I don't know why I'm seeing what I am seeing here, but I am biting. The Crows are the better side here and getting points. The Cats are usually hardened up at Skilled, but they haven't been tested there yet this season. The Crows are rolling and travel well.
Adelaide +7.5
Geelong v. Adelaide
I don't know why I'm seeing what I am seeing here, but I am biting. The Crows are the better side here and getting points. The Cats are usually hardened up at Skilled, but they haven't been tested there yet this season. The Crows are rolling and travel well.
While I am very tempted by the 44.5 head start in this one, North has shown that they can hammer teams when they are on....teams much better than the Demons. All things are pointing to a blow-out Roos win here, but Melbourne has shown some mettle on certain weeks. Hard to figure how these two teams come out.
No play.
North Melbourne v. Melbourne
While I am very tempted by the 44.5 head start in this one, North has shown that they can hammer teams when they are on....teams much better than the Demons. All things are pointing to a blow-out Roos win here, but Melbourne has shown some mettle on certain weeks. Hard to figure how these two teams come out.
This one sets up nicely. Collingwood is in the hunt for the premier ladder position. So is Sydney. That means percentage plays a big part. Oh lookie, lookie.......Sydney just happens to be playing Gold Coast this round, a percentage booster. This is wonderful timing for the punters. Collingwood realizes all of this. They also know that Hawthorn smashed GWS and already got their spoils.
Collingwood knows what they have to do. This line is a slight joke, but any higher and it would be ridiculous.
GWS has not shown that they can keep matches close and that a 91-point margin is something the Pies are very much able to attain if they want to.
They want to.
Collingwood -90.5
Collingwood v. GWS
This one sets up nicely. Collingwood is in the hunt for the premier ladder position. So is Sydney. That means percentage plays a big part. Oh lookie, lookie.......Sydney just happens to be playing Gold Coast this round, a percentage booster. This is wonderful timing for the punters. Collingwood realizes all of this. They also know that Hawthorn smashed GWS and already got their spoils.
Collingwood knows what they have to do. This line is a slight joke, but any higher and it would be ridiculous.
GWS has not shown that they can keep matches close and that a 91-point margin is something the Pies are very much able to attain if they want to.
Here is a doozy. Two teams trying to figure out who they are. Good, bad, something else?
For this match we need to think back to the Round 16 clash between the Blues and the Roos. The Roos were 5.5-point dogs and the Blues were highly expected to make some waves. They got smashed. I loved North in that one because of how they play and their mental attitude as a side. The fact that North's playstyle is kryptonite to the Blues.
Enter Richmond.
The Tigers play the same kind of footy that North does. Controlled, paced, chippy, and with many more handballs than Carlton can be bothered with. Hell, look at the Richmond v. North match last round!!! Crazy, right?
But in this round, it is Carlton getting the points. And Richmond isn't as solid as the Roos.
So.....what do we do?
I don't like the line in this one. So let's look for better value. This match will not be a blow-out. I am going to take both 1-24 margins here, with an end profit if it stays within four goals. I reckon it will, especially considering the style Richmond plays and how it should stymie any of Carlton's free-flowing possibilities.
Richmond 1-24 $3.50
Carlton 1-24 $3.20
Carlton v. Richmond
Here is a doozy. Two teams trying to figure out who they are. Good, bad, something else?
For this match we need to think back to the Round 16 clash between the Blues and the Roos. The Roos were 5.5-point dogs and the Blues were highly expected to make some waves. They got smashed. I loved North in that one because of how they play and their mental attitude as a side. The fact that North's playstyle is kryptonite to the Blues.
Enter Richmond.
The Tigers play the same kind of footy that North does. Controlled, paced, chippy, and with many more handballs than Carlton can be bothered with. Hell, look at the Richmond v. North match last round!!! Crazy, right?
But in this round, it is Carlton getting the points. And Richmond isn't as solid as the Roos.
So.....what do we do?
I don't like the line in this one. So let's look for better value. This match will not be a blow-out. I am going to take both 1-24 margins here, with an end profit if it stays within four goals. I reckon it will, especially considering the style Richmond plays and how it should stymie any of Carlton's free-flowing possibilities.
Well, here are my Swans! Ready to get another win on the ladder and keep pace with Collingwood and the rest of the wanna-bes.
However, I don't like this match from a betting stand-point. Everyone and their mother and father will be on the Swans. The books know that, the Swans know that, the Prime Minister knows that.
The line knows that.
The Suns play well at MS, but they also play the same stuffy, close-in biffball the Swans love and others love to hate. This leads to possible low-scoring slugfests and margins of victory in Swans games that are lower than one might expect.
This is the reason why I backed Gold Coast to beat Richmond outright a few rounds ago. I didn't reckon the Tigers could handle this close-in biffball and they didn't, especially on the final Suns possession which was pure brilliance.
Therefore, I will not be tempting fate on the inflated -50.5. Yes, I said inflated.
Instead, I will be looking at these better markets.
Team to Score First Goal - Swans $1.65 (1/4th)
Lewis Jetta - More Goals Than Behinds - $1.64(3/4th)
Swans should get the first goal in this game, although their typical slow starts is a bit of a worry.
Jetta to get more goals is the sure winner here. His speed will gives the Suns fits, and think second half when the players have worn down and the Suns are falling away, Jetta will get some pure gimmes. Jetta is apt to fire at goal from anywhere, but his targeting is either goal or out on the full.
I am taking a normal-sized wager and splitting it 25/75 as you see above.
Sydney v. Gold Coast
Well, here are my Swans! Ready to get another win on the ladder and keep pace with Collingwood and the rest of the wanna-bes.
However, I don't like this match from a betting stand-point. Everyone and their mother and father will be on the Swans. The books know that, the Swans know that, the Prime Minister knows that.
The line knows that.
The Suns play well at MS, but they also play the same stuffy, close-in biffball the Swans love and others love to hate. This leads to possible low-scoring slugfests and margins of victory in Swans games that are lower than one might expect.
This is the reason why I backed Gold Coast to beat Richmond outright a few rounds ago. I didn't reckon the Tigers could handle this close-in biffball and they didn't, especially on the final Suns possession which was pure brilliance.
Therefore, I will not be tempting fate on the inflated -50.5. Yes, I said inflated.
Instead, I will be looking at these better markets.
Team to Score First Goal - Swans $1.65 (1/4th)
Lewis Jetta - More Goals Than Behinds - $1.64(3/4th)
Swans should get the first goal in this game, although their typical slow starts is a bit of a worry.
Jetta to get more goals is the sure winner here. His speed will gives the Suns fits, and think second half when the players have worn down and the Suns are falling away, Jetta will get some pure gimmes. Jetta is apt to fire at goal from anywhere, but his targeting is either goal or out on the full.
I am taking a normal-sized wager and splitting it 25/75 as you see above.
Agree with all so far, North line has moved too far, might have a look at North TT or fuck it I might even have a shot on North -59.5.
What's your favourite bourbon HoH?
I'm on the makers mark and dry
kicking back at 4:30 am, digi jazz radio, watchin the cards @ cubs
Hey buddy!
Sorry I didn't get back right away. I actually ran out quickly after posting these. Went to the Michigan Craft Beerfest. 500 craft beers on tap. You woulda fainted. Hahaha. I was on a designated driver ticket though.
Felt like being a eunuch in a whorehouse.
Hahaha....
At any rate, favorite bourbon is hands-down Evan Williams. Very flavorful, not musky or charcoal-ly, a bit spicy, and smooth, very smooth. Cheap too. $13 a bottle here. Don't let the price fool you. It's America's (hence, the world's) oldest bourbon. Delicious.
Favorite Scotch is Jameson.
Bullett Rye Whisky is out-of-this-world if you can get it down in Oz. Smooth as shit, little to no burn, and all taste. Anyone who has tried it is blown over.
Quote Originally Posted by Django:
Agree with all so far, North line has moved too far, might have a look at North TT or fuck it I might even have a shot on North -59.5.
What's your favourite bourbon HoH?
I'm on the makers mark and dry
kicking back at 4:30 am, digi jazz radio, watchin the cards @ cubs
Hey buddy!
Sorry I didn't get back right away. I actually ran out quickly after posting these. Went to the Michigan Craft Beerfest. 500 craft beers on tap. You woulda fainted. Hahaha. I was on a designated driver ticket though.
Felt like being a eunuch in a whorehouse.
Hahaha....
At any rate, favorite bourbon is hands-down Evan Williams. Very flavorful, not musky or charcoal-ly, a bit spicy, and smooth, very smooth. Cheap too. $13 a bottle here. Don't let the price fool you. It's America's (hence, the world's) oldest bourbon. Delicious.
Favorite Scotch is Jameson.
Bullett Rye Whisky is out-of-this-world if you can get it down in Oz. Smooth as shit, little to no burn, and all taste. Anyone who has tried it is blown over.
Do they have any fight left in them for a comeback? Or is bloody Geelong at Skilled too damn much for them?
If Adelaide is truly a contender, they come back in this one. Could be that Geelong is too experienced with their veteran talent (congrats to Corey) and add that in at Fortress Skilled.....might have been too much for the Crows.
Crows are good, but not tempered, haven't been put through the flames yet.
We'll see, still plenty of ball left.
Crows down by a decent margin early.
Do they have any fight left in them for a comeback? Or is bloody Geelong at Skilled too damn much for them?
If Adelaide is truly a contender, they come back in this one. Could be that Geelong is too experienced with their veteran talent (congrats to Corey) and add that in at Fortress Skilled.....might have been too much for the Crows.
Crows are good, but not tempered, haven't been put through the flames yet.
Team to Score First Goal - Swans $1.65 (1/4th) Lewis Jetta - More Goals Than Behinds - $1.64(3/4th)
Well, Adelaide cuts the margin from 33 to two solitary behind with 15 minutes to go on Porpoise's goal. Then what happens? They spend the next eight straight minutes unable to get the ball past the midway line.
Proof positive that Adelaide's ladder position is fluff. They are good, but not a finals-built team. Geelong's veterans took over when the Crows got to within 2 and made them look childish. Adelaide +7.5 was a good punt but their relative inexperience and Skilled's armor got the better of them.
Good to remember as we move forward from here on out.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Round 18
Adelaide +7.5
Collingwood -90.5
Richmond 1-24 $3.50 Carlton 1-24 $3.20
Team to Score First Goal - Swans $1.65 (1/4th) Lewis Jetta - More Goals Than Behinds - $1.64(3/4th)
Well, Adelaide cuts the margin from 33 to two solitary behind with 15 minutes to go on Porpoise's goal. Then what happens? They spend the next eight straight minutes unable to get the ball past the midway line.
Proof positive that Adelaide's ladder position is fluff. They are good, but not a finals-built team. Geelong's veterans took over when the Crows got to within 2 and made them look childish. Adelaide +7.5 was a good punt but their relative inexperience and Skilled's armor got the better of them.
Good to remember as we move forward from here on out.
This one is going to be easy to over-think and way too easy to get on. The Dockers season recap is rather simple. They have lost to the dominant teams or once-dominant at the time of the loss. They have beaten, and sometimes soundly, those sides they were expected too.
As for the Power. The winds of September can't come soon enough for them. So they can be blown right into their living rooms with a packet of crisps and a few tins of bitter.
While backing a fringe team like the Dockers can sometimes be a dubious affair, I backed them solidly in Round 16 to good effect and they have not demonstrated once this season of under-performing in a situation in which they should be dominant.
The Dockers kick the ball around the ground much more often that the Power, yet, they still manage to out- handball them as well.
This should translate into better situational ball movement on the day, especially seeing than Port Adelaide is rubbish in the marking department.
The only downside is that Fremantle is not entirely an accurate side when it comes to spotting for goal, which could nullify the movement and marking advantage they are sure to have versus Port.
Still, the Dockers have yet to become the Shockers this season and that is a trend to bank on.
Fremantle -10.5
Fremantle v. Port Adelaide
This one is going to be easy to over-think and way too easy to get on. The Dockers season recap is rather simple. They have lost to the dominant teams or once-dominant at the time of the loss. They have beaten, and sometimes soundly, those sides they were expected too.
As for the Power. The winds of September can't come soon enough for them. So they can be blown right into their living rooms with a packet of crisps and a few tins of bitter.
While backing a fringe team like the Dockers can sometimes be a dubious affair, I backed them solidly in Round 16 to good effect and they have not demonstrated once this season of under-performing in a situation in which they should be dominant.
The Dockers kick the ball around the ground much more often that the Power, yet, they still manage to out- handball them as well.
This should translate into better situational ball movement on the day, especially seeing than Port Adelaide is rubbish in the marking department.
The only downside is that Fremantle is not entirely an accurate side when it comes to spotting for goal, which could nullify the movement and marking advantage they are sure to have versus Port.
Still, the Dockers have yet to become the Shockers this season and that is a trend to bank on.
I'm to blame for the jinx I reckon. I told the Crows in the 2nd Quarter that I shall not be gracing them with my presence until they get their shit together. I then wagged my finger violently and left the room. I came back in the room in the 4th when they pulled back to 8 and then Porpo hit that goal to draw down to 2.
And then they collapsed.
The bastards suck me back into the living room only to tease me and laugh in my face!
Quote Originally Posted by Luckylunchbox:
Blame rod he jinxed it
"Wet sail," eh Steel?
....
I'm to blame for the jinx I reckon. I told the Crows in the 2nd Quarter that I shall not be gracing them with my presence until they get their shit together. I then wagged my finger violently and left the room. I came back in the room in the 4th when they pulled back to 8 and then Porpo hit that goal to draw down to 2.
And then they collapsed.
The bastards suck me back into the living room only to tease me and laugh in my face!
The line is 34.5. Just a line to scare everyone away. It's a little too much to jump on with reckless abandon. And nowhere near enough to take packaged up with the Bulldogs.
St. Kilda ravaged them in Round Three and have played pretty solidly at home at Etihad.
The Bulldogs haven't played solidly for half their games. And didn't show up for the other half.
So what is there to make of this line? While every fibre in every bone says get on the Saints, I am not so sure. As I said, the WB are rubbish, complete rubbish.....so then why not back the Saints here confidently?
St. Kilda have been very up-and-down this season and not consistent at all....the anti-Fremantle, if you will. Exactly because of that, I don't like to back for or against them very often. But it is tempting when you know exactly what you're gonna get from the Bulldogs on any given day: complete shyte.
No play.
St. Kilda v. Wanton Bulldykes
The Bulldogs are garbage.
The line is 34.5. Just a line to scare everyone away. It's a little too much to jump on with reckless abandon. And nowhere near enough to take packaged up with the Bulldogs.
St. Kilda ravaged them in Round Three and have played pretty solidly at home at Etihad.
The Bulldogs haven't played solidly for half their games. And didn't show up for the other half.
So what is there to make of this line? While every fibre in every bone says get on the Saints, I am not so sure. As I said, the WB are rubbish, complete rubbish.....so then why not back the Saints here confidently?
St. Kilda have been very up-and-down this season and not consistent at all....the anti-Fremantle, if you will. Exactly because of that, I don't like to back for or against them very often. But it is tempting when you know exactly what you're gonna get from the Bulldogs on any given day: complete shyte.
Another line in the 30's here with this one, with the Eagles giving up 35.5 at the start. Lines in the 30's are the worst in AFL and this one proves no different.
Brisbane beat the Eagles earlier in the season and West Coast has been in awful form lately because of a lengthy injury list. So far, this round has been a round for the favorites and this match looks again to hold that developing trend. West Coast are excellent at getting the ball out of the pack and to their forwards, something Brisbane has struggled with this season. Gold Coast gave the Lions a scare last round because of this.
Are West Coast recovered enough with the returning of an iffy-Hill and Shuey? Will the shocking deterioration of the past few weeks and the realization of an impending final deadline be enough to propel the Eagles strongly from the start to blow away the Lions?
Or, will the Lions still have enough tricks up their sleeves to keep this one within reach?
I really should stay off this match entirely, but I am going to get a little sneaky here with a combo wager that I feel is excellent value. Of course if one wins, the other will lose (see Richmond v. Carlton bet), but will still cash in nicely. West Coast 20-39 $4.25
West Coast 40-59 $4.00
West Coast v. Brisbane
Another line in the 30's here with this one, with the Eagles giving up 35.5 at the start. Lines in the 30's are the worst in AFL and this one proves no different.
Brisbane beat the Eagles earlier in the season and West Coast has been in awful form lately because of a lengthy injury list. So far, this round has been a round for the favorites and this match looks again to hold that developing trend. West Coast are excellent at getting the ball out of the pack and to their forwards, something Brisbane has struggled with this season. Gold Coast gave the Lions a scare last round because of this.
Are West Coast recovered enough with the returning of an iffy-Hill and Shuey? Will the shocking deterioration of the past few weeks and the realization of an impending final deadline be enough to propel the Eagles strongly from the start to blow away the Lions?
Or, will the Lions still have enough tricks up their sleeves to keep this one within reach?
I really should stay off this match entirely, but I am going to get a little sneaky here with a combo wager that I feel is excellent value. Of course if one wins, the other will lose (see Richmond v. Carlton bet), but will still cash in nicely. West Coast 20-39 $4.25
While I am very tempted by the 44.5 head start in this one, North has shown that they can hammer teams when they are on....teams much better than the Demons. All things are pointing to a blow-out Roos win here, but Melbourne has shown some mettle on certain weeks. Hard to figure how these two teams come out.
No play.
North wins by 44.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
North Melbourne v. Melbourne
While I am very tempted by the 44.5 head start in this one, North has shown that they can hammer teams when they are on....teams much better than the Demons. All things are pointing to a blow-out Roos win here, but Melbourne has shown some mettle on certain weeks. Hard to figure how these two teams come out.
But we'll see if we can pluck a couple winners yet.
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