Posted:
#251
Thanks for the bump
Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
The Lippsman Split
Posted:
#253
Ran a model on this that looked at all playoff series. Simple rules - bet the dog in series game 1. Bet the dog in series game 2 if they lost the first game.
Overall very positive numbers but has had down years, though the last one was followed by several nice up years.
Great work - looking forward to the upcoming playoffs
Record: 184-237 43.7%
Units: +22.2
ROI: 5.3%
2023: 8-11 -1.29u -6.8% ROI
2022: 11-6 +10.25u 59.7% ROI
2021: 10-14 +1.35u 5.6% ROI
2020: 10-12 +3.25u 14.8% ROI
2019: 20-19 +6.6u 16.9% ROI
2018: 12-12 +4.22u 17.6% ROI
2017: 10-14 -0.02u 0% ROI
2016: 10-8 +6.20u 34.4% ROI
Posted:
#255
playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and D) or (series game = 2 and p:L and D))
SDQL
did not do the 120 or better but that's an easy modification to
playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120))
which went 128-196 (39.5%) +0.88u 0.3% ROI
Posted:
#256
@emoltzan
As long as their is high confidence that the top line injury rule is not invoked, I think Lipps advice was to play the best line you can get. The system relied only upon taking the dog Game 1 with no injuries top 3, and ignored everything else.
@MrECapps
Lippsman's system I believe only applied to first two playoff rounds if I recall correctly - not sure if you can modify your query of your database. Very interesting data you've provided - thanks.
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
Posted:
#265
@dyamarik
Will look into the first two series only numbers later today if possible. Also note that the way I tested it, a team could have been a slight fav in game 1, lost that game, then come back as a dog in game 2 and for my test, that would be a play on. Not sure if Lippsman would have been on those.
Posted:
#266
Didn't have data on which playoff round but managed a rough estimate by adding that the team's game 9 games ago was NOT a playoff game.
playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120)) and ppppppppp:playoffs = 0
110-153 (41.8%) +16.91u +6.4% ROI
Posted:
#267
@emoltzan
Lipps System only had 4 req'ts:
1. bet dog in game 1 if rules 3 & 4 below apply
2. bet dog again in game 2 if dog lost Game 1 and still meets rule 3 & 4
3. dogs have to be +120 or more
4. the no injury to top Fwd Line rule
In his system, waiting for better odds would likely be encouraged, b/c the fundamental angle is to bet +120 or higher to reduce the win % needed to make a profit.
At +120 or better, your implied odds win % is 45.5%, so if you win 46% or more of your bets, you guarantee a profit (assuming that every game was exactly at +120 odds). If you throw in higher odds, that drives down the win % needed to make a profit.
I already took STL at +160, as I think the market has stabilized in the +155 to +160 range. If I find something better, and that book allows me to cancel the +160 wager, that is what I will do, and grab the better line. Not a lot of books do that without a penalty.
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
Posted:
#268
@dyamarik
Right I'm we'll aware of odds and implied probability for break-even etc. I was more curious if we expect it to move a certain way, but that of course is a skill that's not dialed or one would always beat the closing line lol. But anyway yeah, I had 160 available yesterday but I think 157 now. I was also more so curious how early Lipp would be these typically.
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