-45.5 @ Centrebet - That's actually pretty good compared to other sites (Pinnacle is at 48.5).
I'll lock that in for 1 unit.
Good effort by Brisbane, Hawks just to strong at the end. Got worried when that "holding the ball" call gave Brisbane a chance at the cover within the last 3 mins.
(4-2 +2.5u)
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:
-45.5 @ Centrebet - That's actually pretty good compared to other sites (Pinnacle is at 48.5).
I'll lock that in for 1 unit.
Good effort by Brisbane, Hawks just to strong at the end. Got worried when that "holding the ball" call gave Brisbane a chance at the cover within the last 3 mins.
I have been off the mark with my totals a little in round 1, but this match-up has traditionally been a "banker" in terms of being a shoot-out. I am a little concerned over how new coach Adam Simpson will change his offensive set plays, but all the same players remain, I think he will be looking for more composure in his forward line, then anything else.
Since 2011, the total has gone over 4 out of 5 times between these two teams, with the lone remaining game missing by 2 points.
Perfect conditions in Perth for this match-up and for what should produce a lot of goals (traditionally by West Coast). I had considered laying the -30.5 points for West Coast, but will hope that history repeats itself with another total win.
I will be playing 1 unit on the total at (199.5). Don't play more then a unit, as I am still a tad worried about Adam Simpson's offensive set-up.
Round 2 early thoughts:
Next week is going to be, as Bruce Mcavaney would say, "special". So many excellent match-ups!
EG: Richmond v Carlton, Essendon v Hawthorn, St Kilda v GWS, Freo v GC and Sydney v Collingwood! Can't wait =)
I will be waiting to see if Richmond v Carlton will be a PK...The value with Essendon against the Hawks, the points that GCS gets against Freo and whether the Pies are a PK against Sydney at their home, where they traditionally play well..
Cheers lads
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles
I have been off the mark with my totals a little in round 1, but this match-up has traditionally been a "banker" in terms of being a shoot-out. I am a little concerned over how new coach Adam Simpson will change his offensive set plays, but all the same players remain, I think he will be looking for more composure in his forward line, then anything else.
Since 2011, the total has gone over 4 out of 5 times between these two teams, with the lone remaining game missing by 2 points.
Perfect conditions in Perth for this match-up and for what should produce a lot of goals (traditionally by West Coast). I had considered laying the -30.5 points for West Coast, but will hope that history repeats itself with another total win.
I will be playing 1 unit on the total at (199.5). Don't play more then a unit, as I am still a tad worried about Adam Simpson's offensive set-up.
Round 2 early thoughts:
Next week is going to be, as Bruce Mcavaney would say, "special". So many excellent match-ups!
EG: Richmond v Carlton, Essendon v Hawthorn, St Kilda v GWS, Freo v GC and Sydney v Collingwood! Can't wait =)
I will be waiting to see if Richmond v Carlton will be a PK...The value with Essendon against the Hawks, the points that GCS gets against Freo and whether the Pies are a PK against Sydney at their home, where they traditionally play well..
Actually - this has become a no play - there is a chance of a storm hovering above Perth (conditions were listed as perfect earlier in the day). - If rain does develop, the total will drop to the 170-180 mark.
Actually - this has become a no play - there is a chance of a storm hovering above Perth (conditions were listed as perfect earlier in the day). - If rain does develop, the total will drop to the 170-180 mark.
Nah mate. Started off with the right intentions, then turn overs. In hindsight, West Coast would use this as a percentage booster, so either their TT or line would have been the play.
Totals have been a lot harder in round 1 to cap. Might leave them for the next few rounds.
Nice hit with the HT line though! Smashed it in.
Nah mate. Started off with the right intentions, then turn overs. In hindsight, West Coast would use this as a percentage booster, so either their TT or line would have been the play.
Totals have been a lot harder in round 1 to cap. Might leave them for the next few rounds.
Current total is set at 193.5. I'll be playing it on the over for 1 unit.
(6-2 +3.5u)
Nothing like a 20 goal second half to drag the total over. Kind of like last years game, except all the scoring was done in the first half. At least it opened up, the heat probably helped =)
Cheers Enjoi. Nice work today too mate, 6-0, nice run! Good luck to you this coming week to mate. AFL returns Thursday night =) And after a couple of tough games, back up on top.
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:
Current total is set at 193.5. I'll be playing it on the over for 1 unit.
(6-2 +3.5u)
Nothing like a 20 goal second half to drag the total over. Kind of like last years game, except all the scoring was done in the first half. At least it opened up, the heat probably helped =)
Cheers Enjoi. Nice work today too mate, 6-0, nice run! Good luck to you this coming week to mate. AFL returns Thursday night =) And after a couple of tough games, back up on top.
Interesting considerations to watch throughout the week
**Essendon offering similar odds against Hawks as they did against North...Much tougher competition though, if anyone knows how to beat them...It's B.T
***Collingwood +17.5 dogs against Sydney...Traditionally play well in Sydney...
**** Saints v GWS is indeed a PK...watch this one develop throughout the week
*****Richmond a -6.5 favourite against Carlton....I expect this to move during the week to around the 3.5 mark...
See you Thursday! With 2 losses last weekend, ended with a 4-0 weekend.
Round 2 lines are up at Sportsbet.
Interesting considerations to watch throughout the week
**Essendon offering similar odds against Hawks as they did against North...Much tougher competition though, if anyone knows how to beat them...It's B.T
***Collingwood +17.5 dogs against Sydney...Traditionally play well in Sydney...
**** Saints v GWS is indeed a PK...watch this one develop throughout the week
*****Richmond a -6.5 favourite against Carlton....I expect this to move during the week to around the 3.5 mark...
See you Thursday! With 2 losses last weekend, ended with a 4-0 weekend.
Fuking unbelievable 14.2 scored in the last quarter
It was a crazy final quarter. A bit like the late 80s-90s days of free flowing footy. 14 goals in a quarter is normally what is scored in a half...and that's even relatively high scoring these days.
These two teams are often free flowing though, but I think it was because of the heat which opened it up in the end. There was no run and no defence as everyone was spent after a lot of energy use in the first. Bulldogs were well down on contested possessions, which was a sign of fitness and fatigue setting in.
Fun to watch though.
Quote Originally Posted by NotASingleDoubt:
Fuking unbelievable 14.2 scored in the last quarter
It was a crazy final quarter. A bit like the late 80s-90s days of free flowing footy. 14 goals in a quarter is normally what is scored in a half...and that's even relatively high scoring these days.
These two teams are often free flowing though, but I think it was because of the heat which opened it up in the end. There was no run and no defence as everyone was spent after a lot of energy use in the first. Bulldogs were well down on contested possessions, which was a sign of fitness and fatigue setting in.
Richmond up to -7.5 Bombers pushed to +17.5 Saints up to $1.95 vs 1.85 for GWS Port -7.5 for the Adelaide derby North -18.5 vs the Bulldogs (Definite value to watch as I cant see North's current performance not changing against a confused bulldogs team)
Line moves
Richmond up to -7.5 Bombers pushed to +17.5 Saints up to $1.95 vs 1.85 for GWS Port -7.5 for the Adelaide derby North -18.5 vs the Bulldogs (Definite value to watch as I cant see North's current performance not changing against a confused bulldogs team)
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