NBL R22

YTD: 126-89  +36.2u

 

Thought this was a rather fiendish plan because I think if Wollongong get the win I think their is a high chance Adelaide will roll Singapore pretty badly, but if Wollongong lose Adelaide may play like depressed muppets.

 

Wollongong don't have a great record against Cairns, but the way Cairns has been playing and with Darnell Mee and Grabeau still out, plus it is wollongong's final home game, i think this is about 50-50 so the $2.40-$2.50 you can get for Wollongong is value for mine.

 

I think Cairns will be tight and miss some shots and generally look to slow it down and play half court game as Jawia, Abney and Cattalini theoretically should be stronger than Tragadh and Davidson down low. Wollongong generally haven't been putting up big scores lately.

 

Think this will be a hard fought defensive encounter.

 

 

NZ have a poor road record. However, they have had a pretty tough road schedule with a few home Thursday and away Saturdays and a couple of back to backs. They have had the best part of a week to set themselves for this one.

 

NZ have more to play for here, both ladder position and knowing they can be competitive with the top teams away. They have been playing well and getting contributions from a lot of players in recent games.

 

Sydney look a couple of rungs above all the other teams at the moment and could win this one by plenty if they are near their best and shoot well. However, I think NZ will make a game of it.

 

 

GL

Not going well so far. Wollongong lead by 3 at 3QT and lost by 20+?

 

Adding:

YTD: 129-91  +37.4u

 

 

Townsville have won 9 of their last 10 home games, the only loss being to Gold Coast. Box score suggests Townsville shot the ball poorly from 3 @16% while Blaze shot it well @43%. Both teams taking alot of 3s.

 

My numbers suggest Townsville by double digits. I believe it is a bad idea to place too much emphasis on a teams last game but having seen both teams last games on tv it is hard not to reflect on the difference. Townsville caned Brisbane with Homicide a clear stand out. Even though he barely played in the first half due to foul trouble he finished with 32 points in about 27 minutes, plus 8 rebounds, 4a and 2s.

 

Gold Coast and their point guard Crowe on the other hand stunk against Perth. Crowe had 7 turnovers, no assists and 4 points.

 

Similarly with the over, Townsville have only scored under 100 twice in their last two home games a 97 against Perth and a 79 against Gold Coast.

 

As I understand it, which is not very well as there seem a few million combinations, both sides can still finish higher or lower, although higher seems fairly unlikely for both.

 

Think the losses against GC are an abberation and Townsville should roll tonight and put up some points.

 

Good luck binomial. These seem to be the popular plays tonight, but I find it hard to disagree with Townsville.

good luck binomial..crocs -6

YTD: 130-92  +37.3u

 

Played a fair few tonight. In general I am betting top teams will smash teams who are out of it.

 

Hendrix is suspended and given he is around 19 points a game not sure who is going to fill the gap unless Groves or Jingles go for 40, which i doubt sydney will allow.

 

Sydney were ordinairy in january but have turned it up in feb. I think they will be keen to go into the finals with a solid win, whereas the dragons will be keen for their disaster of a season to be over.

 

 

Both teams have been pedestrian for a while, if not worse. I think Melbourne need a solid win to convince themselves they are a contender.

 

West Sydney have forgotten how to win.

 

NZ still a bit under rated for mine.

 

Travel should not be a huge factor here as both teams played on the east coast wednesday. Perth have not smashed many top 8 teams at home this season, except for Melbourne and GC who are not looking much of a top8 team at the moment.

 

Someone on another board said Gerard Brown is doubtful with a bad ankle but i couldn't find anything to confirm this. However, in my opinon he would be a huge loss if he can't play. If this was confirmed I would look to up my bet and maybe have a ping on the money line.

 

I think this will be competitive and NZ have a solid chance to keep it close if not pull off a suprise win.

 

Think it unlikely it will be a high scoring encounter unless the shooting is accurate.

 

Cairns put it into overdrive and scored 38 in the last quarter in wollongong turning a 3 point deficit into a 21 point win. Apart from that they have been struggling big time.

 

Townsville come in on a roll having one four in a row. They played last night but most players were under 30 minutes.

 

Going with the team that has shown more than 1 decent quarter in recent games, although not very confident with either of these two bets.

 

Wollongong running out of steam. They couldn't play with Brisbane at home so it is hard to see them making a game of it in Brisbane where the Bullets are a far stonger proposition.

YTD regular season games: 134-95  +37.3u

 

Futures bet Townsville to finish higher than Perth and NZ lost 2 units.

 

YTD: 134-95 +35.3u

 

Remaining futures bets to win it:

Townsville @ $31 1u

Perth @ $17 1u

 

 

Great work binomial, hope you finish off the finals with style.

 

Almost time now for the footy guys