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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

    «First Previous 678 ... 282930 Next Last»
    brendanb438
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    brendanb438
    brendanb438
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:06 PM ET #126

    I know you said 16 thousand you tard.  I don't believe you bet a tenth of that.

    Oh wait you don't understand math.

    1/10 of $16K = $1,600.  Hedge that to the bank!
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    I know you said 16 thousand you tard.  I don't believe you bet a tenth of that.

    Oh wait you don't understand math.

    1/10 of $16K = $1,600.  Hedge that to the bank!
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:06 PM ET #127

    Van makes PERFECT sense. End of story.
     
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    Van makes PERFECT sense. End of story.
     
     
    brendanb438
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:08 PM ET #128

    Vanzack those who will read your thread and actually understand and use that info will thank you for it.

    I don't understand why DevilFan even posted in this thread?  His comments alone speak for his intelligence.  He is a lawyer though right?  A troll lawyer!
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    Vanzack those who will read your thread and actually understand and use that info will thank you for it.

    I don't understand why DevilFan even posted in this thread?  His comments alone speak for his intelligence.  He is a lawyer though right?  A troll lawyer!
     
    lasvegasroller
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:10 PM ET #129

    PEOPLE  (LOSERS) DONT LIKE TO BET BIG AMOUNT OF MONEY, THEY RATHER PLAY IT SAFE THATS WHY THEY LIKE TO HEDGE IT, ITS THAT SIMPLE!
     
    BUT, HEY IN THIS BUSINESS YOU CANT MAKE MONEY IF YOU DONT BET BIG$$$!
     
    ITS LIKE FUCKING WITH NO DICK! LOSERS, DO YOU REALLY YOU THINK YOU CAN WIN WITH THAT STYLE OF PLAY!!???
     
    ITS LIKE BIL-LICK GONNA WIN A GAME WITHOUT RUNNIG THE FUCKEN BALL ON 1 YARD LINE!!!!
     
    YOU LOSERS OUT THERE REMIND ME OF HIM!
    MAYBE HE IS NOT THAT BIG IDIOT AFTER ALL, MAYBE YOU ARE, AT LEAST HE HAS COMPANY!!!
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    PEOPLE  (LOSERS) DONT LIKE TO BET BIG AMOUNT OF MONEY, THEY RATHER PLAY IT SAFE THATS WHY THEY LIKE TO HEDGE IT, ITS THAT SIMPLE!
     
    BUT, HEY IN THIS BUSINESS YOU CANT MAKE MONEY IF YOU DONT BET BIG$$$!
     
    ITS LIKE FUCKING WITH NO DICK! LOSERS, DO YOU REALLY YOU THINK YOU CAN WIN WITH THAT STYLE OF PLAY!!???
     
    ITS LIKE BIL-LICK GONNA WIN A GAME WITHOUT RUNNIG THE FUCKEN BALL ON 1 YARD LINE!!!!
     
    YOU LOSERS OUT THERE REMIND ME OF HIM!
    MAYBE HE IS NOT THAT BIG IDIOT AFTER ALL, MAYBE YOU ARE, AT LEAST HE HAS COMPANY!!!
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:24 PM ET #130

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    Brendan.. you arent reading or understanding... I never said hedging was making me more money.  Find one place where I said that.  My position is that if I can hedge and guarantee myself money, I will usually do it.  Also, I said I wagered 16K last saturday, not last week.  Learn to fuckin read will ya.

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    Brendan.. you arent reading or understanding... I never said hedging was making me more money.  Find one place where I said that.  My position is that if I can hedge and guarantee myself money, I will usually do it.  Also, I said I wagered 16K last saturday, not last week.  Learn to fuckin read will ya.

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:26 PM ET #131

    Quote Originally Posted by idlefool:

    Listen vanzack, the point of a parlay is so that you don't risk as much to win big. That is why we include all the best options(so we think) regardless of what time the games are played.

    The options you have listed:
    Option 2:  Bet a 3 team parlay at 6-1, bet all proceeds straight up on Monday team.  Bet 100, win 1,336.

    I agree, in this case you would win more. But you would also be risking more as well.

    And this is exactly what I am talking about.  People who gamble and dont have a fundamental grasp of mathematics or probability.

    You are not risking more.  You are risking 100 in each case.  You are being paid more for the same exact outcome.

    This is so tiresome, but I swear it is easier and easier to see why 95% of gamblers lose continuously, dont know why, and then will argue to their death against mathematics.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by idlefool:

    Listen vanzack, the point of a parlay is so that you don't risk as much to win big. That is why we include all the best options(so we think) regardless of what time the games are played.

    The options you have listed:
    Option 2:  Bet a 3 team parlay at 6-1, bet all proceeds straight up on Monday team.  Bet 100, win 1,336.

    I agree, in this case you would win more. But you would also be risking more as well.

    And this is exactly what I am talking about.  People who gamble and dont have a fundamental grasp of mathematics or probability.

    You are not risking more.  You are risking 100 in each case.  You are being paid more for the same exact outcome.

    This is so tiresome, but I swear it is easier and easier to see why 95% of gamblers lose continuously, dont know why, and then will argue to their death against mathematics.

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:29 PM ET #132

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    I said 16,000, not 1600... I wonder if you even earn 16K a year... again, go away.
     
    K=thousand my friend.

    BrendanB's point is absolutely correct.

    If you won 5k on your 16k in wagers, BrendanB and myself would have won 6k.

    Now add or take away a zero, and it is all the same.  You win 5 we win 6.  You win 50,000 we win 60,000.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    I said 16,000, not 1600... I wonder if you even earn 16K a year... again, go away.
     
    K=thousand my friend.

    BrendanB's point is absolutely correct.

    If you won 5k on your 16k in wagers, BrendanB and myself would have won 6k.

    Now add or take away a zero, and it is all the same.  You win 5 we win 6.  You win 50,000 we win 60,000.

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:32 PM ET #133

    Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

    He wont think about it.  I have asked him this same question 10 times.  He cant understand it.

    I am amazed.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

    He wont think about it.  I have asked him this same question 10 times.  He cant understand it.

    I am amazed.

     
    DevilFan
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:36 PM ET #134

    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge.  Brendan, how does Van's ass taste today?
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    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge.  Brendan, how does Van's ass taste today?
     
    THAmanRP
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:37 PM ET #135

    I'm still amaze by all the people that still consider hedging when all the math show that it's not a good idea. Vanzack, I know how you feel. I have to explain the same thing to my family and they are still doing parlays and hedging on their parlays

    I rarely do parlay. I only do it when the odds in the card are better than the odd on the board. The only time I have the parlay with a posibility of hedging is when I know that the line WILL move in my favor. Otherwise, people, don't do the parlay with the hedging opportunity. Tha math don't lie.

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    I'm still amaze by all the people that still consider hedging when all the math show that it's not a good idea. Vanzack, I know how you feel. I have to explain the same thing to my family and they are still doing parlays and hedging on their parlays

    I rarely do parlay. I only do it when the odds in the card are better than the odd on the board. The only time I have the parlay with a posibility of hedging is when I know that the line WILL move in my favor. Otherwise, people, don't do the parlay with the hedging opportunity. Tha math don't lie.

     
    totalguy
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:38 PM ET #136

    Mitch: O.K., if you want to watch one show but record another show at the same time, the television set does not have to be on channel 3.
    Phil: Yeah it does.
    Mitch: No it doesn't.
    Phil: It does.
    Mitch: No, if you're watching what you're recording, then it has to be on 3.
    Phil: What... the TV or... or the machine?
    Mitch: The TV.
    Phil: You're saying I can record something I'm not even watching?
    Mitch: Yes, that's the point. You don't even need a TV to record.
    Phil: How would I see it?
    Mitch: Well to see it you need a TV.
    Ed: Shut up! Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows can tape something by now! Forget about it please!
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    Mitch: O.K., if you want to watch one show but record another show at the same time, the television set does not have to be on channel 3.
    Phil: Yeah it does.
    Mitch: No it doesn't.
    Phil: It does.
    Mitch: No, if you're watching what you're recording, then it has to be on 3.
    Phil: What... the TV or... or the machine?
    Mitch: The TV.
    Phil: You're saying I can record something I'm not even watching?
    Mitch: Yes, that's the point. You don't even need a TV to record.
    Phil: How would I see it?
    Mitch: Well to see it you need a TV.
    Ed: Shut up! Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows can tape something by now! Forget about it please!
     
    rackjaw
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:43 PM ET #137

    So...Next time bet a 3 team parlay...Then also at the same time bet a 4 team parlay with the game tomorrow.
    Hows that??? Same thing.. Even MORE money..If u knew you were going to hedge the last or the following night  bet only {which most don't}.then why not bet a 3 AND a 4 teamer.Whats the thinking behind putting ALL the winnings into a last bet anyway?Makes no sense..We're all not purist gamblers here.If i won a 3 team parlay at 6 to 1 and hit for 600 bucks...I'm not letting it ride on a single game the next day.This thread is being overthought.Yes i would win more if i played the 3 teamer in the long run if i left off the last game,but we're gambling here.".TAKING A SHOT".This particular gambler had no idea his parlay was going to go that far..He was surprised...He wasn't thinking of hedging until just before the last game.He bet 50 bucks to win a large amount to him and to most...Why not lay 100 down against the last team he had..The WORST he could do was win 50 bucks..I think it was a smart bet...To him its either 50 bucks or 1,200 bucks ..either way he wins...Yeah he threw awaqy an extra 100 if the parlay hit ...But if it didn't he still gets a round of beers for him and his buddies..
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    So...Next time bet a 3 team parlay...Then also at the same time bet a 4 team parlay with the game tomorrow.
    Hows that??? Same thing.. Even MORE money..If u knew you were going to hedge the last or the following night  bet only {which most don't}.then why not bet a 3 AND a 4 teamer.Whats the thinking behind putting ALL the winnings into a last bet anyway?Makes no sense..We're all not purist gamblers here.If i won a 3 team parlay at 6 to 1 and hit for 600 bucks...I'm not letting it ride on a single game the next day.This thread is being overthought.Yes i would win more if i played the 3 teamer in the long run if i left off the last game,but we're gambling here.".TAKING A SHOT".This particular gambler had no idea his parlay was going to go that far..He was surprised...He wasn't thinking of hedging until just before the last game.He bet 50 bucks to win a large amount to him and to most...Why not lay 100 down against the last team he had..The WORST he could do was win 50 bucks..I think it was a smart bet...To him its either 50 bucks or 1,200 bucks ..either way he wins...Yeah he threw awaqy an extra 100 if the parlay hit ...But if it didn't he still gets a round of beers for him and his buddies..
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:44 PM ET #138

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge. 
     
    And 140 posts in to the thread, he finally states with his fingers what his brain cant grasp.
     
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge. 
     
    And 140 posts in to the thread, he finally states with his fingers what his brain cant grasp.
     
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:47 PM ET #139

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge.  Brendan, how does Van's ass taste today?

    I don't know if you are stubborn or slow. Why did you include that last game?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    There will always be the last game and if you win the prior ones, the opportunity to hedge always exists... what's so hard to understand about that?  You would have to bet all games at the same start time to prevent the opportunity to hedge.  Brendan, how does Van's ass taste today?

    I don't know if you are stubborn or slow. Why did you include that last game?

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:47 PM ET #140

    Quote Originally Posted by rackjaw:

    So...Next time bet a 3 team parlay...Then also at the same time bet a 4 team parlay with the game tomorrow.
    Hows that??? Same thing.. Even MORE money..If u knew you were going to hedge the last or the following night  bet only {which most don't}.then why not bet a 3 AND a 4 teamer.Whats the thinking behind putting ALL the winnings into a last bet anyway?Makes no sense..We're all not purist gamblers here.If i won a 3 team parlay at 6 to 1 and hit for 600 bucks...I'm not letting it ride on a single game the next day.This thread is being overthought.Yes i would win more if i played the 3 teamer in the long run if i left off the last game,but we're gambling here.".TAKING A SHOT".This particular gambler had no idea his parlay was going to go that far..He was surprised...He wasn't thinking of hedging until just before the last game.He bet 50 bucks to win a large amount to him and to most...Why not lay 100 down against the last team he had..The WORST he could do was win 50 bucks..I think it was a smart bet...To him its either 50 bucks or 1,200 bucks ..either way he wins...Yeah he threw awaqy an extra 100 if the parlay hit ...But if it didn't he still gets a round of beers for him and his buddies..

    If that paragraph above doesnt describe the term "square" to a tee, I dont know what does.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rackjaw:

    So...Next time bet a 3 team parlay...Then also at the same time bet a 4 team parlay with the game tomorrow.
    Hows that??? Same thing.. Even MORE money..If u knew you were going to hedge the last or the following night  bet only {which most don't}.then why not bet a 3 AND a 4 teamer.Whats the thinking behind putting ALL the winnings into a last bet anyway?Makes no sense..We're all not purist gamblers here.If i won a 3 team parlay at 6 to 1 and hit for 600 bucks...I'm not letting it ride on a single game the next day.This thread is being overthought.Yes i would win more if i played the 3 teamer in the long run if i left off the last game,but we're gambling here.".TAKING A SHOT".This particular gambler had no idea his parlay was going to go that far..He was surprised...He wasn't thinking of hedging until just before the last game.He bet 50 bucks to win a large amount to him and to most...Why not lay 100 down against the last team he had..The WORST he could do was win 50 bucks..I think it was a smart bet...To him its either 50 bucks or 1,200 bucks ..either way he wins...Yeah he threw awaqy an extra 100 if the parlay hit ...But if it didn't he still gets a round of beers for him and his buddies..

    If that paragraph above doesnt describe the term "square" to a tee, I dont know what does.

     
    brendanb438
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:50 PM ET #141

    Vanzack but he says we are not all gamblers here and then says we are gambling here.  What is not to understand?  Gamblers are not gamblers, duh.

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    Vanzack but he says we are not all gamblers here and then says we are gambling here.  What is not to understand?  Gamblers are not gamblers, duh.

     
    OLDPORT
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:53 PM ET #142

    DevilFan....
     
    With all due respect man...
     

     AGREE 100% vanzack....

     HEDGING...let the parlay ride....

    Not to change the subject vanzack...but did u get the impression Billick had a wager on Cincy last night

    Fucking terrible play calling 

     

     

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    DevilFan....
     
    With all due respect man...
     

     AGREE 100% vanzack....

     HEDGING...let the parlay ride....

    Not to change the subject vanzack...but did u get the impression Billick had a wager on Cincy last night

    Fucking terrible play calling 

     

     

     
    buddywright
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:54 PM ET #143

    Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

    I rarely play 4 team Parlays but let me think why there would be a remote possibility a dude would play a 5 teamer pertaining to this guys action last-night the NUMBERS dudes are all in a f**king uproar about.

    let me think .... let me think....let me think....Ok I have a 4 teamer with not really much frigging odds of winning but the MONDAYnight game is going off and I like CINN-2.5.

    Well hell I have action going on this frigging 4 teamer and if by some remote far out possibility I win the frigging thing why don't I go ahead and throw the CINN-2.5 and make it a 5 teamer and if it does win I can maybe get 3.5 or buy the BALTIMORE side to 3.5 and hell if I can hit a 4 teamer why cant I hit both sides of a PRO game that looks like it has a damn good shot of being a 3 point final anyway and try to the whole load.

    How was that bro?

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    Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

    If you are even thinking of hedging, why was that extra game included? Its hilarious how people rationalize a guaranteed profit. You would have had that guarantee by not playing that extra game. Think about it. Please. 

    I rarely play 4 team Parlays but let me think why there would be a remote possibility a dude would play a 5 teamer pertaining to this guys action last-night the NUMBERS dudes are all in a f**king uproar about.

    let me think .... let me think....let me think....Ok I have a 4 teamer with not really much frigging odds of winning but the MONDAYnight game is going off and I like CINN-2.5.

    Well hell I have action going on this frigging 4 teamer and if by some remote far out possibility I win the frigging thing why don't I go ahead and throw the CINN-2.5 and make it a 5 teamer and if it does win I can maybe get 3.5 or buy the BALTIMORE side to 3.5 and hell if I can hit a 4 teamer why cant I hit both sides of a PRO game that looks like it has a damn good shot of being a 3 point final anyway and try to the whole load.

    How was that bro?

     
    rackjaw
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:57 PM ET #144

    Square or not, is money in his pocket...Only YOU would make a bet you thought you had to hedge in the first place...Whats wrong with your capping skills pal??? Not sure of your bets?? Your thinking is way out of whack on this simple matter..You would just let that bet ride??  I know what your saying is that he should have only made a 3 team parlay, but he didn't!!  You think he cares? He won no matter what.If you think any different your the square...
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    Square or not, is money in his pocket...Only YOU would make a bet you thought you had to hedge in the first place...Whats wrong with your capping skills pal??? Not sure of your bets?? Your thinking is way out of whack on this simple matter..You would just let that bet ride??  I know what your saying is that he should have only made a 3 team parlay, but he didn't!!  You think he cares? He won no matter what.If you think any different your the square...
     
    MysterE934
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:57 PM ET #145

    Hey Van, I don't know if you guys came to any understanding cause I just could not make it all the way down this thread...but you are straight on positively right here.  I think your main point, which some are missing is that if you were planning on hedging in say a 4 teamer where the last game goes off late, you should just bet a three teamer and then bet the last game separate.  However, if you already put the 4 teamer down and you want to guarantee some profits than I understand why someone would want to do this in a single situation.  Long term though, the math works out in your favor and they should reconsider how they bet their parlay in the first place if they are planning to hedge.  So if you bet a lot of parlays, hedging is not the way to go, but if you bet a parlay but it is not something you normally do and don't plan on doing, then it might make a little more sense to hedge.  This is how I reconcile your disagreement...
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    Hey Van, I don't know if you guys came to any understanding cause I just could not make it all the way down this thread...but you are straight on positively right here.  I think your main point, which some are missing is that if you were planning on hedging in say a 4 teamer where the last game goes off late, you should just bet a three teamer and then bet the last game separate.  However, if you already put the 4 teamer down and you want to guarantee some profits than I understand why someone would want to do this in a single situation.  Long term though, the math works out in your favor and they should reconsider how they bet their parlay in the first place if they are planning to hedge.  So if you bet a lot of parlays, hedging is not the way to go, but if you bet a parlay but it is not something you normally do and don't plan on doing, then it might make a little more sense to hedge.  This is how I reconcile your disagreement...
     
    DevilFan
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:58 PM ET #146

    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 
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    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 
     
    rackjaw
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 3:59 PM ET #147

    HE'S a smart though..Can't understand that
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    HE'S a smart though..Can't understand that
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 4:03 PM ET #148

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 

    Who's the dead horse? the old dog?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 

    Who's the dead horse? the old dog?

     
    rackjaw
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 4:15 PM ET #149

    One question and simple answer Van..

    You MISTAKINGLY made a 4 team parlay,,{ I know you never make mistakes} but hypothetically..With 1 of the games being played the next night...{I'm sure you would never get in this predicament}...The first 3 teams hit for you....You have lets say the Yankees as the 4th team....At Even money..{which never happens also}....What would you do?????

     

     

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    One question and simple answer Van..

    You MISTAKINGLY made a 4 team parlay,,{ I know you never make mistakes} but hypothetically..With 1 of the games being played the next night...{I'm sure you would never get in this predicament}...The first 3 teams hit for you....You have lets say the Yankees as the 4th team....At Even money..{which never happens also}....What would you do?????

     

     

     
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 4:17 PM ET #150

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 

    Yeah, I guess it would be hard to teach anyone how winning less money for the same exact outcome is a good idea.

    I think this is your first good advice of the whole thread.  Go beat your horse, and quit gambling until you can understand 3rd grade mathematics.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

    This is like beating a dead horse..... goodbye gentlemen...
     
    Vanzack, I respect your thoughts and opinions...but you can't teach an old dog new tricks. 

    Yeah, I guess it would be hard to teach anyone how winning less money for the same exact outcome is a good idea.

    I think this is your first good advice of the whole thread.  Go beat your horse, and quit gambling until you can understand 3rd grade mathematics.

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