I hit my -320 Birmingham ML (which was silly in retrospect) and under live bet under 24.5 just barely. I only watched the 4th quarter and was entertained but the quality of play still needs some improving. If what we get by the end of the year is a game that resembles high-level college play then I'm all in as a fan. Most importantly, the players seem into it.
I expect Arizona to handle Memphis pretty easily, but -16 is a lot of points to lay and -650 is a crazy juice on the ML. I think I'll wait to see if I can get a better price in game or an Arizona team total prop. I expect Arizona to put up points but the question will be if Memphis can get a few scores.
I think both games go under and both favorites cover today. My thoughts on Atlanta at San Diego are up on a thread I made but I'm predicting 20-9.
I don't really understand the late money push on San Antonio down to +4.5, but for that game I think the advantages for each side are:
Orlando
Coaching staff - Steve Spurrier is a better head coach than Mike Riley, and he has 10 years experience coaching with his DC and offensive line coach from their days at Florida. I don't see the same continuity with Mike Riley's staff.
QB - Gilbert had a better week 1 and is more experienced, more mobile than Woodside.
RB - Hunt is better than Farrow, back up RBs are a push.
WR - Orlando probably has the best WR core in the league.
OL - Orlando has better yards per carry average and has given up far less sacks and QB hits.
Field - Climate controlled stadium and turf field are an advantage to the better offensive team.
San Antonio
Defense - I give San Antonio an edge here, as their defense held San Diego to considerably less yards, first downs, and points than Orlando did in the preseason game. Both defenses held Atlanta to similar yards per play and points allowed.
Crowd noise - San Antonio did have the best attendance in week 1, around 29,000, and with Steve Spurrier being the biggest name/draw in the league, I would expect a large crowd and a lot of noise in the dome. It probably doesn't compare to a place like New Orleans in the NFL but it will be a factor.
Travel - San Antonio is somehow sitting at home for the 3rd straight week including the preseason, while Orlando has had to travel to San Diego for the preseason, then back home, then to San Antonio. I don't know if it is a huge concern this early in the season, but it has to count for something.
Overall - I don't think San Antonio is a bad team, and they are at home, but without weather playing a factor, I look for Spurrier's Fun n Gun offense to have more success than any of the offenses did yesterday. I don't think you can overlook advantages at the coaching staff, QB, skill positions and offensive line.
Prediction - Orlando 26, San Antonio 17
Also I went down the 52 man rosters for any insights:
San Antonio has 29 players who have been in an NFL training camp or practice squad.
San Antonio has 14 players who have made an NFL 53 man roster and played in a regular season game.
Orlando has 29 players who have been in an NFL training camp or practice squad.
Orlando has 21 players who have made an NFL 53 man roster and played in a regular season game.
Orlando has a bit of a regional advantage with all of those fast Florida guys to draw from.
Interested to see how it plays out but my money is on Orlando.
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