Posted:
#1101
General where are you, early games already started.
General Sharps 2014-2015 NHL Picks
Posted:
#1102
Quote Originally Posted by HockeyGuruNHL:
Hi guys, tough night. Posting this as General is having a hangover from last night. He will be on soon to post todays plays. To recap yesterday:
Hi guys, tough night. Posting this as General is having a hangover from last night. He will be on soon to post todays plays. To recap yesterday:
PHI PL -1.5 2.42 (+142) - LOSE $100
CHI@DET TIE 3.88 (+288) - LOSE $100
CHI@DET UNDER 5 2.20 (+120) - PUSH
PIT@TOR OVER 5.5 1.74 (-135) - LOSE $100
FLA ML 2.00 (+100) - LOSE $100
PHX@VAN OVER 5.5 2.23 (+123) - LOSE $100
Overall cost of single bets: $600
Overall winnings: $100
Overall profit: -$500
Parlay:
PHI PL -1.5 2.52 (+152)
PIT@TOR OVER 5.5 1.74 (-135)
VAN ML 1.50 (-200)
6.57:1, +557, Bet $100 to win $657, +$557 profit - LOSE $100
2014-2015 NHL Season Single Record to Date: 80W - 95L
Method: Flat betting Single picks 1 Unit ($100)
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,424
Total Single Bet Profit in $: +$424
Total Single Bet Profit in Units: +4.24
Thus far in the 2014-2015 NHL season, overall Single bet profit is +4.24 Units, or $424 flat betting $100 per pick.
Parlay Record is 0W-14L, -$1400, -14.00 Units.
Where are your picks and your thread "guru" lol
Posted:
#1105
Quote Originally Posted by duchart:
An impressive respnse, well said. and a dead give away to the defination of his own words, such as 'guess' and the phrase 'figure it out' what you have here is an extremely dis-grunted degenerate, who followed the thread early, and lost, complained, then activated an alias, so he could publish this type of hypocricy; going into the third and final paragraph his emphisis on Sharp shows nothing but envy (wishing he could be the General, and this is his thread) in his direction, this screen name, whoever he is, needs mental treatment based on his own words. You may also want to make a notation to post #1084 posted by rivermonster, "I totally agree with this" this in itself, is self describing the poster (it takes one to know one) aliases don't fool anyone, read the forum for 7 years and you pick up on this, you are what your screen name dictates, nothing more, your words are your personality, you don't think of the 250k hits that the forum receives daily; that everone is baffled by an alias's bullschit? with the lone exception of rivermonsterz ref: #1084. who paid tribune to his commentary, now you understand more than before about the forum; you said exactly what I would have, unfortunately the effort of a response, was in my point of view; 'undeserving'
I understand that it is a possible outcome and I am sure your system said that it could happen. But I would bet that you did not publish that happening as your choice for what was going to happen also I am sure that your system also said that it was highly unlikely to happen.
and if you did call it send me to the link i would love to read what you have to say in the future!
Posted:
#1111
Quote Originally Posted by duchart:
I understand that it is a possible outcome and I am sure your system said that it could happen. But I would bet that you did not publish that happening as your choice for what was going to happen also I am sure that your system also said that it was highly unlikely to happen.
and if you did call it send me to the link i would love to read what you have to say in the future!
Well, since you asked.....
I don't know if the link to my pending picks will work, but here goes:
Completed picks: https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/recordsbydate.aspx?ur=692344&sportID=6
Pending picks: https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/pending.aspx?userid=692344&sportID=6
Disclaimer: This is my first year capping anything with my system. It is still calibrating a good betting threshold. It is slowly improving and should be running full steam within a few weeks.
I don't have anything to say about my picks since my computer program makes them for me. I can say that I am a trained artificial intelligence coder and find the prospect of winning at sports betting very intriguing.
Well, I guess I do have this to say about betting on any sport: statistics over a long period of time are not "incorrect", but they fail to take into account the daily fluctuations of the players' psychologies and emotions. If you believe that the game is even mostly legitimate (i.e. referees do not determine the outcomes of games), then if each player played consistently well each game, the best team would go 82-0 and the worst team would go 0-82. That is not real life. In real life, players get angry, overconfident, lazy, tired, and a whole bunch of other stuff. That's why we have terms like "hot", "cold", "in the zone", etc. My system just tries to quantify all that stuff and make money off of it.
Besides that, it's no secret who the better team is. The favorite is the better team given all the obvious circumstances. Bookies have that concept on lockdown. Just look at their record over a long period of time. That is proof positive that trying to pick the better team is not a worthwhile venture. Right now, I am only beating that (given my current calibration) by 2.5% per game, so there is not a lot of room for success either.
I should also mention that I do recommend flat betting each pick. Gotta agree with the General on that one. Over time it should all even out, but in the short term, better to risk the same amount for the same expected value.
Posted:
#1112
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
An impressive respnse, well said. and a dead give away to the defination of his own words, such as 'guess' and the phrase 'figure it out' what you have here is an extremely dis-grunted degenerate, who followed the thread early, and lost, complained, then activated an alias
An impressive respnse, well said. and a dead give away to the defination of his own words, such as 'guess' and the phrase 'figure it out' what you have here is an extremely dis-grunted degenerate, who followed the thread early, and lost, complained, then activated an alias
Excuse me? I've been on covers since July perhaps. This is not an alias, this is a real person, and I have never used General's picks.
My words "guess" and "figure it out" show a type of realism about betting on sports that comes from having a rigorous mathematics background. No one knows which team will win! Especially in professional sports, these guys are all very good and mostly evenly matched. I think it is easy to overestimate how good a team is based on a very small sample of outcomes. That is what the books WANT you to do. They want you to think that this or that game is a "lock" and that the "cappers fell asleep on this one". Trust me, they wouldn't be in business if they couldn't predict the outcome of games between a +-2.5% margin of error in the long run. If you want to win, you have to accept their expertise as a given and slice and dice the numbers in a way that gives you an edge.
Mathematically, that is the only way to win. Picking the "better team" will not yield a profit.
Posted:
#1114
There is variance in sports wagering, hockey is a game where anyone can win any night. The fact that the General has been able to keep in the GREEN, not including his parlays of course is a feat in itself. We are approaching the 25% mark of the season and he is profiting. There is a loooong way to go and when game 82 comes around the General will be up a nice profit, I'm quite confident in saying that.
People expect 'easy money' by following this thread, it's never easy and judgment day doesn't come until the Stanley Cup is awarded so cut the guy some slack, sit tight and watch for the turnaround.....it's coming!
Posted:
#1116
Kick in the nuts night going 0-5, 0-1. The last two days make a sports better make them question their skills. It will put doubt in your mind. You may say "F$^^ it" and tilt. You may quit. You may make excuses. The bottom line is I lost big. I will rebound and I will
turn it around. I do not give up. I know it's about the long run and these days, these weeks can NOT rattle you.
PHI PL -1.5 2.42 (+142) - LOSE $100
CHI@DET TIE 3.88 (+288) - LOSE $100
CHI@DET UNDER 5 2.20 (+120) - push
PIT@TOR OVER 5.5 1.74 (-135) - LOSE $100
FLA ML 2.00 (+100) - LOSE $100
PHX@VAN OVER 5.5 2.23 (+123) - LOSE $100
Overall cost of bets: $500
Overall winnings: $0
Overall profit: -$500, -5 units
Parlay:
PHI PL -1.5 2.52 (+152)
PIT@TOR OVER 5.5 1.74 (-135)
VAN ML 1.50 (-200)
6.57:1, +557, Bet $100 to win $657, +$557 profit - Lose $100
2014-2015 NHL Season Single Record to Date: 80W - 100L
Method: Flat betting Single picks 1 Unit ($100)
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,424
Total Single Bet Profit in $: +$424
Total Single Bet Profit in Units: +4.24 units
Thus far in the 2014-2015 NHL season, overall Single bet profit is +4.24 Units, or $424 flat betting $100 per pick
Parlay Record is 0W-13L, -$1300, -14.00 Units
Strongest Play of the Day Record: 1W-1L, -$20, -0.20 Units
Posted:
#1118
The reason why I have not updated last nights record is because I had a busy day. I have 3 kids, two in university and a wife that is obsessed with cleaning.
Having a bad night, or week, and losing 5-10 units doesn't phase me. I am a professional. I take it like a professional. I can take a 10% hit to my bankroll and not bat a sweat.
There have been some tough losses, but what can you do. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
When I first signed up to covers, I really thought there were a lot of professionals here doing what I do. What I have learned is there is 10% professionals, doing it properly, and understanding variance. The other 90% are degenerate betters that bet 10-25% of their bankroll on plays. That complain after a bad night. They do this because they don't follow bankroll management. They don't think about the long run.
Listen, I am not forcing anybody to bet my picks. They are posted and I am just here to chat with and talk to people about the profession. I am sorry if you lost money tailing, but if you cannot understand that there are ups and downs to this business you should not gamble.
Posted:
#1121
Thank you tomy, oilcountry, sfgiants, sportsnetwork, ducahrt, and others that understand this grind.
Sorry I missed the early games. Some person stole my daughters laptop and her room mates laptop from their residence. Had to go and pick up another laptop. She lost all her lecture notes too. I wish I was young enough to find these person and kick their butt.
Posted:
#1122
Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk:
Modifying the way you calculate your "Current Bankroll" to not include parlays when it goes negative does not scream professionalism.
Modifying the way you calculate your "Current Bankroll" to not include parlays when it goes negative does not scream professionalism.
If you bothered to read the thread, you would see I have said NUMEROUS times these are NOT parlays I bet. These are just my best guess parlays. I was asked by many people to post them because they just want to bet for action. That is why the record is separate.
It blows my mind how stupid you are. This isn't the first time you made false accusations. Why don't you get a life instead of try to attack others without merit. I feel sorry for you because I know you probably bet your last cash advance on one of my plays and lost and are just venting. It's ok. I forgive you.
Posted:
#1124
Today's Plays: Saturday November 15th, 2014 - All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.
Flat bet 1 unit, $100 each.
NYR@PIT OVER 5.5 2.11 (+111)
NJ ML 1.95 (-105)
MTL ML 1.63 (-160)
TOR@BUF OVER 5.5 2.13 (+113)
TOR PL -1.5 2.47 (+147)
WPG@NAS UNDER 5 1.98 (-102)
SJ PL -1.5 2.96 (+196)
NYI@TB OVER 5.5 1.78
TB PL -1.5 2.75 (+175)
STL PL -1.5 2.52 (+152)
OTT ML 2.02 (+102)
Parlay:
NJ ML 1.95 (-105)
TOR ML 1.52 (-193)
SJ ML 1.68 (-147)
TB ML 1.60 (-166)
STL ML 1.52 (-190)
OTT ML 2.02 (+102)
24.46:1, +2346, Bet $100 to win $2446, $2346 profit
Good luck guys.
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