AFL Round 1

Hi guys,

Using this little thread to post my thoughts for round 1. Looking forward to what should be a cracking season. The top 4 spots should be really open this year, the first kind of a somewhat unpredictable outcome thats hard to determine in some years.

Fremantle v Collingwood(AH)

On paper and at home, you would think that we might be looking at a PK with Fremantle's form from last season being stellar and the pies looking clueless in their finals performance last year, but still strong generally in front of a home crowd.

Still, Fremantle has been edged as a favourite with bookmakers giving anywhere between 7-9 points to Collingwood.

At first, I really liked the juice on Collingwood at Etihad. They have beaten Fremantle 4 of the last 5 times, however the surge of Ross Lyon's influence over Fremantle is but a fraction of those performances.

In the media, Lyon has stated how he wished his team had 3 more weeks to prepare for the season, as he felt that they were somewhat behind other teams. I don't buy it, I agree with Shane Crawford's statement on The Footy Show last night, that Lyon is a sly old fox and that his team will be more then ready and it's but a small way of trying to catch his opponent off guard.

What further solidifies this point, to me, is that Fremantle spent a fair bit of dosh in the off-season and hired somewhat "spies", so to speak, to:

1. Find out what his first four opponents have been up to, both preparation wise and possible tactics
2. Ascertain training state
3. Research Hawthorns successful training and fitness regime

The Grand Final loss, Lyon's 3rd, visually still peeves him off, and I think he has had a burning desire, ever since that last day in September, to correct the small problems in Fremantle's offensive structure.

Collingwood, in 2010, looked like we were going to see them peak and reach another dynasty level. The trading of both Shaw in defence, and all-round utility Daisy, will be interesting to see how well the mid-field and defence communicate. I know Bucks will want to start the year strongly, but I think he will have his hands full.

Fremantle appear to be at full strength and this match will have been circled by Lyon as a must win. I'll go with a team that should be looking to continue their strong form from last season against a Pies side that will probably continue an inconsistent year.

I'll be playing Fremantle for 2 units on the line at (-7.5)

Goodluck!

 

Greater Western Sydney vs Sydney

Richmond vs Gold Coast

 Nice write-ups.

Thanks mate :)

you fool, do you realize how much money I lost listening to you? Absolutely buried by another clueless nitwit.

Swans looked lame, 2nd half. GWS hussled for everything. Hats off to them for the win. See how they fair next week.

@FadePublicATS - 1 unit is 1 unit? Perhaps you need to look at money management. Going all in on a round 1 bet is pretty clueless.

@hansivonmueller - I agree. Will be definite value in fading GWS after this win. Sydney were outclassed in every facet. When they lead by 4 goals, they simply made costly turnovers and gave all the motivation to GWS.

Port Adelaide v Carlton

I really believe that order is restored today in the AFL.

Mick Malthouse has received what he claims to be "the trade that can set Carlton's midfield straight" with Daisy Thomas joining the fray.

Port Adelaide were impressive last year and were extremely profitable when giving points ATS. Today in the first round though, is a perfect let down spot.

Two things for me:

1. Mick Malthouse's experience in opening rounds vs Ken Hinkley's.
2. The Carlton mid field.

I'll keep it simple. All hats off to GWS and GCS yesterday for impressive win's, but I cannot see another upset on the cards.

I'll be playing Carlton for 3 units on the line at (-8.5).

Good luck!

Ignore the idiots in the forum. There are plenty of them though.

Thanks Rod.

Good luck to you too mate.

Looks good... Will jump in this one to.

Blues 

Webber

Lucky

(1-2 -2u)
Carlton had it on their terms and ran out of legs. Wire-to-wires would have been profitable bets this first half of round one.

3 Dog ATS & SU wins. Season a bit unpredictable in it's infancy.

Adelaide vs Geelong

I'll keep this one simple. From the opening rounds, the theme, to me, seems to be team stability. For example, we saw a stable and well prepared Fremantle team tear apart a disorganised and fragmented Collingwood side.

Sydney's forward structure has completely changed and GWS pre-season seemed to have been all about applying continuous pressure. Whilst you can't read to much in to pre-season matches, I think GWS were quite happy with Sydney thumping them, only to suprise them with there real game plan come the time when it matters.

Then GCS were completely well drilled over a mediocre Richmond.

So what does this translate to Adelaide and Geelong? Both teams are adapting to new structures. Geelong letting go of 3 of their veterans (with J-Pod going to Adelaide), Hunt to GWS and Chapman to Essendon. Adelaide receiving, as mentioned J-Pod, Eddie Betts from Carlton, trading out Bernie Vince with a couple of other shuffles.

The thing about tonights match is that Adelaide knows Geelong all to well. Geelong have been notoriously a mess at covering spreads from 18+ onwards, I just think that, in terms of the theme surrounding round 1, that right now, they have a lot more stability. Certainly, a couple of injuries won't help, I believe at the Cattery though, Geelong will get the job done with the team lifting with Bartells 250th game. Twitter is alive by Geelong players imploring the public to get down to tonights game to support this, so I read that as a sign that they are truly prepared for their opening round

I'll be playing Geelong to win for 2 units on the line (-19.5 @ Centrebet).

My other leans right now for the rest of the round (will update)

Essendon +8.5 vs North Melbourne (3 units)
Hawthorn -46.5 vs Brisbane Lions (1.5 units)

(2-2 0u)

Nice to get back to a reset for the season.

What are your thoughts on the Kangas tonight? Essendon are in disarray and poor management and locker morale should transfer to poor performance. Thinking of laying the 11.5 tonight.

Hey Enjoi

Really difficult game. Essendon have now blown out to 13.5 points from being at 8.5 just 24 hours ago. Massive money has come in for North.

In keeping with the tradition of Round 1, North has only 1-2 changes that I don't really see impacting them (addition of Del Santo etc). They did have a horrible pre-season but they themselves said that they were testing out different strategies.

North love to run the ball and I am considering whether the game total is of more value to play then the line. There was definite value on the line 24 hours ago, I'm just not sure about now.

Will Essendon still have a hangover affect from last year? Bomber is such a well drilled coach and I think his out to make a statement.

If the supplement scandal had never have happened, Essendon could have made the top 4 last year, it's such a hard game to predict.

Nevertheless, I don't want to deter your initial lean for North. I'm going to sit and look over a few more things before pulling the trigger on the total or a line.

Not much help on this one sorry mate. North are the team with more composure right now, I just hated their set plays in the pre-season, and I know it was just testing them, but mate, they looked ugly.

Essendon has now blown out to +14.5 dogs. The public aren't overly confident that they have themselves together, I just can't underestimate the passion that Bomber has for this season.

Thanks for the analysis, even though I went a head with North Melb. What a poor showing by them and you were absolutely right about their ugly play. What's good for tonight?

Yeah, it was definitely ugly mate. They looked ok for the first quarter, but noone really looked like scoring apart from Thomas. You couldn't be faulted for choosing North though, I think Essendon though will still pose value against top sides (Hawks, Geelong, Fremantle) - Just have to chose the right spot. Hirdy mightnt have a job to come home too!

The Hawks match is a tough one to gauge, we saw what happened when we laid big points in Round 1. But I really will take a lot from the pre-season with them. Set plays, structures, defensive positions in tact and of course "Buddy who?".

Brisbane has a new coach coming in but is one team that I have to say I haven't followed as closely. So they are a bit of an unknown right now.

Hawks traditionally play well in Tasmania, but I will probably play them on the line for 1 unit only.

The value tonight is on St Kilda and Melbourne. I can't believe Melbourne is a $1.55 favourite against the Saints. How the times have changed!

I'll be back soon, but it looks like a small play on the Hawks line.

what's your line for the Hawks? I've got -47.5

-45.5 @ Centrebet - That's actually pretty good compared to other sites (Pinnacle is at 48.5).

I'll lock that in for 1 unit.