Talk to me about $ in my pocket, not expected value.
Would you rather walk around with $ in your pocket now or hope tomorrow when you wake up, the "expected value" that is in your pocket turns into cash.
Try walking into a store buying a soda and tell the guy, I will pay you tomorrow, I hope, because I have expected value.
ANSWER THIS PLEASE:
And if you realize ahead of time that you have utility created by the amounts possible to win, why dont you just leave off the last game of the parlay?
Focus, and please read that question and give me a direct answer.
You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on? WHY?
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Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:
Talk to me about $ in my pocket, not expected value.
Would you rather walk around with $ in your pocket now or hope tomorrow when you wake up, the "expected value" that is in your pocket turns into cash.
Try walking into a store buying a soda and tell the guy, I will pay you tomorrow, I hope, because I have expected value.
ANSWER THIS PLEASE:
And if you realize ahead of time that you have utility created by the amounts possible to win, why dont you just leave off the last game of the parlay?
Focus, and please read that question and give me a direct answer.
You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on? WHY?
that being said, the EV in line 2 is not guaranteed. the known in line 1 is guaranteed
i dont think i'm misunderstanding...just presenting a side that i believe works for me. i dont like risk, i dont like uncertain monies floating out there. locking in guaranteed profits work for me even if that value is less than my expected value using option 2 because i am not guaranteed to hit that last leg 50% of the time
in my mind it is a battle between the known (hedge) and unknown (letting it ride)
Koaj - fine - if you know that you wont want to take the risk on the last game:
WHY PUT IT IN THE PARLAY IN THE FIRST PLACE???
You make more money by leaving it off, you know ahead of time that you are going to hedge, it is the same exact bet, so why do you put it on?
Please answer this. I cant understand this.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
my mistake on the math...
that being said, the EV in line 2 is not guaranteed. the known in line 1 is guaranteed
i dont think i'm misunderstanding...just presenting a side that i believe works for me. i dont like risk, i dont like uncertain monies floating out there. locking in guaranteed profits work for me even if that value is less than my expected value using option 2 because i am not guaranteed to hit that last leg 50% of the time
in my mind it is a battle between the known (hedge) and unknown (letting it ride)
Koaj - fine - if you know that you wont want to take the risk on the last game:
WHY PUT IT IN THE PARLAY IN THE FIRST PLACE???
You make more money by leaving it off, you know ahead of time that you are going to hedge, it is the same exact bet, so why do you put it on?
on a theoretical level i know i'm wrong...but that theory needs to guarantee that i hit the last leg 50% of the time.
good thread
Fair enough. Whew. Glad we got to that, I am assuming a 50/50 chance on the last game.
But with all of the vig you are paying, off the top of my head I would say that your strategy has a breakeven point on the last game of 40/60, if even that high.
That means that even if you could put an EV of 40% on the last game, you are better off not hedging.
Something to think about.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
more:
on a theoretical level i know i'm wrong...but that theory needs to guarantee that i hit the last leg 50% of the time.
good thread
Fair enough. Whew. Glad we got to that, I am assuming a 50/50 chance on the last game.
But with all of the vig you are paying, off the top of my head I would say that your strategy has a breakeven point on the last game of 40/60, if even that high.
That means that even if you could put an EV of 40% on the last game, you are better off not hedging.
I have asked you this question 3 times, and you have ignored it 3 times, and I must asssume at this point that you are not interested in having a rational discussion.
ANSWER THIS PLEASE:
And if you realize ahead of time that you have utility created by the amounts possible to win, why dont you just leave off the last game of the parlay?
Focus, and please read that question and give me a direct answer.
You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on? WHY?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Devilfan -
I have asked you this question 3 times, and you have ignored it 3 times, and I must asssume at this point that you are not interested in having a rational discussion.
ANSWER THIS PLEASE:
And if you realize ahead of time that you have utility created by the amounts possible to win, why dont you just leave off the last game of the parlay?
Focus, and please read that question and give me a direct answer.
You make more money by leaving it off, you know you are going to hedge, but yet you put it on? WHY?
Koaj - fine - if you know that you wont want to take the risk on the last game:
WHY PUT IT IN THE PARLAY IN THE FIRST PLACE???
You make more money by leaving it off, you know ahead of time that you are going to hedge, it is the same exact bet, so why do you put it on?
Please answer this. I cant understand this.
you know i rarely do parlays anyway so i'm probably a bad example to use
i dont ever think that far in advance (probably wrong)...i always think i am going to win everything...especially in football...i know that isnt the case
$100 4 team parlay pays 10-1 -win the first 3 and hedge the last one + points for $350 -if the parlay hits you win 650, if the parlay loses you win 250.
the above equals a 150% return on my money at worst...compared to the chance of 1000% or -100%
so in theory i know i'm wrong, but in reality i know i'll never go poor if i can consistently book small profits...its a euphamism but i think it fits nicely
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Koaj - fine - if you know that you wont want to take the risk on the last game:
WHY PUT IT IN THE PARLAY IN THE FIRST PLACE???
You make more money by leaving it off, you know ahead of time that you are going to hedge, it is the same exact bet, so why do you put it on?
Please answer this. I cant understand this.
you know i rarely do parlays anyway so i'm probably a bad example to use
i dont ever think that far in advance (probably wrong)...i always think i am going to win everything...especially in football...i know that isnt the case
$100 4 team parlay pays 10-1 -win the first 3 and hedge the last one + points for $350 -if the parlay hits you win 650, if the parlay loses you win 250.
the above equals a 150% return on my money at worst...compared to the chance of 1000% or -100%
so in theory i know i'm wrong, but in reality i know i'll never go poor if i can consistently book small profits...its a euphamism but i think it fits nicely
Fair enough. Whew. Glad we got to that, I am assuming a 50/50 chance on the last game.
But with all of the vig you are paying, off the top of my head I would say that your strategy has a breakeven point on the last game of 40/60, if even that high.
That means that even if you could put an EV of 40% on the last game, you are better off not hedging.
Something to think about.
good thread van and to bring it up to help educate is a good deed by you
a funny thing happens to people when they have a lot of money at risk gambling. they do things that are not mathamatically correct because of the money at stake or the payout on the line. see it everyday !
Spottie2935 on socials
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Fair enough. Whew. Glad we got to that, I am assuming a 50/50 chance on the last game.
But with all of the vig you are paying, off the top of my head I would say that your strategy has a breakeven point on the last game of 40/60, if even that high.
That means that even if you could put an EV of 40% on the last game, you are better off not hedging.
Something to think about.
good thread van and to bring it up to help educate is a good deed by you
a funny thing happens to people when they have a lot of money at risk gambling. they do things that are not mathamatically correct because of the money at stake or the payout on the line. see it everyday !
Van listen. You are obviously knowledgeable. I don't debate that. But I also believe I am knowledgeable. We have differing views or methods on gambling. Like I said, I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game. I hate the expression, "it's a marathon not a sprint" but it certainly is true. I am in this for the long haul and everyday that I can win money, I am happy with that.
If you think that is foolish of me. Than fine, that is your opinion. I have a good job, make a good living and salary, have a nice house, a wife and daughter. I am content with making $ every chance I get and coming back for more the next day. Tomorrow's another day. I don't need to look for the big hit or score when I am in a position to guarantee some money in my pocket.
I agree, good thread.
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Van listen. You are obviously knowledgeable. I don't debate that. But I also believe I am knowledgeable. We have differing views or methods on gambling. Like I said, I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game. I hate the expression, "it's a marathon not a sprint" but it certainly is true. I am in this for the long haul and everyday that I can win money, I am happy with that.
If you think that is foolish of me. Than fine, that is your opinion. I have a good job, make a good living and salary, have a nice house, a wife and daughter. I am content with making $ every chance I get and coming back for more the next day. Tomorrow's another day. I don't need to look for the big hit or score when I am in a position to guarantee some money in my pocket.
you know i rarely do parlays anyway so i'm probably a bad example to use
i dont ever think that far in advance (probably wrong)...i always think i am going to win everything...especially in football...i know that isnt the case
$100 4 team parlay pays 10-1 -win the first 3 and hedge the last one + points for $350 -if the parlay hits you win 650, if the parlay loses you win 250.
the above equals a 150% return on my money at worst...compared to the chance of 1000% or -100%
so in theory i know i'm wrong, but in reality i know i'll never go poor if i can consistently book small profits...its a euphamism but i think it fits nicely
Yes but if I told you that every day you had a choice. Flip a coin with me, and if you win I give you 4 dollars, if you lose I give you nothing and you give me nothing. OR, I could just give you a dollar to not flip.
I am trying to explain that guaranteeing yourself that dollar by not flipping is a bad idea. If you flip, today you might get nothing, but tomorrow you will get 4 dollars, and at the end of many days you will have twice the amount of money that you would have had if you took the guaranteed dollar every day.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
you know i rarely do parlays anyway so i'm probably a bad example to use
i dont ever think that far in advance (probably wrong)...i always think i am going to win everything...especially in football...i know that isnt the case
$100 4 team parlay pays 10-1 -win the first 3 and hedge the last one + points for $350 -if the parlay hits you win 650, if the parlay loses you win 250.
the above equals a 150% return on my money at worst...compared to the chance of 1000% or -100%
so in theory i know i'm wrong, but in reality i know i'll never go poor if i can consistently book small profits...its a euphamism but i think it fits nicely
Yes but if I told you that every day you had a choice. Flip a coin with me, and if you win I give you 4 dollars, if you lose I give you nothing and you give me nothing. OR, I could just give you a dollar to not flip.
I am trying to explain that guaranteeing yourself that dollar by not flipping is a bad idea. If you flip, today you might get nothing, but tomorrow you will get 4 dollars, and at the end of many days you will have twice the amount of money that you would have had if you took the guaranteed dollar every day.
Van, I don't know I am going to hedge until all but one game is finished and the last one hasnt started. Depending on the amount of the parlay, I may or may not hedge. It depends on what the guaranteed profit is and also depends on the kind of week or day I am having. If I am up big, I may not hedge and may just let it ride. It all depends. Generally though, any chance I get guarantee money, I usually take it, but not always.
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Van, I don't know I am going to hedge until all but one game is finished and the last one hasnt started. Depending on the amount of the parlay, I may or may not hedge. It depends on what the guaranteed profit is and also depends on the kind of week or day I am having. If I am up big, I may not hedge and may just let it ride. It all depends. Generally though, any chance I get guarantee money, I usually take it, but not always.
Van listen. You are obviously knowledgeable. I don't debate that. But I also believe I am knowledgeable. We have differing views or methods on gambling. Like I said, I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game. I hate the expression, "it's a marathon not a sprint" but it certainly is true. I am in this for the long haul and everyday that I can win money, I am happy with that.
If you think that is foolish of me. Than fine, that is your opinion. I have a good job, make a good living and salary, have a nice house, a wife and daughter. I am content with making $ every chance I get and coming back for more the next day. Tomorrow's another day. I don't need to look for the big hit or score when I am in a position to guarantee some money in my pocket.
I agree, good thread.
Why is this personal? Im glad you have a great life. Really.
This is math. Every time you take the "guaranteed" money you are giving money away.
If you are OK with that, then fine, that is your choice. But please dont blur the lines between your choice and facts. The fact is that you are going to have more money longterm if you dont hedge. Period.
Some people shop at walmart and some pay extra to go to target for the same item. You might have reasons for doing it, but there is no argument that the roll of toilet paper is cheaper at walmart.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:
Van listen. You are obviously knowledgeable. I don't debate that. But I also believe I am knowledgeable. We have differing views or methods on gambling. Like I said, I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game. I hate the expression, "it's a marathon not a sprint" but it certainly is true. I am in this for the long haul and everyday that I can win money, I am happy with that.
If you think that is foolish of me. Than fine, that is your opinion. I have a good job, make a good living and salary, have a nice house, a wife and daughter. I am content with making $ every chance I get and coming back for more the next day. Tomorrow's another day. I don't need to look for the big hit or score when I am in a position to guarantee some money in my pocket.
I agree, good thread.
Why is this personal? Im glad you have a great life. Really.
This is math. Every time you take the "guaranteed" money you are giving money away.
If you are OK with that, then fine, that is your choice. But please dont blur the lines between your choice and facts. The fact is that you are going to have more money longterm if you dont hedge. Period.
Some people shop at walmart and some pay extra to go to target for the same item. You might have reasons for doing it, but there is no argument that the roll of toilet paper is cheaper at walmart.
VAN-- that's assuming you hit win the coin flip 50% of the time. I know that's what the percentages are but they don't always hit 50% of the time. You could lose 10 in a row and be sick to your stomach and never come back for that 11th flip which starts the 10 flip win streak... to get you to 50%.
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VAN-- that's assuming you hit win the coin flip 50% of the time. I know that's what the percentages are but they don't always hit 50% of the time. You could lose 10 in a row and be sick to your stomach and never come back for that 11th flip which starts the 10 flip win streak... to get you to 50%.
Vanzack... I read your post and I read devilfan's comment.
I agree 110% in your comment to him. I hardly hedge....but I have done it a few times.
I am still thinking about Devilfan's comment. He makes no sense and he didn't even read your post. Dude, you can't help everyone. Devilfand said this.... I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game.
How does one guarantee something? Wouldn't you win every game then? And tones of money? Still doesn't make sense. You can't guarantee crap when it comes to betting. That is why they call it gambling, right?
Good post
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Vanzack... I read your post and I read devilfan's comment.
I agree 110% in your comment to him. I hardly hedge....but I have done it a few times.
I am still thinking about Devilfan's comment. He makes no sense and he didn't even read your post. Dude, you can't help everyone. Devilfand said this.... I like going to bed knowing that I won and guaranteed myself $ without having to worry about the outcome of a game.
How does one guarantee something? Wouldn't you win every game then? And tones of money? Still doesn't make sense. You can't guarantee crap when it comes to betting. That is why they call it gambling, right?
Yes but if I told you that every day you had a choice. Flip a coin with me, and if you win I give you 4 dollars, if you lose I give you nothing and you give me nothing. OR, I could just give you a dollar to not flip.
I am trying to explain that guaranteeing yourself that dollar by not flipping is a bad idea. If you flip, today you might get nothing, but tomorrow you will get 4 dollars, and at the end of many days you will have twice the amount of money that you would have had if you took the guaranteed dollar every day.
$1 a day = $365 a year $4 per flip win (EV of 50%) = $2*182.5 = $365
math works perfectly...but i digress
the $1 is guaranteed the $4 is not
the EV of a coin flip is 50/50 every time unlike a game. i think this is where we differ on opinions. i think you may be assuming a 50% EV on the last leg of the parlay. i don't think you can assume that
i do think the expected payouts on hitting big parlays over time will be more than the hedge will pay each time however...no one can guarantee a rate of success on hitting those big parlays yet the hedge works out 100% of the time because you lock in profit instead of keeping risk on the table
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Yes but if I told you that every day you had a choice. Flip a coin with me, and if you win I give you 4 dollars, if you lose I give you nothing and you give me nothing. OR, I could just give you a dollar to not flip.
I am trying to explain that guaranteeing yourself that dollar by not flipping is a bad idea. If you flip, today you might get nothing, but tomorrow you will get 4 dollars, and at the end of many days you will have twice the amount of money that you would have had if you took the guaranteed dollar every day.
$1 a day = $365 a year $4 per flip win (EV of 50%) = $2*182.5 = $365
math works perfectly...but i digress
the $1 is guaranteed the $4 is not
the EV of a coin flip is 50/50 every time unlike a game. i think this is where we differ on opinions. i think you may be assuming a 50% EV on the last leg of the parlay. i don't think you can assume that
i do think the expected payouts on hitting big parlays over time will be more than the hedge will pay each time however...no one can guarantee a rate of success on hitting those big parlays yet the hedge works out 100% of the time because you lock in profit instead of keeping risk on the table
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
Can someone answer this for me please?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Koaj, Im curious.
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
Can someone answer this for me please?
I AGREEWITH YOU TOTTALY, 2 BAD OTHERS DONT THINK THE SAME WAY!
BEST SCENARIO IS TO BET DAY BY DAY!
NO HEDGING (ONLY FOR PEOPLE THAT SHIT IN THEIR PANTS) WHY DID THEY BET ON PARTICULAR BET AT FIRST PLACE IF THEY GONNA HEDGE LATER ON!????
MAKES NO SENSE!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Koaj, Im curious.
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
Can someone answer this for me please?
I AGREEWITH YOU TOTTALY, 2 BAD OTHERS DONT THINK THE SAME WAY!
BEST SCENARIO IS TO BET DAY BY DAY!
NO HEDGING (ONLY FOR PEOPLE THAT SHIT IN THEIR PANTS) WHY DID THEY BET ON PARTICULAR BET AT FIRST PLACE IF THEY GONNA HEDGE LATER ON!????
this same concept applies to all table games. Example: Insurance in Blackjack. You hit 21 but dealer is showing an Ace. You can take even money or ride it. Smarter to ride it out, then take the reduced payout over the long term. Same deal hedging w/ sports bets. It's always better not to in the long term.
The exception is what most people here are attempting to argue: in the short term. You shouldn't make short term decisions. To consistently make money in this market (essentially investing), you should only care about the long term. Keep a consistent strategy, stay disciplined and adhere to the right principles and you'll win money. Not just once, twice or a few times but consistently over long periods of time.
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this same concept applies to all table games. Example: Insurance in Blackjack. You hit 21 but dealer is showing an Ace. You can take even money or ride it. Smarter to ride it out, then take the reduced payout over the long term. Same deal hedging w/ sports bets. It's always better not to in the long term.
The exception is what most people here are attempting to argue: in the short term. You shouldn't make short term decisions. To consistently make money in this market (essentially investing), you should only care about the long term. Keep a consistent strategy, stay disciplined and adhere to the right principles and you'll win money. Not just once, twice or a few times but consistently over long periods of time.
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
Can someone answer this for me please?
KOAJ is write on what hes saying but is on a different page as to what you are saying van.
Wow i cant believe whats so hard to understand abt what Van is trying to say here.
Good advice van.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Koaj, Im curious.
There are 2 things we are talking about here. One is the value of hedging once you are in the situation.
The second is if you know ahead of time that you will hedge, why do you put the last game in the parlay to begin with when it pays more to leave it out for the same exact bet?
Can someone answer this for me please?
KOAJ is write on what hes saying but is on a different page as to what you are saying van.
Wow i cant believe whats so hard to understand abt what Van is trying to say here.
And all parlay players should also read van's thread about parlays stretched over a period of time ...... playing one game and rolling over winnings to another game on another day is better than playing 5 games on a single day .
Van
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And all parlay players should also read van's thread about parlays stretched over a period of time ...... playing one game and rolling over winnings to another game on another day is better than playing 5 games on a single day .
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