AFL R8

YTD: 27-27  +4.6u

 

Played a couple of futures:

I think WB are third best team and possibly not that far off the top 2, Plus:

- fairly easy draw

- a few players to come back: West, Williams, Everitt and Higgins

- soft schedule to date but they handled their first real test, Sydney at SCG in style

 

Think it should be more like $8

 

My rough calcs give them about 40% chance of making finals. Assigning a probability to each game I came up with 7.2 wins for the rest of the season, giving them 11. Their percantage is terrible already and given they have so much trouble scoring hard to see them fixing it. I don't think this will be enough to get in.

 

 

Only Port and Brisbane are serious contenders outside the 8 IMO with Richmond some chance (Richmond have 7 games against Essendon, WC, Carlton, Fremantle and Melbourne if they won these and 2 others against better sides they should make it, not completely out of the question). I think Port and Brisbane are better teams.

 

 

Fremantle have butchered wins in their last three games (they were even with Adelaide in the last quarter but managed to lose by 3 goals, similar against Geelong and far worse v Melbourne).

 

I think WB are a much better side, but even if it is close seems a reasonable chance Fremantle will go to powder in the last quarter 

Looks like Brisbane will have close to their best team:

 

I think there pressure will cause alot of skill errors from Carlton.

 

 

I've taken 221 points or more @ $2.40 before that price goes down.

 

Lappin is available this week too I think. I feel sorry for the young players who are going to miss out.

 

In this week could possibly be.

 

Brown, Black, Johnstone, Lappin, Drummond.

 

If that's the case, then Brown and Bradshaw have a good supply from Power, Adcock, Johnstone, Lappin, Drummond, Black.

 

I've also taken Brisbane to win because the young players are starting to develop and with the handy additions that are back in this lineup.

I've taken 221 points or more @ $2.40 before that price goes down.

 

Lappin is available this week too I think. I feel sorry for the young players who are going to miss out.

 

In this week could possibly be.

 

Brown, Black, Johnstone, Lappin, Drummond.

 

If that's the case, then Brown and Bradshaw have a good supply from Power, Adcock, Johnstone, Lappin, Drummond, Black.

 

I've also taken Brisbane to win because the young players are starting to develop and with the handy additions that are back in this lineup.

Bolar I am with you. That will be a high scoring game. not just from Carlton but leigh will instruct his team to kick to B1 and B2....... my opinion anyway.

Anyone got on any thoughts why there is money for fremantle? They look a little stronger with their inclusions, but most of their players aren't playing particularly well whereas key players like Cooney, Griffen, Murphy and Hahn for WB are close to career best form.

 

Maybe people are focusing on the 1 point loss to Geelong. Geelong were pretty hopeless for the majority of the game but won with a couple of hot bursts.

 

Can't understand how people would be excited about backing fremantle here.

Another factor i reckon is that fremantle coach harvey is freaking out under the pressure, similar ro laidley in the early days when he looked to be holding more stress between his eyebrows than the rest of the planet put together. leadership crumbling doesn't set much of a tone.

 

Playing:

 

Weather reduces the chance of 40+ but i don't think the odds have adjusted. Also increases the chance of the dogs winning, but i like both favourites chances to get the win given they have both shown strong desire to win all season each having come from behind wins. 

North still not getting much respect IMO. WC are getting mauled by everyone. Even though may not be many spectators north are fairly used to that and I think they will toughen up and win this easy after a poor showing in Adelaide last start.