To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

I do not wager on games based on "when" they are played so taking a Parlay to purposely play all the games in the same day does not make sense to me, I am disregarding the strength of the play completely,  When I handicap I look at all the weekend games or over the next few days and analyze them and cap them, based on how I have been doing and how I rate the strength of the particular game.  So that said if i identify strong plays or lines that are off and I play a 4 team parlay over the course of 2 or 3 days and hit them all and the last leg is on the Thursday game, I do hedge to guatantee a "profit".  Now if the so called strong plays I identify are in the same day, great but to paly thenm based on the date played is folly to me.......  I have taken this approach over the past 30 + years and it has worked very well and helps offset the VIG disadvantage over the couse of a season and does imo bolster my winning % quite a bit.  I do not parlay often, like I said, only when I get on a roll or identify errors or off lines based on my research and I am in a position to lay the parlay with HOUSE money. 

Solid write up and discussion but I disagree with your premise.  

Great thread.

Hedging my futures ticket on UDub with Michigan; guaranteed profit

 I am in a last man standing  contest at one of my offshore books. I have picked the first 17 games correctly , no spread just pick a winning side. Only catch is you can only use each team one time .I have one other guy who is tied w/me . This was a $50 buy in contest. There is $42,000plus in the pool, winner take all . BetUS will take a 10% cut, leaving roughly $38000. I have Cincinnati vs Browns .One of 3 things could happen .1 We both win, & split the money. 2 I can win , he loses, i win it all. if somehow cleveland wins , I can win $5000 on a hedge on cleveland of $2000 . What would you do ? 

@cheeser

 I am in THE EXACT SAME spot! There are 33 of us left to possibly split 421660. and I was going to take Cincy in the contest and Cleveland plus 7.5 for 2750.00

@cheeser

 BTW Congrats! I'm having second thoughts on Cincy. Id much rather win the contest pick than the hedge but 2500 would somewhat soften the blow of losing. Of course a 23-20 Cincy win would be a dream come true! You have opened my eyes to the cleveland moneyline though! Im going to put half my orig wager plan on the moneyline 

@cheeser

 Any other plays you are considering?

Been betting hoops . Will look this pm . I'll post on this thread if i like one. 

vansuck with some more loser ass advice. He thinks people really listen to him and it makes little man feel important. 

@Juniorg1986

 Wow, pretty harsh stuff there big guy!   

@vanzack

 Do you by chance play the ponies ?                                                           

@Christo511

 Cleveland M/L now + @ $280 from $250 .

@cheeser $2000 hedge on Cleveland + $5600 .                                             

@cheeser

 I think the difference is you have 3 possible outcomes vs 2 outcomes, when you have a last Team neede to either win to hit the parlay vs losing so you bet the other side, having 3 potential outcomes (or more) is riskier to hedge and lowers your probability,  I say you go for the outright win! 

Van, you are the financial guru in the gambling world    Buffet would agree with you also  https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffetts-bet-hedge-funds-year-eight-brka-brkb.asp

Regardless of anything it all comes down to the persons financial situation. If you are betting this year in the NFL and are down 3k with a guaranteed profit of 3k by hedging the parlay, what would you do?  I would feel fantastic knowing that I would be walking out of the season even. 

Van brings up great points. The math in the long run does not work in your favor. It again just comes down to financial resources. If you have a $50 parlay at 20-1 well, I would let it ride. If you lose it may be a unit. If you win you now have a 20-unit profit. 

@vanzack

 Seems to me your a class act. Good Luck and the Best of Health.

Having been in the business for about 15 years many years ago , i can assure you bookies LOVE parlay players. Hard not to lose if you bet all the sports all year long . 

This take is comical to me. 

It’s kind of fitting considering I have won the first 3 teams of my 4 game parlay….the last leg is CFP michigan ML

I think it’s like 175 to win around 1300 bucks

i guess it’s personal decision, but I don’t know how your saying it’s a bad idea to

hedge and not guarantee a win

i won’t follow your advice, but rather probably bet 500 bucks or so on Washington ML to win 900

that way I’m guaranteed winning 800 or 725 regardless on a parlay I threw on the dart board

to each their own, but I’m finding it hard to see how betting to guarantee a profit is a bad idea

bol

@KeyMaster

 I am going for the win . Think I have a winner . & FWIW , I don't bet parlays w/ the exception of MLB ,a 2 teamer game & same game total .I wish you , & everybody else as well , Gl on all your plays .                                                                    

kimberton: i guess it’s personal decision, but I don’t know how your saying it’s a bad idea to hedge and not guarantee a win.

"Guaranteeing a win" is not always a smart move. It can cost you money. If your goal is to win as much $$$ as you can, which is usually the case, then yes, it's a bad idea to hedge.

Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just two minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000! (Your risk was $550.)

I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me?

If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game!

You paid $550 for it and I'm offering you $700 right here and now! It's guaranteed money! It's a guaranteed profit!

Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.

Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950 or $1,000... or more.

This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever.

Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price.

You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge.

Let's say you bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. Let's say you are fortunate enough to win the first three legs of your parlay each and every time. So you, with your logic to "guarantee a win," hedge your bet each time.

Let's say I also bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. I am also fortunate enough to win the first three legs each and every time. And yet I chose NOT to ever hedge and let it ride.

You won 104 weekends in a row. You won every single weekend. You guaranteed a profit each and every week.

And yet I, most likely, only won half of my bets. (In all probability, I lost that last leg about half the time.)

And yet who has more money, me or you?

Yes, I do.

Do the math. Despite you not halving a single losing weekend, because of all of your hedging, I have more money than you.

"If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."

Week 18 in a contest where I will win anywhere from 12,777.00 to 70k. If I pick the wrong team I win 0.00. If I hedge and play opposite I get $3500.00. All the wannabe financial scholars can say whatever the F they want. IM EFFING HEDGING! Anything else is dumb nonsense!

@TRAIN69

 Correct