The Lippsman Split

@CallmeBookie

When I posted it did not have an appro line. I now have +120 but Nylander likely put so not a qualifier. If nylander is in then it would qualify but consider this. If nylander is in why wouldn't the line move from +120? So highly doubt this will qualify. 

May God be watching over Lippsman. I miss him too Julie.

I am on the split for a cool 0-4 so far...lol. But there are two rounds so lets chip away at some of that tonight and tommorrow. Don't really remember a home dominance like this in hockey playoffs to begin things.

@BooBunny

I can't remember the exact stat but I think I heard last night first time since 1970something home teams open 6-0 lol. The first year I try this strategy haha I still have faith!

[Quote: Originally Posted by pcollins]Quote Originally Posted by pcollins: Hilarious system but I’m in. All these years and I don’t think I’ve seen it but it will make handicapping very easy this playoff system. It’s on me now but thanks for the posts..  ouch!Slow start. 0-2 -$400 but sticking  with it. let’s go dogs![/.                    OK 0-6.  -$1200 so far. I may be missing some rules or qualifying terms but sticking with it tonight. Believe it hasn’t started 6-0 home team since 1978, is that right? C’mon dogs.

@pcollins

Yeap that's the stat I heard I was referring too above 

Are we sure this works lol

NYI absolutely fall apart, +200 would've brought us back near the surface....

0-5, -5u

Only real dog win so far is TOR but doesn't qualify as Nylander out. 

@emoltzan

 Worst I have seen it in years that is for sure....

@GASportsDoc

What a coincidence, my first time lol. I trust but man it's a torturous start that's certain. Going to need VGK to salvage tonight because LAK is not doing it. 

Hope tmr will cash in on some splits. Not going well so far. 

@Ju_lie

Nope, officially 1-6 now. Isles was a huge bad beat at +200. Would've brought us back near the surface at least. 

Tonight's qualifiers:

WSH (this doesn't even feel right)

TBL 

NSH 

Let me know if I'm incorrect, thanks! 

all good things come to an end eventually

So, not sure on Washington in the strict adherence to the original entrance criteria of Lippsman formula.  Nicklas Backstrom is their #1 Center, but he has basically missed the entire season, so is he truly a top 6 player not in action...?  

I took them Game 1 and will take them again Game 2 because I think the spirit of the Split would say that he is not considered as part of that top 6 due to missing 70+ games due to injury.  But I am also not putting up a full unit bet b/c at +245 you do not need to... 

Keep the faith--

I locked NSH +133 this morning, Demko out and now NSH is +115. I'm not sure how this was handled or scored in the past? 

Any veterans please chime in, thanks! 

there's always gonna be grey areas with this. Number one starting goaltender > than a first liner IMO

@Osser

I definitely agree. However this is on the fade team so NSH is no longer +120 or longer. I grabbed them at +133 based on the parameters.  Does it still count as a split play? Either way I secured value and will obviously not cash out, but just curious for tracking purposes. I also grabbed NSH series +210. 

Tonight 

i would say it's a no play but that's just my opinion. Again grey area.

The +120 was based on the value of the price of the dog only.  +120 puts you at implied probability of 45% and I am guessing that Lipps went back and did the math to find the min value of the dog price from years prior to ensure you profit, or at minimum break even based on many splits occured vs all games total.

So if you get it at +133, it meets the criteria.  Now that the line is in +110 range, it is below that min value, and the system would recommend to not bet it.

@dyamarik

“If the dog loses the first game you take them no matter what the line is in game 2 as long as there are no 1st liner injuries”

@r0lltide7

Shoot you're right, forgot that tidbit. Either way I'm not cashing out +133 on a +110 line lol....

@r0lltide7

 yeah and that too

So I should still take Nashville at +105?

@Ramanujan

Well yes butmi suppose this is a bit late. You can see discussion above. 

Officially 2-8 now. 

Tonight's plays:

DAL -1 -105

LAK +163