i knew gilbert was going to try to cherry pick some green points and when i saw him try i was pumped b/c i knew that HTC wouldn't let him and then he would be dead for the sprint.
still can't believe thor was +200 over gilbert. i hope it's the same tomorrow.
i knew gilbert was going to try to cherry pick some green points and when i saw him try i was pumped b/c i knew that HTC wouldn't let him and then he would be dead for the sprint.
still can't believe thor was +200 over gilbert. i hope it's the same tomorrow.
btw - i would never bet on a breakaway winner. about 2 or 3 breakaways/year survive and you got about 50 - 80 guys realistically to choose from in about 8 or 9 stages which makes the odds of hitting astronomical. much greater than +4100 (thomas odds).
btw - i would never bet on a breakaway winner. about 2 or 3 breakaways/year survive and you got about 50 - 80 guys realistically to choose from in about 8 or 9 stages which makes the odds of hitting astronomical. much greater than +4100 (thomas odds).
Kloden over Jeanneson (+160) 2u Thor over Gilbert (+105) 5u Evans over De Weert (+100) 2u S. Sanchez over Cunego (-130) 2u Contador over Danielson (-130) 2u Trofimov over Gusev (+175) 2u L.L. Sanchez over Voekler (+175) 2u Cavendish over Greipel (-345) 3u Galimzyanov over Ciolek (-225) 3u
Stage 11: 4-5 +2.65 units
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
a lot of plays tomorrow...
Stage 11:
Kloden over Jeanneson (+160) 2u Thor over Gilbert (+105) 5u Evans over De Weert (+100) 2u S. Sanchez over Cunego (-130) 2u Contador over Danielson (-130) 2u Trofimov over Gusev (+175) 2u L.L. Sanchez over Voekler (+175) 2u Cavendish over Greipel (-345) 3u Galimzyanov over Ciolek (-225) 3u
who do you think wins tomorrow's stage? I highly doubt any breakaway can survive so I am thinking one of the top climbers most likely contador or one of the schlecks.
who do you think wins tomorrow's stage? I highly doubt any breakaway can survive so I am thinking one of the top climbers most likely contador or one of the schlecks.
Can't wait for tomorrow, finaly a mountain stage (the bad thing is that I won't catch more than 15 min before the top of Tourmalet and forward cause of work...)
Contadors knee is fine or not 100% makes this stage a bit toughter to predict when it comes to a winner... If he's 100%, either him, Andy or Sammy will take it imo, if not it could be someone like LLS, Szmyd, Moncoutié or CA Sørenesen...
Think I'll take a shot with Sammy for the win @ +800 and Moncoutié @ +1500 for the stage win (might get a better line with one of the other two bookies I use, but not out yet..) for a unit each and concentrate more about the h2h's as I think you can find a lot of nice matchups and good value tomorrow imo...
Nice Tour so far sims
Can't wait for tomorrow, finaly a mountain stage (the bad thing is that I won't catch more than 15 min before the top of Tourmalet and forward cause of work...)
Contadors knee is fine or not 100% makes this stage a bit toughter to predict when it comes to a winner... If he's 100%, either him, Andy or Sammy will take it imo, if not it could be someone like LLS, Szmyd, Moncoutié or CA Sørenesen...
Think I'll take a shot with Sammy for the win @ +800 and Moncoutié @ +1500 for the stage win (might get a better line with one of the other two bookies I use, but not out yet..) for a unit each and concentrate more about the h2h's as I think you can find a lot of nice matchups and good value tomorrow imo...
contador is bluffing ....he said he wont attack on this stage. I know for sure he will attack whenver possible because he is the best climber and he knows it.
contador is bluffing ....he said he wont attack on this stage. I know for sure he will attack whenver possible because he is the best climber and he knows it.
tomorrow is going to be really tough to cap imo b/c there is no mountain stage to base fitness on yet.
i expect contador, andy and maybe 1 other spanish climber in the final group tomorrow. like last year, they probably can't drop each other. i'll take andy at plus money b/c he might outsprint contador at the line.
i will definitely be adding to my contador future tonite though.
tomorrow is going to be really tough to cap imo b/c there is no mountain stage to base fitness on yet.
i expect contador, andy and maybe 1 other spanish climber in the final group tomorrow. like last year, they probably can't drop each other. i'll take andy at plus money b/c he might outsprint contador at the line.
i will definitely be adding to my contador future tonite though.
Got matchups with 2 of my 3 bookies and so far I like:
# S. Sanchez over F. Schelck (-105) 4* Might be a dangerous matchup for my biggest bet of the Tour so far, but I realy like Sanchez in this stage. Sammy and Contador have talked about working together with Sammy saying that if Contador attacked, he would co-op with him if he managed to hold on. Also it's a lot of downhill here too and while Sammy is one of, if not the best downhill rider in this race, Frank is among the worst. After reading a lot of rumors for tomorrows stage, everyting suggest that Contador will attack and that will mean that Sammy will also do so...
# Basso over Gesink (-182) 3* A lot of juice to be me, but Basso should be right up there with the best and might even fight for a top 3 place. I expect Gesink to be a bit down on the list (like among top 40 or so...)
# Velits over Roche (-130) 2* Velits should be among the top 10 imo and I don't see Roche getting a better result than top 25 at best..
# Cunego over Uran (-154) 2* Cunego is another rider that should be up there and get a top 15 place while a healty Uran would be an outsider, he feelt banged up after his fall earlier this week and it was reported that he had some pain in his knee something that's not good on a mt. stage (was close to place 3* on it cause of that, but don't trust Cunego enough yet while Uran might be better than reported)
# Coppel over Karpets (-125) 2* # Taaramae over Devenens (-143) 2* # S. Sanches over Evans (+120) 2* # Vandeveld over Klöden (-111) 1* # LLS over Voeckler (+140) 1* # Charteau over Rolland (-118) 1*
Got matchups with 2 of my 3 bookies and so far I like:
# S. Sanchez over F. Schelck (-105) 4* Might be a dangerous matchup for my biggest bet of the Tour so far, but I realy like Sanchez in this stage. Sammy and Contador have talked about working together with Sammy saying that if Contador attacked, he would co-op with him if he managed to hold on. Also it's a lot of downhill here too and while Sammy is one of, if not the best downhill rider in this race, Frank is among the worst. After reading a lot of rumors for tomorrows stage, everyting suggest that Contador will attack and that will mean that Sammy will also do so...
# Basso over Gesink (-182) 3* A lot of juice to be me, but Basso should be right up there with the best and might even fight for a top 3 place. I expect Gesink to be a bit down on the list (like among top 40 or so...)
# Velits over Roche (-130) 2* Velits should be among the top 10 imo and I don't see Roche getting a better result than top 25 at best..
# Cunego over Uran (-154) 2* Cunego is another rider that should be up there and get a top 15 place while a healty Uran would be an outsider, he feelt banged up after his fall earlier this week and it was reported that he had some pain in his knee something that's not good on a mt. stage (was close to place 3* on it cause of that, but don't trust Cunego enough yet while Uran might be better than reported)
# Coppel over Karpets (-125) 2* # Taaramae over Devenens (-143) 2* # S. Sanches over Evans (+120) 2* # Vandeveld over Klöden (-111) 1* # LLS over Voeckler (+140) 1* # Charteau over Rolland (-118) 1*
Got matchups with 2 of my 3 bookies and so far I like:
# S. Sanchez over F. Schelck (-105) 4* Might be a dangerous matchup for my biggest bet of the Tour so far, but I realy like Sanchez in this stage. Sammy and Contador have talked about working together with Sammy saying that if Contador attacked, he would co-op with him if he managed to hold on. Also it's a lot of downhill here too and while Sammy is one of, if not the best downhill rider in this race, Frank is among the worst. After reading a lot of rumors for tomorrows stage, everyting suggest that Contador will attack and that will mean that Sammy will also do so...
don't like this b/c frank and andy and contador might be the only 3 left...see 2009 tour.
# Basso over Gesink (-182) 3* A lot of juice to be me, but Basso should be right up there with the best and might even fight for a top 3 place. I expect Gesink to be a bit down on the list (like among top 40 or so...)
don't like this b/c gesink finished 6th and 7th on the 2 hardest stages last year. love the plus money on gesink here...basso overpriced.
# Velits over Roche (-130) 2* Velits should be among the top 10 imo and I don't see Roche getting a better result than top 25 at best..
FYI - Roche 14th and 12th on 2 hardest stages last year.
# Cunego over Uran (-154) 2* Cunego is another rider that should be up there and get a top 15 place while a healty Uran would be an outsider, he feelt banged up after his fall earlier this week and it was reported that he had some pain in his knee something that's not good on a mt. stage (was close to place 3* on it cause of that, but don't trust Cunego enough yet while Uran might be better than reported)
would never pay that much juice on cunego and don't know enough uran.
# Coppel over Karpets (-125) 2* # Taaramae over Devenens (-143) 2* # S. Sanches over Evans (+120) 2*like this a lot # Vandeveld over Klöden (-111) 1*opposite of this too...klodi can climb - might finish top 10 overall and i'm not believer in vandevelde. # LLS over Voeckler (+140) 1* # Charteau over Rolland (-118) 1*
Quote Originally Posted by Lucky7th:
Got matchups with 2 of my 3 bookies and so far I like:
# S. Sanchez over F. Schelck (-105) 4* Might be a dangerous matchup for my biggest bet of the Tour so far, but I realy like Sanchez in this stage. Sammy and Contador have talked about working together with Sammy saying that if Contador attacked, he would co-op with him if he managed to hold on. Also it's a lot of downhill here too and while Sammy is one of, if not the best downhill rider in this race, Frank is among the worst. After reading a lot of rumors for tomorrows stage, everyting suggest that Contador will attack and that will mean that Sammy will also do so...
don't like this b/c frank and andy and contador might be the only 3 left...see 2009 tour.
# Basso over Gesink (-182) 3* A lot of juice to be me, but Basso should be right up there with the best and might even fight for a top 3 place. I expect Gesink to be a bit down on the list (like among top 40 or so...)
don't like this b/c gesink finished 6th and 7th on the 2 hardest stages last year. love the plus money on gesink here...basso overpriced.
# Velits over Roche (-130) 2* Velits should be among the top 10 imo and I don't see Roche getting a better result than top 25 at best..
FYI - Roche 14th and 12th on 2 hardest stages last year.
# Cunego over Uran (-154) 2* Cunego is another rider that should be up there and get a top 15 place while a healty Uran would be an outsider, he feelt banged up after his fall earlier this week and it was reported that he had some pain in his knee something that's not good on a mt. stage (was close to place 3* on it cause of that, but don't trust Cunego enough yet while Uran might be better than reported)
would never pay that much juice on cunego and don't know enough uran.
# Coppel over Karpets (-125) 2* # Taaramae over Devenens (-143) 2* # S. Sanches over Evans (+120) 2*like this a lot # Vandeveld over Klöden (-111) 1*opposite of this too...klodi can climb - might finish top 10 overall and i'm not believer in vandevelde. # LLS over Voeckler (+140) 1* # Charteau over Rolland (-118) 1*
(the bad thing is that I won't catch more than 15 min before the top of Tourmalet and forward cause of work...
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