The Lippsman Split

Thanks for the bump

Looks like STL +156 is a play right now and will definitely be a play. However I'm not sure when we should place it or what type of line movement we can expect. 

Ran a model on this that looked at all playoff series.  Simple rules - bet the dog in series game 1.  Bet the dog in series game 2 if they lost the first game.

Overall very positive numbers but has had down years, though the last one was followed by several nice up years.

Great work - looking forward to the upcoming playoffs

Record: 184-237 43.7%

Units: +22.2

ROI: 5.3%

2023: 8-11 -1.29u -6.8% ROI

2022: 11-6 +10.25u 59.7% ROI

2021: 10-14 +1.35u 5.6% ROI

2020: 10-12 +3.25u 14.8% ROI

2019: 20-19 +6.6u 16.9% ROI

2018: 12-12 +4.22u 17.6% ROI

2017: 10-14 -0.02u 0% ROI

2016: 10-8 +6.20u 34.4% ROI

@MrECapps

How'd you do this analysis? TYVM 

Did you factor in the +120 or better odds?

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and D) or (series game = 2 and p:L and D))

SDQL

did not do the 120 or better but that's an easy modification to 

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120))

which went 128-196 (39.5%) +0.88u 0.3% ROI

@emoltzan

 As long as their is high confidence that the top line injury rule is not invoked, I think Lipps advice was to play the best line you can get.  The system relied only upon taking the dog Game 1 with no injuries top 3, and ignored everything else.

@MrECapps

 Lippsman's system I believe only applied to first two playoff rounds if I recall correctly - not sure if you can modify your query of your database.  Very interesting data you've provided - thanks. 

@dyamarik

So do we take STL now? I have +160 available

Pinnacle $1250 limits and 2.9% hold currently

+154/-175

Or did he typically wait till day of

Need an NHL line movement expert to weigh in (weeb)

Looks like they opened around +145 so WPG must've taken some steam

Rip Lippsman. Always appreciated  his theory and always serves true

Lipps ..legend..

you guys forget .... playoffs...-1 and -1.5 work really well ..open net galore bet the favororite of up to -140/150 in first game..then adjust 

fyi this system falls apart after the second round...

RIP Lippsman ?? Great to see this post bumped and remembered here on the hockey forum as well as his Avatar  

You're dearly missed here brother and  you will never be forgotten our King of the NHL 

Mr Lippsman 

@emoltzan

 Thanks for bumping the split.

@ChitownPicks

Np sir 

Excited 

@dyamarik

 Will look into the first two series only numbers later today if possible.  Also note that the way I tested it, a team could have been a slight fav in game 1, lost that game, then come back as a dog in game 2 and for my test, that would be a play on.  Not sure if Lippsman would have been on those. 

Didn't have data on which playoff round but managed a rough estimate by adding that the team's game 9 games ago was NOT a playoff game.  

playoffs = 1 and ((series game = 1 and line >= 120) or (series game = 2 and p:L and p:line >= 120 and line >= 120)) and ppppppppp:playoffs = 0

110-153 (41.8%) +16.91u +6.4% ROI

@emoltzan

 Lipps System only had 4 req'ts:

 1. bet dog in game 1 if rules 3 & 4 below apply

 2. bet dog again in game 2 if dog lost Game 1 and still meets rule 3 & 4

 3. dogs have to be +120 or more

 4. the no injury to top Fwd Line rule

In his system, waiting for better odds would likely be encouraged, b/c the fundamental angle is to bet +120 or higher to reduce the win % needed to make a profit. 

At +120 or better, your implied odds win % is 45.5%, so if you win 46% or more of your bets, you guarantee a profit (assuming that every game was exactly at +120 odds).  If you throw in higher odds, that drives down the win % needed to make a profit.

I already took STL at +160, as I think the market has stabilized in the +155 to +160 range.  If I find something better, and that book allows me to cancel the +160 wager, that is what I will do, and grab the better line.  Not a lot of books do that without a penalty. 

@dyamarik

Right I'm we'll aware of odds and implied probability for break-even etc. I was more curious if we expect it to move a certain way, but that of course is a skill that's not dialed or one would always beat the closing line lol. But anyway yeah, I had 160 available yesterday but I think 157 now. I was also more so curious how early Lipp would be these typically. 

I stand corrected, I have 167 available. Looks like WPG must be taking fair amount of action. 

You Live on Lipps enjoy the NHL Playoffs!

Dallas up to +119 

I'm not sure of their standard first line though. I see Robertson DTD but assuming he'll be ready. 

That would work as well! I don't imagine they'll move much further. 

Currently I have:

STL +170

DAL +122

Just need 1!

Dang Dallas moved big wrong direction 

Robertson out, this would disqualify Dallas I suppose? No cashout available for me unfortunately.