improve with Lamar playing just due to his experience.  The line would tighten.  Without him, Cincy should have a cakewalk.  Just my opinion.  

Absolutely 

@Cranky_Hank

 Throw out the fumble at the end of the first half...and it's 20-16

Yards 390-260 for the Ravens..BWS said they didnt try in the second half..

Jackson rusty...huh...They run the ball....Dobbins n Edwards should both be 

ready to run a lot...Oline is healthy...Peters CB should be ready as well.

Burrow threw for 500 yards a year ago in the last game as the Ravens played 

DB's who are now working at Food Lion....Bengals Oline is banged up..

They better buckle up..Campbell DT is back...Ojabo DE finally played...

These cocky phuckers better be ready and pray Lo Jack cant play...

@bigred84

 “If ‘Ifs and buts’were candies and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas!”

Mike Ditka

I love that guy.