Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +.98 Units
Tue 10/04
#1: Texas Rangers +102
I've faded Hellickson in his last start and even though he won that one, I promised myself that I'm going right back to fading him next time he's on the mound. Well, that time is today. Speaking of that 'last time', it was a game against the Yankees which Tampa won 5-3 when they came back from a 3-2 deficit late in the game. Looking at that game, Hellickson gave up 6 hits in 6 innings of work with 1 HR, 5 walks, and only 1 K. Surprisingly he only allowed 3 ER's. He got out of 2 bases-loaded situations, one of which was a triple play. He also had a couple of double-plays that ended an inning and minimized some 'damage' in the other (1 run scored when Yankees had men on 1st and 3rd with zero outs). Frankly, Hellickson got very LUCKY. It's one thing to have dynamic stuff to be able to 'get out of jams' (e.g. Verlander, Halladay) and it's another one having luck on your side. Hellickson has a measly 1.63 K/BB, 4.44 FIP (#165 in the league) and 4.72 xFIP (#206 in the league). At the same time he has a terrible 35% GB-rate. With all these factors how in the world is his ERA below 3? Well, the 'unfamiliarity' angle is one factor, as he was a rookie this year, facing teams for the first time. But a better explanation is his .223 BABIP (13th lowest out of all starting pitchers) and 82% strand-rate (league average is 70%). Bottom line is that it's safe to expect some major regression to the mean here. He does NOT deserve to have an ERA below 3.0 and there's some excellent 'value' in fading him. In addition, his 5.33 xFIP in September with a 0.69 K/BB rate (2.94 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9 -- WOW!) is another huge 'warning' sign. You won't see it just by looking at his 'mainstream' stats where Hellickson has a 2.67 ERA with a 2-0 record and .172 BA for the month. Once again the .158 BABIP and 86% strand-rate came into play here. Well I see his luck running out tonight against another potent offensive squad like the Rangers. And even if he continues to have 'luck' on his side, Rangers have the better starter on the mound, better offense, and a better bullpen. I see this series ending today.
#2: New York Yankees -104
I know everyone likes to 'hate' on AJ Burnett. He does have a 5.15 ERA on the season with 31 HR's allowed and a 11-11 record. But looking into his numbers a little deeper, one could see that Burnett hasn't been as bad as his #'s show. He pitches in a 'hitter's park' so his FIP should be naturally inflated but when you take into account league-average HR/rate, his xFIP of 3.86 is pretty decent. Actually, it's the lowest it's been in the past 3 seasons. Burnett's K/9 came in at 8.18, improvement from 6.99 last year. His BB/9 stayed pretty much the same, while his GB-rate improved from 42% in '09, to 45% in '10, to 49% this year. Part of the reason his ERA is so high is his 17% HR/FB rate, which is way higher than his 11.3% career average. Why are these factors important? Well, in a big ballpark like Comerica, it's harder to hit homeruns and the fact that Burnett is able to induce an almost 50% ground-ball rate is a significant factor as well. I know this is also a 'factor' for Porcello's success who has a 51% GB-rate this year. But Porcello's xFIP of 4.02 is higher and his 5.14 K/9 is lower than Burnett's. To me, Porcello is a worse pitcher of the two and I love backing 'better' starting pitchers in the post-season. (Heck, during the regular season as well!) Comparing the last month of the season between the two, Porcello had a 3.84 xFIP in September with a very mediocre 1.60 K/BB rate. Burnett had a stellar month, with a slick 2.76 xFIP (his lowest by far this season...next lowest was 3.84 in July) and 3.27 K/BB. His 11.05 K/9 rate was the highest of the year as he was in a very nice groove to end the season. Finally, let's take a look at each pitcher's last 2 starts against their opponent tonight:
Burnett against Detroit: 12 innings / 8 hits / 5 ER's / 1 HR / 11 K's to 2 BB's
Porcello against Yankees: 13 innings / 14 hits / 8 ER's / 0 HR / 5 K's to 5 BB's
I think I've made the case why Burnett is the better pitcher on the mound in this matchup.
I'll also make the case why the Yankees have an advantage in the bullpen and it's very simple: Jose Valverde. It's only a matter of time before he blows a save. I don't care about his perfect 'save ratio' so far this year, as he's a terrible closer IMO. The guy has a 4.23 BB/9 ratio, 4.01 xFIP, and a .247 BABIP rate. He's already issued 4 walks, gave up 2 hits and 1 HR in his last 2 innings in this series. Martin hit one pretty well off him yesterday only to be caught at a warning track (I thought he was going to tie the game with that hit). I know that Valverde has thrown a ton of pitches last 2 games and I'm not sure if he'd be used in a potential 'save' situation today, but I sure hope so. (Obviously hopefully it won't get to it, as Yankees would have a 5-run lead going into the 9th ) I like the other arms in this Tigers bullpen and overall this unit has been performing very well in the last month or so. But if it's Valverde against the Bombers in a 1-run game in the 9th, I wouldn't feel hopeless at all.
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +.98 Units
Tue 10/04
#1: Texas Rangers +102
I've faded Hellickson in his last start and even though he won that one, I promised myself that I'm going right back to fading him next time he's on the mound. Well, that time is today. Speaking of that 'last time', it was a game against the Yankees which Tampa won 5-3 when they came back from a 3-2 deficit late in the game. Looking at that game, Hellickson gave up 6 hits in 6 innings of work with 1 HR, 5 walks, and only 1 K. Surprisingly he only allowed 3 ER's. He got out of 2 bases-loaded situations, one of which was a triple play. He also had a couple of double-plays that ended an inning and minimized some 'damage' in the other (1 run scored when Yankees had men on 1st and 3rd with zero outs). Frankly, Hellickson got very LUCKY. It's one thing to have dynamic stuff to be able to 'get out of jams' (e.g. Verlander, Halladay) and it's another one having luck on your side. Hellickson has a measly 1.63 K/BB, 4.44 FIP (#165 in the league) and 4.72 xFIP (#206 in the league). At the same time he has a terrible 35% GB-rate. With all these factors how in the world is his ERA below 3? Well, the 'unfamiliarity' angle is one factor, as he was a rookie this year, facing teams for the first time. But a better explanation is his .223 BABIP (13th lowest out of all starting pitchers) and 82% strand-rate (league average is 70%). Bottom line is that it's safe to expect some major regression to the mean here. He does NOT deserve to have an ERA below 3.0 and there's some excellent 'value' in fading him. In addition, his 5.33 xFIP in September with a 0.69 K/BB rate (2.94 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9 -- WOW!) is another huge 'warning' sign. You won't see it just by looking at his 'mainstream' stats where Hellickson has a 2.67 ERA with a 2-0 record and .172 BA for the month. Once again the .158 BABIP and 86% strand-rate came into play here. Well I see his luck running out tonight against another potent offensive squad like the Rangers. And even if he continues to have 'luck' on his side, Rangers have the better starter on the mound, better offense, and a better bullpen. I see this series ending today.
#2: New York Yankees -104
I know everyone likes to 'hate' on AJ Burnett. He does have a 5.15 ERA on the season with 31 HR's allowed and a 11-11 record. But looking into his numbers a little deeper, one could see that Burnett hasn't been as bad as his #'s show. He pitches in a 'hitter's park' so his FIP should be naturally inflated but when you take into account league-average HR/rate, his xFIP of 3.86 is pretty decent. Actually, it's the lowest it's been in the past 3 seasons. Burnett's K/9 came in at 8.18, improvement from 6.99 last year. His BB/9 stayed pretty much the same, while his GB-rate improved from 42% in '09, to 45% in '10, to 49% this year. Part of the reason his ERA is so high is his 17% HR/FB rate, which is way higher than his 11.3% career average. Why are these factors important? Well, in a big ballpark like Comerica, it's harder to hit homeruns and the fact that Burnett is able to induce an almost 50% ground-ball rate is a significant factor as well. I know this is also a 'factor' for Porcello's success who has a 51% GB-rate this year. But Porcello's xFIP of 4.02 is higher and his 5.14 K/9 is lower than Burnett's. To me, Porcello is a worse pitcher of the two and I love backing 'better' starting pitchers in the post-season. (Heck, during the regular season as well!) Comparing the last month of the season between the two, Porcello had a 3.84 xFIP in September with a very mediocre 1.60 K/BB rate. Burnett had a stellar month, with a slick 2.76 xFIP (his lowest by far this season...next lowest was 3.84 in July) and 3.27 K/BB. His 11.05 K/9 rate was the highest of the year as he was in a very nice groove to end the season. Finally, let's take a look at each pitcher's last 2 starts against their opponent tonight:
Burnett against Detroit: 12 innings / 8 hits / 5 ER's / 1 HR / 11 K's to 2 BB's
Porcello against Yankees: 13 innings / 14 hits / 8 ER's / 0 HR / 5 K's to 5 BB's
I think I've made the case why Burnett is the better pitcher on the mound in this matchup.
I'll also make the case why the Yankees have an advantage in the bullpen and it's very simple: Jose Valverde. It's only a matter of time before he blows a save. I don't care about his perfect 'save ratio' so far this year, as he's a terrible closer IMO. The guy has a 4.23 BB/9 ratio, 4.01 xFIP, and a .247 BABIP rate. He's already issued 4 walks, gave up 2 hits and 1 HR in his last 2 innings in this series. Martin hit one pretty well off him yesterday only to be caught at a warning track (I thought he was going to tie the game with that hit). I know that Valverde has thrown a ton of pitches last 2 games and I'm not sure if he'd be used in a potential 'save' situation today, but I sure hope so. (Obviously hopefully it won't get to it, as Yankees would have a 5-run lead going into the 9th ) I like the other arms in this Tigers bullpen and overall this unit has been performing very well in the last month or so. But if it's Valverde against the Bombers in a 1-run game in the 9th, I wouldn't feel hopeless at all.
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