Posted:
#201
Txurruka will finish 2nd behind Haussler. The pick over Feillu was nice money.
Haussler is definetly crazy, he's going so fast on the downhill even in the rain, what a day for him.
2009 Tour de France
Posted:
#202
I ended up 2-1 with 1.2 units profit.
Hincapie beat Knees by a couple of spot.
Moncoutie finished 13 minutes in front of Garate
Txurruka rode with inspiration and beat up Martinez by 3-4 minutes.
Record : 25-37, -51.6 units
Hope to get my back in the next week.
Hushovd took back the green jersey with his 12 points this morning. Cavendish will probably win his last stage tomorrow and then quit, he got lost today finishing 23.44 minutes behind the winner on a soso rainy stage.
Hushovd and Farrar to rank, you'll get them @ 5-6
Posted:
#203
Only one interesting matchup so far...
Bonnet over Van Hummel @ 1.935
I feel Van Hummel will quit the race in the middle of the stage tomorrow. It's the last plain day before the Alpes and he's definetly not strong enough to climb, the end of the Tour for him.
Risking a bit more than 6 units to win 6.
Posted:
#205
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
Cavendish's aim now is to win Paris. He won't quit in the mountains, he'll battle through!
I've been thinking the same for quite a while now even though I faded Cav in the green jersey competition. Now, the only way we get to save our asses is if Hushovd pulls a miracle and wins it.
Posted:
#206
Okay!
.6 unit Ballan @ $26
.6 unit Millar @ $51
.6 unit Pineau @ $51
.1 unit Roy @ $67
.2 unit Ivanov @ $81
.1 unit Zabriskie @ $81
.2 unit Ignatiev @ $101
.1 unit Vogondy @ $101
.1 unit Bonnet @ $101
.1 unit Casar @ $101
.2 unit O'Grady @ $101
.1 unit Geslin @ $101
.1 unit Wegmann @ $101
.1 unit Auge @ $126
.1 unit Botscharov @ $126
.1 unit De Jonghe @ $126
.1 unit Dessel @ $126
.2 unit Maaskant @ $126
.3 unit Devolder @ $126
.1 unit Rosseler @ $126
.6 unit Millar @ $51
.6 unit Pineau @ $51
.1 unit Roy @ $67
.2 unit Ivanov @ $81
.1 unit Zabriskie @ $81
.2 unit Ignatiev @ $101
.1 unit Vogondy @ $101
.1 unit Bonnet @ $101
.1 unit Casar @ $101
.2 unit O'Grady @ $101
.1 unit Geslin @ $101
.1 unit Wegmann @ $101
.1 unit Auge @ $126
.1 unit Botscharov @ $126
.1 unit De Jonghe @ $126
.1 unit Dessel @ $126
.2 unit Maaskant @ $126
.3 unit Devolder @ $126
.1 unit Rosseler @ $126
.2 unit Avermaet @ $81
Good luck!
Posted:
#208
.2 unit Ivanov @ $81
That's what I call a pro capper. What an attack and a nice win by the russian. You pick up 16 units with this win, well done.
Someone must explain why Columbia are so stupid. Cavendish had zero chance to pick up 5 places over Hushovd, why did they try anything for the sprint ? They raced in a jealous way and Hincapie missed his chance to wear the yellow jersey for one day.
Bonnet ranked 39th and my pick is a winner good for 6 units
Record : 26-37, -45.6 units
Tomorrow will be a nice uphill finish, I hope for 80 % or more in my selections.
Posted:
#209
Thanks Nick! Yeah it was good. The profit I gained today was over 10 units.
They did it for a reason Nick
Cavendish picked up a point which means he trails by 4.
Assuming that Hushovd now doesn't take anymore points, All Cav needs to do is win Paris and the green jersey is his......
This will go down to bonus seconds on the last stage I would feel for this green jersey. It's the perfect showdown now - mind you, Tuesday's stage could be easy for Hushovd to gain more points anyway.
Posted:
#210
It's interesting - that's the second time this tour I have plucked it out.
The first was .2 uniut on Voeckler @ $101. The next was .2 on Ivanov @ $81.
Next chance for a break like this will be either a) the day before the time trial (i havn't seen the parcours yet for that stage) or b) the day before Ventoux.
Posted:
#211
I've been looking at the standing and Cavendish has been disqualified. He intentionaly tried to crash Hushovd in the fence with less than 10 meters in the race, if you can find the video it's obvious. Therefore, he lost all his points and Hushovd took the 13th place. Cavendish was relied to the 154th place with the same time as the pack.
He's now 18 points back will an illegal move on a bunch sprint. Columbia lost the yellow by their fault and the green belongs to Hushovd. I don't think they can argue on this one, Cavendish will go home tonight, he has very little chance to take 18 points on Hushovd with only 2 plains stage and for sure Hushovd will have more point than Cavendish on stage 19.
Posted:
#213
n1ck - Cav won't go home.
Columbia's goals at the start of the tour = Stage wins and Cav to finish in Paris. If they finish in paris with or without the green jersey it won't matter.
Cav said his goal is to make paris and he doesn't care about green. He will learn from this.
Cav said in his follow up interview the other day after he won his 4th. "There's only one stage I want now, Paris."
Cav knows the green is lost but he'll learn from it for next year. But he will try to make paris. He won't pull out.
Posted:
#216
The only way I can win my H2H on Freire is by Cavendish going home. He had in mind to win the green jersey for sure because he's the best sprinter in the world. If he reachs Paris, no one can't beat him, you should place a huge play on him @ 2.00 on Unibet, they're offering Cavendish to win and the option that he must start for the bet to stand.
We'll what he can do tomorrow.
About tomorrow, are you backing Contador for a stage win ?
Everyone knows Evans must attack and make up so time, Sastre has the power to take some time as well.
Lance looks strong but he lost his lieutenant Leipheimer, who can help him up there ?
Posted:
#217
I'm pretty confident in my plays for tomorrow. I could have taken some guess like I did for the 1st uphill finish but I've lost too much, less risk and more winners.
Moncoutie hasn't shown his talent so far. I don't think he's strong enough and there's no way he can win the Polka Dot jersey. Pellizotti finished 3rd in the Giro and he's in route to take the KOM jersey.
5 units @ 1.862 Pellizotti over Moncoutie
Menchov is among the top climber in the world. He's scared since he crashed but climbing isn't a problem. He needs to take time tomorrow to get back in the top 10. I'm backing him on two plays :
5 units over Astarloza @ 1.581( Tired and not strong enough, will be about 2 min behind )
5 units over Kreuziger @ 1.909 ( Too young, he will let his leader go )
Nibali is the team leader and Kreuziger will help him as far as he can.
5 units Nibali over Kreuziger @ 1.75
Contador, Sastre and Evans are the big names. They will probably be part of the top 5 with Shleck.
That's why I'm backing Evans over Armstrong @ 1.699 for 5 units. I know Lance his strong but he'll wait till Mont Ventoux to take the yellow jersey to Contador's hands.
5 units on Sastre over Vandevelde @ 1.752 There's good value for a man at the top of shape versus an injured one. Sastre won the Tour last year and will probably fallow his ex teamates. Vandevelde has Wiggins as a teamate and I have serious doubts about him.
Enjoy the race, he's going to be nice and the 1st explanation between big leaders.
Posted:
#218
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:
The only way I can win my H2H on Freire is by Cavendish going home. He had in mind to win the green jersey for sure because he's the best sprinter in the world. If he reachs Paris, no one can't beat him, you should place a huge play on him @ 2.00 on Unibet, they're offering Cavendish to win and the option that he must start for the bet to stand.
We'll what he can do tomorrow.
About tomorrow, are you backing Contador for a stage win ?
Everyone knows Evans must attack and make up so time, Sastre has the power to take some time as well.
Lance looks strong but he lost his lieutenant Leipheimer, who can help him up there ?
On Cavendish - yeah, after today, he will be wanting to reach Paris to get another one over Farrar. It's tempting to do that big play now - but what of his odds when the stage comes around? Still around $2? Hmmm, I'll think on that. The only way Cavendish doesn't go home is if he is eliminated.
Posted:
#221
No doubt the survivers of the break will take this stage as noone will force the tempo till the last climb and Verbier isn't really steep. I like Cancellara to try the break.
.3 unit Cancellara @ $126
.2 unit Devolder @ $126
This young Colombian rider is going to be a gun. He might try the break too.
.5 unit Uran @ $51
Good luck!
Posted:
#223
Final Bets Tonight!
Head to Head!
1 unit Gerdemann over Monfort @ $2.28
5 unit Sastre over Armstrong @ $1.85
10 units Sastre over Vande Velde @ $1.72
2 unit Kreuzger over Nibali @ $2.10
5 unit Sastre over F Schleck @ $1.85
Win Market!
3 units Sastre @ $13
2.8 units Moncoutie @ $17
1 unit Pellizotti @ $17
.2 units Cancellara @ $126
.2 units Devolder @ $126
.2 units Rogers @ $101
.2 units Arroyo @ $81
.2 units Martinez @ $81
.2 units Astraloza @ $67
.2 units Kreuizger @ $67
.2 units Moreau @ $67
.2 units Txurruka @ $51
.2 units Anton @ $51
.2 units Uran @ $41
32 units staked. I stand to lose one of my profitable Cavendish days if Sastre fucks up tonight or if one of these long shots don't get up if he does fuck up. Bring it on!!!!!
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