AFL - RD 6

Last Wk: 2-9
YTD: 18-18

Adel -50.5 v Freo

More later

Correction on YTD: 18-20

Like it, Crows look sharp and very good at home, Freo made me feel ill watching them play last week. I actually could not believe my eyes how bad they werep

Adding NM -1.5... Probably get burned for this, but done.

And Tigers -19.5

Tricky week this week.

You sure you have confidence in the Tigers to win by three goals-plus, even with the new Port outs?

I was leaning Port before the announcement, but might play them on the line now.  Only thing that is holding me up is their pathetic I50 ability.  Dead-last in the comp, if I remember correctly.

Not sure about them at all. Getting key players back with Port additional injuries is the key factor. At home and desperate as... Feel like it will be similar to the pounding the Pies gave last week (far less of a margin of course)...

And I'll never bet Port... Don't like its culture.

Deledio back is massive for Tigers. It's ridiculous their win rate with / without him.

Think it's more of a mentality thing rather than him being a good player. Sure he's decent, has a motor and a great kick, but he's in no way elite.

Wow Freo giving up 50.5 points. That once proud but god damn awful to watch team is fairing as bad as Carlton and Essendon.

He is elite

Thanks Ecoute... Funny thing is at least their opponents can now score...

Taking5% hit on Crows play to get lower line

Adelaide -44.5

Over 189.5. NM/WB

Enjoy the game tonight!

Uncle Pav's deal with the devil to have a shot at a flag was valid for one season only.

Well, Dees line starting to move out, so I land on them to win and cover in the end. Also think scoring is good on both sides.

Dees -4.5
Over 186.5

Good luck!

Like the Over!

Yeah, over looking good late In 1Q...

Feeling queasy with the line play when the broadcasting crew shows the Dees with only 1 win at Ethihad... Where was the afl.com.au journo on that one?!?! Haha!

Sheez, meanwhile in Adelaide, Freo up 8-0 sans Fyfe...

If you live bet, watch for a 4Q line play on Dees...

Saints haven't won the Q yet, Dees lost once in Rd 2 to Bombers...

Giants / Hawks Over 181.5

Hawks -5.5, somehow

Dees/Saints Over   

Yeah, I was sweating early in the Freo game.  Adelaide got me over the line.


I can keep my house. 

Haha... Nice!

Tigers getting out muscled at home by the least physical team in the comp to date... What a joke

Someone please paste in the link of video with Hardwick saying all good, it's a finals side, etc a few weeks ago... The twittisphere should be on fire with a loop of that crap.

Port +19.5 was just too much.  All the negative press around them has seriously clouded how explosive they can be.  It wasn't like they were 0-6 going into that match.  And they have undoubtedly played better football than Richmond has up to this point.

I leaned Port but didn't end up playing it, much like the North/Dogs Under.  I had fun in the NRL instead.  Hahaha...

Brisbane getting too many points tonight I reckon, but again, all my leans this round outside of Port/Tigers are line-movement based, not actually on-field based.  My Swannies should roll a piss-poor Brisbane by 50, but something isn't right about that line as money has been coming in on the Lions to win outright. 

Gonna take a shot on the Dons at +13.5.  Originally leaned on Carlton all week, but this line is funny and it's going the wrong way.  Currently down to 10.5 in many place.

Cripps out for the Blues will give the Bombers a little much needed run through the middle.  Also, not too sure of the current conditions, but the weather has been sh!tty in Melbourne lately so this could only help Essendon.

Might also make a ridiculous contrarian play on the total of Over 156.5.  This again should be a little lower, so I might just play it the other way instead.  Not sure yet.

I didn't take the Swannies as well, and I think the line is/was based on their history of mailing it in against walkover opponents on the road.

I'm taking Eagles -44.5 to the bank.

Wished I had grabbed Bombers +18.5 earlier in the week. But Carlton by two goals, I'm gonna take that. And the Over. :)

WCE -44.5
Carl -10.5
Carl/Ess Over 156.5

Esso don will score. Good luck mate.