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To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Koaj, Im curious.

There are 2 things we are talking about here.  One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.

The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?

Can someone answer this for me please?



i have no idea how im getting that math wrong. in hindsight im an idiot and i see what im doing...i'm halving the $ but not multiplying by the right number
--------------------------------------------------
i dont know ahead of time if i'm going to hedge...i think when you lock in a bet on saturday morning for 4 games maybe the next day you feel different about the last game

sometimes i can love the game even more...sometimes there's an injury. its case by case with me
 
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Posted: #77
KOAJ is right* not write*
 
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Posted: #78
I'm somewhat bemused by the "arguments" presented in this thread.  Vanzack's overall point is statistically, indisputably valid, simply based on the fact that parlays don't pay true odds i.e., a 3-team parlay should really pay out closer to 7-1 instead of 6-1, a 4-team should pay 13.3-1.  It makes no sense to ever parlay the last leg in a situation where the the outcome of the previous legs can already be determined unless the parlay odds are true, because you would always better off rolling bets into the next one by one.  The only parlays that make "sense" because you want more action on a series of events than your bankroll would otherwise allow, are for games that are going on simultaneously, which you wouldn't ever be able to hedge.  Put it another way, you should never be in situation where hedging is even an available option.  If you are, then you did something wrong.  It has nothing to do with take a guaranteed smaller win.  It two ways of betting the same outcome, but one has a higher payout.
 
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Posted: #79

Koaj - your statement about liking the game less or more, or an injury, or a line move, or something fundamentally different would provide a good situation to hedge.

I am simply saying that there are many that go in to the bet with the knowledge that they are going to hedge the last game no matter what, even if there is no fundamental change.

These are the people I am trying to reach here.  It is always better to leave off the last game if you know ahead of time you are going to hedge.

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Posted: #80
vanzack: your math is absolutely correct, your statements are correct.  However, there are those of us that don't make a living gambling, just play for fun and some profit if we can, actually like to bet a 4 team parlay with one leg coming on the next day.  Then, providing we hit the first three, can hedge varying amounts on the last game, depending on how we feel about the game on that day.  We know there can be more money betting straight bets etc, with less juice for the bookie.  Please give us a break and don't talk down to us because we LIKE to do it that way.  You are right, we admit it.  It is OUR business if we want to give more vig and play the way we want to.  We appreciate your input and help, always.  You have to understand that many of us are not big players and would rather do it our way even if we could have made maybe 30-40% more doing it the right way.  Everyone that bets parlays KNOWS (or should) that they are taking a beating on the vig.  YOU'RE RIGHT, give up on trying to make us do it your way.
 
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Posted: #81
I'm somewhat bemused by the "arguments" presented in this thread.  Vanzack's overall point is statistically, indisputably valid, simply based on the fact that parlays don't pay true odds i.e., a 3-team parlay should really pay out closer to 7-1 instead of 6-1, a 4-team should pay 13.3-1.  It makes no sense to ever parlay the last leg in a situation where the the outcome of the previous legs can already be determined unless the parlay odds are true, because you would always better off rolling bets into the next one by one.  The only parlays that make "sense" because you want more action on a series of events than your bankroll would otherwise allow, are for games that are going on simultaneously, which you wouldn't ever be able to hedge.  Put it another way, you should never be in situation where hedging is even an available option.  If you are, then you did something wrong.  It has nothing to do with take a guaranteed smaller win.  It two ways of betting the same outcome, but one has a higher payout.
 
 
 
Thank you bodogblows.  I was starting to think I was the crazy one in here.

But it really goes to show you just how many gamblers dont have a grasp of the mathematics that decide their success.  It is very surprising to me.
 
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Posted: #82

ab1freetorun -

You are basically saying to me "I like to give money away, dont bother me".

No problem.  Im not badgering you.  But clearly by your post you dont understand what you are doing.

I am telling you that you shouldnt put a game in a parlay that is the next day because you can have MORE control over what you want to do with that game, and make MORE money by not putting it in the parlay.

I dont think you understand this.  You are giving away money unnecessarily WITH NO BENEFIT.  You dont care about that?  You wouldnt like to make the same exact bet and MAKE MORE MONEY?

Im confused.

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Posted: #83
hedging is not completely a bad thing....with the way you explain it imma have to agree....if you know your going to hedge your last game then why not cut your parlay short. but then again, if the parlay is gonna pay 1k then why not hedge a little or half. i agree it cuts your odds down but it depends on how much the person wants to win. if a parlay was gonna pay 50 bucks, then why hedge?  hedging should be used when a line moves, injury, and/or to give yourself a middle. it can work for you or it can kill your odds.

hedging is a tool IMO and should be used in the right spots.

gl
 
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Posted: #84
Vanzack, do want to stir up a bunch of shit and the other one was getting long. I dont do parlays and teasers so I dont ever have the option to hedge ever, but heres my question. I read the other thread about hedgeing the five teamer last night, and I understand your math perfectly, but you cant ask someone to go back and make a 4 teamer after the 5 teamer is already placed and you only need 1 leg left to win.
 
His parlay last night was 50 to win 1350. But say theoretically you bet 5000 to win 135,000. This parlay dosent have to have games on a different day just a little time to hedge if you feel its necessary. Thats a large payout for any parlay and I can only assume a large payout for a good majority of posters. Now I think I can also fairly say that most of the posters on covers would hedge if they were staring down the barrel of this parlay. After you hit 4 out of 5 how could you not hedge. I myself would atleast guarantee myself 10-15,000, probably alot more. I understand the idea of letting the parlay ride since you made the bet in the first place but when does it become foolish not to hedge. Are you saying not to hedge b/c its only $50. If thats the case would you hedge here. Dont see how you couldnt. Anyway food for thought.
 
 
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Koaj - your statement about liking the game less or more, or an injury, or a line move, or something fundamentally different would provide a good situation to hedge.

I am simply saying that there are many that go in to the bet with the knowledge that they are going to hedge the last game no matter what, even if there is no fundamental change.

These are the people I am trying to reach here.  It is always better to leave off the last game if you know ahead of time you are going to hedge.



well there's two groups of people here

gamblers and grinders

gamblers let it ride while grinders try and work small profits week after week
 
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Posted: #86
KOAJ, what Van is trying to say is :
 
For example i make a parlay right now on these Baseball plays for today:
 
PARLAYING :TB Drays ,
                     TOR BJs ,
                     LAAngels and
                     Seattle
 
Laying 100 to win 1500 for the 4 teamer.
 
Now the first 3 games are 7 pm starts and the Oakland @ Seattle game is a 10:15 pm start.
 
So i am making this parlay thinking if i win the 7 PM games then i can hedge the Oak @ Seattle game by Taking OAK .
 
So Considering Toronto, TB and LAA win the 7 pm game i am hedging by taking OAK ML.
 
 
 
INSTEAD
 
I would be better off just playing the 7 pm games as the payout will be bigger for those 3 games compared to the payout for the 4 game parlay after hedging the 10:15 pm game.
 
Both the parlays must win the 7 pm games to have this argument anyways, thats why playing those 3 games only in a parlay is a much better idea than making that 4 teamer THINKING U WILL HEDGE THE 10 PM GAME IF THE FIRST 3 WIN.
 
I hope this helps.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #87
So i am making this parlay thinking if i win the 7 PM games then i can hedge the Oak @ Seattle game by Taking OAK .

nish - i dont think very many people go into a parlay that way
 
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Posted: #88
Even if you are not making a parlay thinking about hedging but most people will hedge the 4th game anyways right?
 
So why not just play the 7 pm games instead?
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by mtgmanphillyfan:

Vanzack...  I read your post and I read devilfan's comment.
I agree 110% in your comment to him. I hardly hedge....but I have done it a few times.
 
I am still thinking about Devilfan's comment.  He makes no sense and he didn't even read your post. Dude, you can't help everyone. Devilfand said this....  I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game. 
 
How does one guarantee something?  Wouldn't you win every game then?  And tones of money?  Still doesn't make sense. You can't guarantee crap when it comes to betting.  That is why they call it gambling, right?
 
Good post

Just got out of a meeting so I couldn't respond but KOAJ answered your question perfectly.  Regardless of the outcome of the last game, I know I won money.

And, I make perfect sense and like I said, I read enough of Van's initial post to spot the issue.  I don't need all the window dressing surrounding it.

Thanks for responding on my behalf KOAJ.  You and I appear to be in the same position and have the same goals with gambling.

 
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Posted: #90

Great thread Van.  This whole thread can be summed up with this one fundamental question that Van posed earlier:

"You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on?  WHY?"

Sportsbetting is all about finding +EV plays and avoiding the -EV plays.  Those that dismiss "expected value" as just some type of betting jargon are those that simply don't understand the power of math in sportsbetting and are those that are consistently bit in the ass by the math over and over again without really even knowing it.

Obviously, parlays are a book's wet dream and should be avoided.  But to then compound the mistake by hedging that last game to give away even more money is pathetic and over the long run will cost you more than you would ever care to admit.

 
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Posted: #91
totalguy,
 
Even if bettors dont make a parlay thinking abt hedging the last leg of the parlay .........99% will still hedge the last leg  after hiting the previous games.
 
 
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Posted: #92
This entire thread makes it painfully obvious why less than 5% of sports bettors will ever "win" in the long run.
I don't have a problem with someone not having the stones to go for it and taking a "guaranteed" win on a bet. My question is you already know you are getting terrible implied odds on a parlay when you make the bet. Why then compound that by hedging at the end. You are basically taking a mathmatically bad prop bet and making it worse. If you are going to hedge off the final game why include it in the parlay in the first place?
The question was raised because the guy played 4 games Sunday and 1 game Monday then wanted to hedge off Monday's game. Just leave it off the card.
For the more sensible bettor, get a book that let's you place "if" bets instead of parlays, the payouts are substantially higher over the long run.  
 
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Posted: #93
There is a very old saying in bookmaking that is 1000% accurate....
 
If you want to bet sides - come find me.....
If you want to bet parlays - I'll send a taxi to pick you up.....
If you want to bet teasers - I'll send a limo to pick you up....... 
 
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Posted: #94
The smartest thing said in this thread, including everything I have said, is what bodogblows said so distinctly and accurately here:
 
If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
 
That should be memorized by everyone at covers.  The point is that if you are considering hedging your parlay, you have already made mistake #1 outlined in my original post.  You could have made more money by betting the games at the same time in a parlay, and rolling it on to the games that started later.  You already gave money to a book unnecessarily.  Never parlay a game that is a later start time.
 
And if you are already in that situation, you are just making it worse by hedging.  You are taking a bad situation and making it worse.
 
That statement by bodogblows should be everyones mantra who bets parlays.  If you even said anything close to justifying hedging, you should ask yourself why you made the mistake of even being in a position to hedge in the first place. 
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Posted: #95

I believe van has an undue obsessive reliance on derivative materials or established dogmatics that has caused him to openly criticize originality and become totally bias against any unique individuality.

 

Now whether that is bad or good I guess that is up us unique morons.

 
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Posted: #96

omg.. what buddy?

I am with you Buddy as I am a moron per Van .

 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by buddywright:

I believe van has an undue obsessive reliance on derivative materials or established dogmatics that has caused him to openly criticize originality and become totally bias against any unique individuality.

 

Now whether that is bad or good I guess that is up us unique morons.

Translation:

I prefer to get paid more rather than less for the same thing, and your definition of "individuality" is someone who likes to give money away.

If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
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Posted: #98
THERE IS A SIMPLE EXPLANATION WHY PEOPLE LIKE TO HEDGE:
 
1. IF THEY BET FOR 2 DAYS, AUTOMATICALLY THEY DONT HAVE TO BET TOMMOROW (LETS SAY THEY MADE A BET ON SATURDAY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY) INSTEAD OF BETTING ON A PARLAY IN WHICH THEY INVESTED LETS SAY 25$ FOR 2500$ AND IF THEY WIN THEY MUST BET TOMMOROW 2500$ FOR 5000$ (WHICH THEY DONT HAVE BALLS TO DO), SO THEY MAKE A BET FOR TWO DAYS IN WHICH THEY DONT HAVE TO INVEST THAT AMOUNT OF MONEY!
I THINK YOU GET IT WHAT I AM TRYIN TO SAY!
 
 
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Posted: #99
I am under the impression that Van will take this argument to his grave.
 
Bless you.
 
I understand what you're saying and your reasoning but the fact remains, I like guaranteed money, plain and simple.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Devil fan - if you are saying that I will take mathematics and facts to my grave, well, then I think you are correct.

You keep saying you like guaranteed money, but you refuse to consider that:
 
If you are in the position to hedge, you have already made a fundamental error.
 
Your guaranteed money parlays should not include any game that has a later starting time, because you can make more money by betting the games starting at the same time and rolling it all on to the next game.
 
Same "guaranteed money", just more of it.  What arent you understanding about this?  Its the same exact wager on the same exact outcome, except you get paid more!!
 
Im starting to think you are just winding me up here because by this point you have to understand this.
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