NBL Round 4 - Bolar Style

YTD:

Round 1: +17.5
Round 2: +10.04
Round 3: +33.13

Total: +60.67

SEP

Round 1: +13.5
Round 2: -3.6
Round 3: -3.6

Total: +6.3

Under to over ratio: 9-6

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Townsville v Perth

Regular season plays are first, then the experimental play is the last pick.

4 units First Half over 81.5 @ $1.90

3 units Under 163.5 @ $1.90

Adding

4 units Perth +2 @ $1.90
2 units Perth @ $2.10

GL

Sorry, that's 5 units Perth +2

10 units Under 177.5 @ $1.83

See you at the bank, fellas

+18.6 units

For the experiment play, -3 units.
4.2
9.5

Unless the books adjust and put totals in the 170's, I might have to call an end to the experiment plays until books adjust or it will be -20 in no time.

Another NBL game has gone over.Thats what.......6 in a row?

 

Yeah, as I say. I will be backing overs I think if the totals remain this low. If not, I will definitely call an end to the experiment momentarily.

Books really should have every game tomorrow as 170.5-174.5

But once they do that, and have the totals in the 170's, these players won't be able to shoot a 3 to save themselves

What I basically mean is:

Put it this way. As soon as the books adjust, and put totals in the low 170's, these guys suddenly won't be able to shoot 3's and the games will fly under. The books will then readjust to the 150's, early 160's, and then the 3's will rain down again.

It's the 3 point shooting that is helping the overs lately. There are still plenty of bricks thrown down.

Totals tomorrow:

Sportingbet:

Blaze v Breakers - 167.5
36ers v Kings - 161.5

Centrebet

Blaze v Breakers - 169.5
36ers v Kings - 161.5

Bet365

Blaze v Breakers - 173.5
36ers v Kings - 159.5

Should take the overs on Sportingbet this early before everyone hammers it and they adjust the line.

Okay:

5 units Sydney +4 @ $1.90

I've seen the 36ers. They are pathetic. They are a team which doesn't have the firepower to go well this year. The Kings on the otherhand love being the underdogs. They should keep Adelaide tight tonight and it wouldn't surprise me if they win. The +4 is a better option because if Adelaide win, I can't see them doing it more than 4 points against a tough side.

6 units Perth @ $1.90

Back to back doesn't phase me. Cairns haven't found their range yet. Perth are starting to get things clicking. They will force Cairns into missing a lot of hoops, then will rebound and score on nearly every rebound.

6 units New Zealand @ $1.80

Gold Coast are banged up injury wise. New Zealand are full strength. If the Kiwis want to be touted as the real deal this season, they need to win these away games. They should have too much class for Gold Coast here. The first quarter is the key in this match. Gold Coast are slow starters. If New Zealand can get to a big lead early, they won't be letting GC back into the match.

6 units Gold Coast v New Zealand - Over 168.5 @ $1.90

I may regret taking an over here, but let's put things into perspective. Gold Coast are 3 point magnets. If they get their range tonight, they are capable of putting up 120 points. New Zealand run, run and run. New Zealand also have Penney back which will help them on offence. The only way this goes under is if the Blaze can't shoot the 3's. With what they showed last week, on their night, they can put up 3 figures. New Zealand are a team that can go with that.

Experimental Plays

Gold Coast v New Zealand
3 units Under 168.5 @ $1.90

Adelaide v Sydney
3 units Under 161.5 @ $1.90

Perth v Cairns
3 units Under 161.5 @ $1.90

Good luck, fellas.

Need Perth to bloody well fight back and need the Kings to keep up their end of the bargain. The NZ bet and the overs should be safe. Though, it wouldnt' surprise me if the box shoot shit in the second half.

Dammit. Just missed out by .5 in the Sydney match for the unders plays.

 

After tonight, the under will be 10-9 which means a 0 breakeven. Hope these fucking books heighten the totals a bit.

-0.8 for the YTD

+17.8 for the Round.

In regards to overs/unders

It's now 10-9 in favour of the under.

Therefore, I lost -3.3 units tonight in that experiment, making it now a breakeven. That's right, 0.

 

At the end of the round, I will either be in profit, or be in deficit in this experiment. Tempting me to call it off. But considering how much I'm up, I can afford to keep doing it.

 

Bolar with endless amounts of money

 If I weren't losing it on the fucking spastics in the cricket.

Nah, I'm very tempted to take a week or two off of NBL and all gambling in particular and just keep posting the experiment plays.

I'll wait for in-play to put a huge bet on, maybe. But

5 units Tigers @ $1.76

 

3 units Under 161.5 @ $1.90

Keep this up, Melbourne.