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Rod's NBL Round 15

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Posted: #1
Round 14 (5-3-0) +4.35 units
 
Overall YTD (59-43-0) +45.27 units
 
Well I'm still in the States which sucks as I was hoping to be in Australia. Merry Christmas to you guys though I guess its Boxing day over there now.
 
I've read a bit of print media about this game and for the nth time I read that Hammer is lamenting about how poorly his team has been performing this season. I also read that he is thinking of changing up his lineup. Initially I was thinking I'll pass but then it occurred to me - this is a big game on the NBL calendar, may be a sell out and the Dragons simply can not play any defense.
 
o209.5 Dragons v Sixers (5)
 
In terms of side this is a bit more of a gut feel but I think even though it is the Sixers who needs this more for their playoff aspirations, the Dragons pull this one out tonight. they've been competitive for halves of games in a lot of the recent games but seemingly go AWOL. With it being Boxing Day at home it should provide them with enough motivation to perform well even though their season is done.
 
Dragons +1.5 over Sixers (3)
 
 
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Posted: #2
Merry Xmas, Rod.
 
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Posted: #3
wow looks like a steam move on the Sixers late, centrebet now has the line at +3
 
Adding more:-
 
Dragons +3 over Sixers (4)
 
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I agree with your over Rod, GL.
 
It ended up being a close match last time and the Dragons then were on B2B and the 3rd game in 4 nights. So with fresh legs I expect them to put in a good 4 quarter effort tonight. But on history and since Maher now has fitness and them playing much better I'm finding it hard to back the Dragons. I hope you cash!!!
 
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Posted: #5

o209.5 Dragons v Sixers =

Dragons +1.5/+3 =

 
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I always like to look for a reason to pick the dog but I'm struggling with this matchup. Tipans are basically outmatched in every key position including and with DT back tonight the Tigers are the healthiest they have been since mid October. Coming off a loss against Brisbane they have a chance to get back #2 spot on the ladder tonight and against a terrible road team that has struggled to put up points all season I'm prepared to lay the points in this one:

Tigers -9.5 over Taipans (5)

 
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Posted: #7
Tigers -9.5 =
 
Beaten by the hook on the back of a couple of garbage FT's at the end of the game. Back later.
 
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Posted: #8

Locked in a couple for Friday night

Crocs -4.5 over Hawks (5)

u200.5 Hawks v Crocs (3)

 
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Posted: #9
GL Rod man...I see you got moosed the other night (I missed the game due to family catch-up time), that type of shit just pisses me off, and I'm sure it does for you!!!
 
Will tail the above two, hopefully they hit. 
 
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Pigs playing the Bullets tonight is an interesting game in that it has the potential to be much closer than what the line suggests. Main reason is the brutal schedule handed to the Bullets over the next 4 days. After playing tonight, they go up to Brisbane to play the Blaze tomorrow which bound to be a physical contest and then have to play the Taipans in Cairns on Monday. 3 games in 4 days is an anomoly in the NBL and I can really see Wright being smart about tonight with respect to using his players. Pigs on the other hand next play on the 5th January.
 
I'm expecting him to use Ere and Bruton as little as possible given the team's heavy schedule over the next few days, further beating up on the Pigs really is not going to prove anything especially when they no doubt have been eyeing up the derby game tomorrow but especially the Monday game against the Taipans as it presents a huge revenge spot for them giving they were humiliated by the Taipans in round 6 by 22 points.
 
Razorbacks +8.5 over Bullets (5)
 
I'm also going to add a couple more units on the Crocs at the higher line for tonight. A crocs win will get them into the top 4, acts as plenty of incentive to go hard tonight even if it is against an undermanned Hawks team.
 
Crocs -5.5 over Hawks (3)
 
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Posted: #11
On the Crocs as well tonight mate
 
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Posted: #12
The Crocs will not see the lead again.......
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Cannon88:

The Crocs will not see the lead again.......

Calm down Cannon, they are down by 9 and the game is only half way through..........Crocs still in the hunt  

 
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Posted: #14
 An Ez (basically) wire to wire win for the Hawks......I fucking knew it.........oh well.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Cannon88:

 An Ez (basically) wire to wire win for the Hawks......I fucking knew it.........oh well.

With all due respect Cannon, if you knew that the Hawks would win easily, wire to wire, why on earth would you bet the Crocs?

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

With all due respect Cannon, if you knew that the Hawks would win easily, wire to wire, why on earth would you bet the Crocs?

Well - First off, I respect the handicappers here....but when a line has very little movement when "most" of the gamblers are on it...then it usually spells disaster. That's what I meant by..."I knew it".....Gambling 101

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Cannon88:

Well - First off, I respect the handicappers here....but when a line has very little movement when "most" of the gamblers are on it...then it usually spells disaster. That's what I meant by..."I knew it".....Gambling 101

Yep, been there and done that.....I have been burned real bad the last week or so by plays that looked so easy you'd have to be a dickhead to play them. However, I think the fact that Kavossy played tonight may have messed with a couple of cappers logic......get em tomorrow

 
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Posted: #18

How can you say the line didn't move???

It started at -3 and moved to -6

 
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 I just hate having money on a game....and five minutes later....you knew it was the wrong play......it never had a chance. I know you can get crazy swings in this league, but I never felt the Crocs had a chance....even when they closed it to one....live and learn.
 
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Posted: #20
hindsight is a beautiful thing
 
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Posted: #21
Hey Tozer, hows things mate?
 
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Yes it is.....it's worth a fortune, I'd say....
 
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Posted: #23

Hey AB, things are good.

At least the under cashed but I had a decent amount on the crocs.

Haven't seen your posts this week? I hope to see some picks coming up

 
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Posted: #24
 Since I'm a nice guy... - I'll give you guys an ACTUAL winner. If your book has it....World Junior Under 20 Hockey - the USA/Swiss UNDER 6.5.....I know I sound "whiney" but it's 3:45 AM here in Calgary.....I should be...
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

Hey AB, things are good.

At least the under cashed but I had a decent amount on the crocs.

Haven't seen your posts this week? I hope to see some picks coming up

Yeah Tozer, took the week off to spend some quality time with the family. Not to mention I had a horror run in the NBA and lost a large chunk of my bankroll 

Back now and freshened up, keen for some A-League, local hoops and hanging out for the start of the NRL season

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