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Bodio's MLB Tue 10/04 (Playoffs)

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Dvegas13:

know its last minute. Thought on texas/Tb total?


I'm passing.  Feels like it might be a high scoring game but my model favors the UNDER slightly
 
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Posted: #52
thx

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Dvegas13:

Damn no response on your model for total runs on texas game?

7.6 total runs
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by musocky:

What are your thoughts on this prob bet Josh Hamilton hits+runs+rbi over 2.5 +105. My thought process is he is due for a breakout game and he us facing a gas can today, one bomb and we cover. Any thoughts

fun action wager....why not? :)
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by musocky:

What are your thoughts on this prob bet Josh Hamilton hits+runs+rbi over 2.5 +105. My thought process is he is due for a breakout game and he us facing a gas can today, one bomb and we cover. Any thoughts

Plus Hellickson is horrendous against lefties so this is a pretty solid action wager
 
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Posted: #56
eh went +4 units last week +400

Took Texas for 2.5 units, and over 8.5 for 1.5 will see how it goes. Im hoping for enjoyable one to watch.

 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by ninefine:

thaknuts flip flopping on a bet when the line move hasn't gone in your favor is a very expensive thing long term.  You have said it yourself... you are basically betting the rangers to win at -178 now when the available line is -105.  This is especially a problem since you are only trying to win 100.  Say you were to double your original bet 699.3 to win 666 on TEX you would effectively reduce the -178 to -127.  Not nearly as bad as the -178 in my opinion but then again if your bankroll can't take that kind of hit (lose 422 if rays win) then I wouldn't suggest it.  You should probably have 16k bankroll to be betting 333 on a game in the first place but to each their own.  Good luck today in whatever you decide.        


excellent points
 
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Posted: #58
Ha there's 1!!!!!!!!!!! gl everyone. 
 
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Posted: #59

I thought for sure youd be on the other way--DET --since you won nicely with them yesterday.

Looks like we might have a lot of runs, and noone can keep up w/ the Bronx Bombers when a game degeberates.

I think you might be right.

 
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Posted: #60
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


excellent points

thanks bodio...

 
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Posted: #62
Bodio , I sent you a PM about how to get your plays other than from Covers . Please response when you have time
 
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Posted: #63
You see why I asked about Det Bullpen it came into play as a big factor late in the game.

Congrats on that Det pick last night. Texas one was a great one.



 
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Posted: #64
you got any info on that AZ and MIL game I notices its a Quite game is it safe to say that could be a nice Under as well with it being a possible elemination Game? MIL looks so strong and the  young guy to get on the mound and due dirt is a real tough position for him.
 
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Posted: #65
good luck brotha man!
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by LTE23:

you got any info on that AZ and MIL game I notices its a Quite game is it safe to say that could be a nice Under as well with it being a possible elemination Game? MIL looks so strong and the  young guy to get on the mound and due dirt is a real tough position for him.

That's a tough game.  My model has that one at 9.0 which is the current total I believe.  So I'm passing there.

Brewers overall are a better team in every category: starting pitching, hitting, bullpen but this Collmenter guy really pitched 2 impressive games against them earlier this season.  Not worth a wager one way or another IMO.  I'm passing
 
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Posted: #67
Good enough for me. I seen it was worth it at 8.5 at -125 but now that its at 9 there is no budge for me.

Best of luck LETS GO YANKS!!!!!
 
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Posted: #68
Good call on the Rangers game. I missed it! 

Got down on the UNDER in the Philly/AZ game.

Can't bet on A J Burnett. The guy is just too erratic. He could have a great game, or he could give up a bunch of runs and leave early.


 
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Posted: #69
great analysis as usual mr bodio...although i'm scratching my head with your burnett backing....not to say he wasn't once great but I just have no clue what Burnett will show up....the Florida Marlins version or the 2010-2011 one....regardless if the Yankees bats explode it won't matter
 
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Posted: #70
I like your Rangers play !

Hopefully they win !
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by McAlpine:

Good call on the Rangers game. I missed it! 

Got down on the UNDER in the Philly/AZ game.

Can't bet on A J Burnett. The guy is just too erratic. He could have a great game, or he could give up a bunch of runs and leave early.



Good call on the Rangers game?  It's in the 3rd inning still!  
 
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Posted: #72
Nice to see you on the TEX-RAG too but a little bummed to see you backing AJ "Another Joint" Burnett and the YANKS.

Glad to see you're still rolling right along in the postseason hope you stay hot man. And thanx for all the hard work buddy . With you,my other footy buddy and a personal heater this has been one of the better stretches of my "career" lolol. I had a nice 3-1 +2.8 day on the bases yesterday and killed the Monday Nighter going 4-0-1 +8.95 units which brought the run to 7 of 8 days in +$ and +41.1 units since last Monday. I couldn't do it without ya man so thanx for the time,effort and like somebody said the other day which often goes un-looked,the willingness to share and teach us.

Stay Hot buddy it's well deserved
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by mylife23:

great analysis as usual mr bodio...although i'm scratching my head with your burnett backing....not to say he wasn't once great but I just have no clue what Burnett will show up....the Florida Marlins version or the 2010-2011 one....regardless if the Yankees bats explode it won't matter

Well, you can say that against a lot of pitchers.  Not many of them are consistent besides the top 10-15 guys.  All we can do is put ourselves in the best position to win long-term and hopefully we win more than we lose.  GL tonight
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Nice to see you on the TEX-RAG too but a little bummed to see you backing AJ "Another Joint" Burnett and the YANKS.

Glad to see you're still rolling right along in the postseason hope you stay hot man. And thanx for all the hard work buddy . With you,my other footy buddy and a personal heater this has been one of the better stretches of my "career" lolol. I had a nice 3-1 +2.8 day on the bases yesterday and killed the Monday Nighter going 4-0-1 +8.95 units which brought the run to 7 of 8 days in +$ and +41.1 units since last Monday. I couldn't do it without ya man so thanx for the time,effort and like somebody said the other day which often goes un-looked,the willingness to share and teach us.

Stay Hot buddy it's well deserved

wow...+41 units since last Monday?  That's awesome. 
Great stuff
 
 
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