2010 Tour de France

Thanks for the article - a great read.. Your right, it's going to be close!! Goodluck :)

McEwen struggled last night so that should eliminate a sprinter soon enough. Petacchi should be eliminated as that article suggests.

It all depends on what Columbia's motivations are. We need two more wins and there's 3 possible stages.

And I can tell you Cavendish won't have battled through the alps if he wasn't going to go for more wins.

5 units Contador @ $2.75

3 units Kreuziger over Van Den Broeck @ $2.15

5 units Wiggins over Sastre @ $1.65

2 units Sanchez over Van Den Broeck @ $2.30

That's a 4 unit play on Wiggins.

All up, these are my bets in one post.

.2 units Pierrick Fedrigo @ $51
.2 units Egoi Martinez @ $51
.1 unit Christophe Moreau @ $126
.1 unit Damien Monier @ $151
.2 units Rein Taaramae @ $81
.2 units Tony Martin @ $81
.1 units Amael Moinard @ $67
.1 unit Iban Mayoz @ $81

5 units Roman Kreuziger over Alexandre Vinokourov @ $1.65
3 units Roman Kreuziger over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.15
5 units Joaquim Rodriguez over Alexandre Vinokourov @ $1.65
4 units Luis Leon Sanchez over Nicolas Roche @ $1.87
4 units Levi Leipheimer over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.60
3.5 units Samuel Sanchez over Robert Gesink @ $2
3 units Samuel Sanchez over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.30
2.5 units Pierre Rolland over Ryder Hesjedal @ $2.20
4 units Bradley Wiggins over Carlos Sastre @ $1.65

5 units Alberto Contador @ $2.75

BOL today

Wow, Lance giving up on the chase with his small team 3 minutes back. There goes the team classification bet . Can't believe that number was set at over 2 for the last 3 days.

BOL with the bets today .

Weird finish from Contador. Why did he let Sanchez and Andy get away like that when he had decent position throughout the last 2 kms?

saving energy, plus he already closed down a few attacks and struggled with breathing as the heat didn't help. He'll be fine in the pyrenees where he'll blow the field away.

Glad to see your post Bolar as im about to hit the bed and won't be able to place any bets before a bit into the race later....

1st: Do you think a possible break away over the HC climb will last on the downhill??

2nd: who do you think is the best downhill rider?? I see many is liking Sammy who I was liking with his strong showings on the last stage + he's not among the big GC favs so they might let him go...

3rd: I belive both Hesjedal, Saestre and Wiggins gonna lose some time tomorrow. What do you think about that??

4th: How do you belive van Den Broeck will do it?? I was liking him to have a decent stage and "suprise" in some H2H matchup against ex. Gesink...

Was also wondering what you think about Lövkvist over Wiggins @ 1.95?

Gesink can't descend but it's all a matter of how Van den Broeck goes. The jury is out on him. I don't have the balls to back him or fade him.

Best downhiller is Samuel Sanchez by a country mile.

In regards to the break, it all depends on how much the peloton split. There is 20km technical descent so it's impossible to organise a chase on that. The last 10km to the end may not be long enough to chase down a lone rider who took risks on the descent.

Highly unlikely a group contests the stage finish. Either going to be one or two from a break or one or two from the peloton.

Lovkvist and Wiggins - two riders who will lose time today. If I were confident Lovkvist would make it over the top I would take it.

I would expect Wiggins and Sastre to lose time today. Hesjedal too. But again, it depends on how fast the peloton take the stage. If they take it slow, then no one will be dropped. If they put the hammer down, the race will split.

If you have a minute on a group at the top of the climb and you can descend, you won't be caught.

Luis Leon Sanchez is also another one that can descend. Likewise Kreuziger.

Basso, Menchov, Nibali all suck at descending.

Thx for the reply...
Tailed your win pick + added Samuel as a "bail-out" as I got him as my fav just in front of L.L, but I liked the value in your picks...

Been reading on other forums too where they expect BMC to be the team that gonna set the pace in the peloton as they belive both Saxo and Astana got no interest in this stage...

Also they saw either L.L or Samuel likely to take it and with Kreuziger + van Den Broeck as dark horse. Also they wouldn't count out neither Chavanel, Pineau or Moinard...

Also someone talked about Saxo sending either Sørensen or Voight, Sky sending Flecha or Boasson (imo this is to big a climb for Boasson to fight for a win + Sky prob. will make him help Wiggins..) and RadioShack sending someone with LA's situation in the GC...

BMC don't have a team to set a pace up these climbs plus it's in Cadel's best interest to lose the jersey.

-6.25 for stage 8

+2.15 units Stage 9

Prologue: +18.08
Stage 1: -14
Stage 2: +1.7
Stage 3: +31.35
Stage 4: +2.2
Stage 5: +16.21
Stage 6: +6
Stage 7: -5.3
Stage 8: -6.25
Stage 9: +2.15

Overall: +52.14

Most my overall bets are looking strong too.

With Bastille Day tomorrow, do you belive the French like Chavanel, Fedrigo and Moinard have a higher priority for that stage compared to the one today??
Tomorrows stage looks good for Chavanel imo..
Also Boasson and Vogondy should have a decent shot imo...

I'll give you that assessment when I see the odds in about 10 hours time.

Voeckler definitely. French never win on Bastille day so look out for other guys. Chavanel will probably attack again. Voeckler should be motivated. Vogondy, Fedrigo. Wouldn't back Boasson-Hagen. Not worth it.

Ivanov certainly can upstage them.

David Millar finished way behind today. By himself at the end - he could try something.

Marcus Burghardt tanked it it looks like - he was on fire in Switzerland