2010 Tour de France

Overall Head to Heads

6 units Roman Kreuziger over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $1.55
4 units Joaquim Rodriguez over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
6 units Andy Schleck over Frank Schleck @ $1.47
5 units Lance Armstrong over Bradley Wiggins @ $1.62
6 units Ivan Basso over Cadel Evans @ $1.60
4 units Denis Menchov over Cadel Evans @ $2

Top 10 Finish

4 units Joaquim Rodriguez @ $6
1 unit Vladimir Karpets @ $34
6 units Roman Kreuziger @ $1.91

Teams Classification H2H

7 units Bbox Bouygues Telecom over Footon Servetto @ $2.02 - Rolland, Fedrigo, Voeckler and a few others compared to a young team with half making their TDF debuts. Yes please.

4 units Liquigas over Columbia @ $1.52 - Basso, Kreuziger and Szmyd over Martin and Rogers. Yes Please.

4 units Liquigas over Rabobank @ $2.50 - This should be more like $1.85 for both. Liquigas are well over the odds.

Mountains Classification

.2 units Eros Capecchi @ $101
.2 units Matthew Lloyd @ $101
.3 units Cadel Evans @ $51
.3 units Thomas Voeckler @ $51 - If he's in the earlier breaks with some climbs on offer, then he may end up going for it.
1.5 units Egoi Martinez @ $11 - Euskaltel's stage hunter and second last year.
.5 units Amets Txurruka @ $17 - Euskaltel's other stage hunter.
.5 units Amael Moinard @ $51

Points Classification

4 units Oscar Freire over Edvald Boasson-Hagen @ $1.83 - Will EBH finish his first GT? Probably not.

6 units Tyler Farrar over Alessandro Petacchi @ $1.47 - Farrar will be more consistent than Petacchi. Better than bank interest.

There will probably be more to come. That's the start.

Hey bolar... Wat ya reckon about...

Roman Kreuziger podium finish @ $12.00

I was gonna put some KOM bets on but sportingbet offers fuck all... Might have to bet with the tab... Martinez @ $11 and Hesjedel at some ridiculous amount...

What are yout thoughts on the prologue?... Can cancellara be beaten... Martin or Evans perhaps...

Don't think Kreuziger will finish on the podium. Doesn't have the maturity yet. Maybe next year.

Contact sportingbet. Just send them an E-mail: sports@sportingbet.com.au and quote some KOM riders.

Martin has beaten Cancellara twice in time trials this year and nearly beat him in a technical Suisse one.

This is straight with not many turns so if anyone beats Cancellara, it's Martin, Wiggins or Boasson-Hagen. I'm going to wait for a few head to heads.

Hey Bolar,

Always value your insight on the Tour De France each year.. What do you think of these two bets? Leaning over..

Cavendish - Over/Under 3.5 Stage Wins

Contador - Over/Under 2.5 Stage Wins

Thanks for your time mate and Best of Luck!

Whilst Cavendish has been in crap form he should get at least 4 wins. He hasn't looked as convincing as other years though. But he's peaking for the Tour. He still has the best lead-out train in the world. What are the odds for that bet?

In regards to Contador, I would lean under 2.5 stage wins. He only won two last year. A MTF and a time trial. A similar thing could happen this year. He could win three or more but it depends on how much time he loses on stage three, if any.

Also the other thing with the Contador bet is if he's got a good lead after he wins his first stage, he'll just be on the defensive like last year and won't need to take unneccessary risks. What are the odds there?

Thanks for your insights.. It is really helpful!

Sorry I forgot to post the odds.. They are:

Cavendish

Over 3.5 Stage Wins $1.80

Under 3.5 Stage Wins $1.95

Contador -

Over 3.5 Stage Wins $1.75

Under 3.5 Stage Wins $2.00

It is with Sportstab.. They also have an Aussie Riders Stage Over/Unders:

Under 1.5 Stage Wins - $1.50

Over 1.5 Stage Wins - $2.45

Is Contador a shoe in to win it all?

Stage 3 is a cobbled stage. A lot of cobblestone sections. A featherweight like Contador may struggle. If Contador loses time, his odds will go out and then that's the chance to get on him. If he doesn't lose time, his odds will stay the same.

He should win it all but wait till after stage 3 until you back him.

I would take Cavendish over 3.5 wins. I mean if his form is there, he'll be hard to beat as usual. $1.80 is worth it.

I think you mean Contador under/over 2.5 and not 3.5. If it is actually 3.5 then bank it. If it's 2.5, it's still good value.

Aussie stage riders: This is an interesting one.

Look at the Aussies in the race. Gerrans, Lloyd, Sulzberger, Renshaw, Rogers, Evans, McEwen, O'Grady, Hansen

Rogers won't win a stage. Evans may hunt for stage wins. O'Grady is too old same with McEwen. Renshaw is a helper, as is Hansen. This is Sulzbergers' first tour. Lloyd won a stage in the Giro and Gerrans has won stages before.

I would leave it alone at those odds. If anything, I would look at the over hoping that O'Grady, Evans, Lloyd or Gerrans deliver. But I personally would leave it alone.

In regards to the cobble stage 3.

Seven-time champion Lance Armstrong has warned of impending "carnage" during the cobblestone-riddled stage three of the Tour de France.

Tuesday's 213km stage from Wanze in Belgium to Arenberg in northern France features seven cobblestone sections that threaten to cause punctures, crashes and, at worst, entirely end the hopes of several victory contenders.

Cancer survivor Armstrong is racing his final Tour campaign this month in a bid to win an eighth yellow jersey, although that looks a tough challenge.

Defending champion Alberto Contador of Spain is the overall favourite just ahead of Luxembourg's Andy Schleck. Armstrong finds himself among the handful of potential challengers.

While the 38-year-old Armstrong said it was great to be surrounded with his new RadioShack team, he reported his fears for stage three on his Twitter account.

"Done with the stage three reconnaissance. Going. To. Be. Carnage," the American said.

The Tour organisers admitted they wanted to shake the race up as early as possible in a bid to introduce drama into a first week of racing that is often criticised.

After a first stage from Rotterdam to Brussels on Sunday, when the peloton could be buffeted by vicious coastal winds, stage three will be the next big test.

Several victory contenders have reconnoitred the stage in a bid to get a feel for the cobblestones, which are normally used on big one-day classics such as the Paris-Roubaix.

However some teams, including Garmin-Transitions, refused to do so in the belief that finding the best position possible in race conditions Tuesday will be key to emerging with hopes unscathed.

Nevertheless the team's manager, former pro Jonathan Vaughters, admitted that no one is safe from the unpredictable threat of the cobbles.

"Someone will lose (all chance of winning) the race that day, I just don't know who it's going to be," said Vaughters.

"It could be Lance, could be Contador, could be (Andy) Schleck."

As I say, wait till after that stage before you back Contador. You would be crazy backing Contador straight away.

Hey Bolar!

Thanks for your response.

Sorry I did mean Over 2.5 for Contador.. The Australian Stage Riders is interesting but as you said it is best to leave it alone as too much doubt..

Looking towards the Cavendish bet... If he stays fit and doesn't get injured I think he should get at least 4...

It seems like you really know your Tour De France so here's hoping to a succesful season

I'm going to take Pierre Rolland top frenchman @ $15 (Sportingbet).

Usually this goes down to a lucky break. Le Mevel and Casar got time last year due to a break. Rolland tried a few breaks.

The difference with Rolland is he was the only Frenchman last year to not benefit from a break and he still finished in 22nd position.

The Frenchmen last year.

10th: Christophe Le Mevel 14:25 - Breakaway
12th: Sandy Casar 17:19 - Breakaway
16th: Stephane Goubet 22:29 - Breakaway (Not racing this year)
20st: Sylvain Chavanel 34:09 - Non Breakaway
22nd: Pierre Rolland 37:44 - Non breakaway

Rolland finished eighth in the Dauphine - a good Tour de France leadup. He's been looking okay this year and certainly reports from France say he's in the best form of his life. He's only young so at $15, it's worth a punt. Obviously, I will be hoping he gets himself in a breakaway at some point but I think he'll finish within 20 minutes of the winner this year which means it could be a good bet.

These are my final overall bets. Naturally, if something else comes up, I will re-post.

Overall Head to Heads

7 units Roman Kreuziger over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $1.55
6 units Joaquim Rodriguez over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.10
6 units Andy Schleck over Frank Schleck @ $1.47
4 units Lance Armstrong over Bradley Wiggins @ $1.62
6 units Ivan Basso over Cadel Evans @ $1.60
4 units Denis Menchov over Cadel Evans @ $2

Top 10 Finish

4 units Joaquim Rodriguez @ $6
1 unit Vladimir Karpets @ $34
6 units Roman Kreuziger @ $1.91

Teams Classification H2H

8 units Bbox Bouygues Telecom over Footon Servetto @ $2.02 - Rolland, Fedrigo, Voeckler and a few others compared to a young team with half making their TDF debuts. Yes please.

4 units Liquigas over Columbia @ $1.52 - Basso, Kreuziger and Szmyd over Martin and Rogers. Yes Please.

4 units Liquigas over Rabobank @ $2.50 - This should be more like $1.85 for both. Liquigas are well over the odds.

Mountains Classification

.2 units Eros Capecchi @ $101
.2 units Matthew Lloyd @ $101
.3 units Cadel Evans @ $51
.3 units Thomas Voeckler @ $51 - If he's in the earlier breaks with some climbs on offer, then he may end up going for it.
1.5 units Egoi Martinez @ $11 - Euskaltel's stage hunter and second last year.
.5 units Amets Txurruka @ $17 - Euskaltel's other stage hunter.
.5 units Amael Moinard @ $51

Points Classification

4 units Oscar Freire over Edvald Boasson-Hagen @ $1.83 - Will EBH finish his first GT? Probably not.

6 units Tyler Farrar over Alessandro Petacchi @ $1.47 - Farrar will be more consistent than Petacchi. Better than bank interest.

Stage Wins

5 units Cavendish over 3.5 @ $1.80

Group Betting

1 unit Sanchez over Armstrong, Wiggins, Basso, Evans @ $14

Top Frenchman

1 unit Pierre Rolland @ $15

Le Mevel, Casar etc will probably get in a lucky break and get time but Rolland is the better Frenchman here. He's displayed that he's climbing better than last year. He finished around 20th last year and he didn't benefit from a break. He did try a few breaks. As he's the better Frenchman here, I just think it's worthwhile putting a small bet on him. Hopefully he does benefit from a break. Bbox are certainly confident in him to produce a high result.

Bolar -- first off all, what bookies do you use besides bet365?? Then, have you checked out betsafe's win/not win a stage??
Belive Boasson is overpriced at 1.65 compared to Hushovd at 1.75 with the beating Hushovd gave Boasson during the Norway Tour...
* Would you give Kreuziger a shot at winning a stage at 7.00?
* Basso at 3.40?
* CA Sørensen at 6.00 and N. Sørensen at 7.50 (both of them can pick a win now and then...)

Love Tony Martin at 2.70 with the prouloge counting, Andy Schleck at 2.70 as I belive he takes one what so ever and LL Sanches at 3.00 is a bit tempting, but want to hear what you think first...
Also think there is big value in Andy to just wear the Yellow jersey for a day at 6.30...

Like you picks btw... Let's have a great TdF

Might be a key for tomorrow..:

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/big-names-among-early-starters-for-tour-de-france-prologue

I use Sportingbet Australia, Sportingbet England, Unibet, Bwin, Bet365

What is the Boasson-Hagen v Hushovd bet you are talking about?
..
Basso won't win a stage. Not sure about Kreuziger. Probably not.

One of the Sorensen's could win a stage.

Luis Leon Sanchez to win a stage is a good one. He is wanting another stage victory. He's 5.50 Sportingbet Australia.

The other guy that could win a stage is Amets Txurruka - He will be in a lot of breakaways. He's around $11 in Australia. Not sure about other books.

Also look at the Bbox boys winning a stage. Fedrigo, Voeckler etc.

Thx for the answere and advices
Was a bad explanation by me --- what I was trying to get out was that imo Boasson is way overvalued while Hushovs should should take 2 stages imo --- leaning Hushovd to win a stage at a good price and Boasson not to (even though it's hard as im rooting for him -- finaly a young norwegian talent again...)

Had Txurruka on my fantasy team along with Martinez, but might take Sanchez instead of Basso and it don't allows more than 2 from the same team, so.... Got any advice on that??

btw, love the value on Martin to win tomorrow at 5.30 so thats a shure bet for me... Also might jump on a "split-bet" with one on Hushovd an one on Cavendish if the price is right on stage 1.... Belive those two will open strongest while Farrar will be flying under the radar and picking up points here and there to start the tour...
Hushovd is probably in the best for of his life heading into a TdF and have been looking strong in the recent races...

Think I'll tail most of our futures and add Hushovd + LLS to win a stage and maby the two Sørensen's, but not shure on those yet...

Will Team Radioshack win the Team Classification?
07:15 AM	3053 Yes	-117
	3054 No	+100

weird numbers here no?

BOL to all

Kreuziger said it's going to be hard for him to win a stage. I doubt he'll win one.

I wouldn't touch the sprinters either but that's just me.

The only sprinter I'm willing to touch is Cavendish

What weird numbers are you talking about? I can't understand those odds. I only work in decimal.

Prologue Leans

Prologue Winner
Tony Martin @ $6.00

Head to Heads
Bradley Wiggins over Lars Boom @ $1.60
Cadel Evans over David Millar @ $1.87

Might put these two in a multi...