Posted:
#51
Good luck Van. 
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Wild Wild Wildcard Weekend....
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
You are getting the better offense, better defense, healthier team by a mile - as a dog. Sign me up.
You are getting the better offense, better defense, healthier team by a mile - as a dog. Sign me up.
And the Bucs are the home team. TB home field might not be worth as much as some other stadiums, but it's definitely worth something. I usually avoid betting on the NFL after Christmas, but the Bucs this week are one spot where I see tons and tons of value.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
1
Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Leaning your way on all Phins are last on my lean list, but no way I can lay point with KC. Tua won't be throwing bombs in the freezing night air....so Achane and Masterton gonna be running more.....KC wrs have been their downfall and they can't really make up for it because their running game is mediocre at best....Digging the under 44.....I dont think the winner scores more than 20.....
Leaning your way on all Phins are last on my lean list, but no way I can lay point with KC. Tua won't be throwing bombs in the freezing night air....so Achane and Masterton gonna be running more.....KC wrs have been their downfall and they can't really make up for it because their running game is mediocre at best....Digging the under 44.....I dont think the winner scores more than 20.....
Under 
KC hasn't given up more than 24 points at home all season....don't see this as the type of game where that doesn't happen. 20-17 KC or something similar
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by Trinkster:
KC better QB,coach,running game,defense,kicking game,Arrowhead, and Mahomes loves playing in cold weather{Tua from Hawaii lol) anything is possible but it's KC or no bet
I'll take Mostert and Achane over Pacheco & Helaire....O lines roughly the same imo....everyone gonna be playing the cold weather angle....but KC without a legit wr threat is mediocre team that gets the Mahomes boost....teams have figured them out for the most part
KC better QB,coach,running game,defense,kicking game,Arrowhead, and Mahomes loves playing in cold weather{Tua from Hawaii lol) anything is possible but it's KC or no bet
3
Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
As promised, I am trying to get these up early. I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this. Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly. Final NFL Regular Season Record +64.25 units * Bucs +3 (4 units) 3.5 (4.5), 2.5 (3)* Texans +2.75 (3.5 units) 3 (4), 2.5 (3), 2 (2.5)* Steelers +9.75 (2.5 units) 10.5 (3), 8 (2)* Cowboys -7.5 (2 units) -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)* Dolphins +4.5 (2 units) 5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)* Rams +3.25 (1 unit) 3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet) I will be around to write-up / discuss all. Just wanted to get them up early.
Thanks Van the Man As promised, I am trying to get these up early. I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this. Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly. Final NFL Regular Season Record +64.25 units * Bucs +3 (4 units) 3.5 (4.5), 2.5 (3)* Texans +2.75 (3.5 units) 3 (4), 2.5 (3), 2 (2.5)* Steelers +9.75 (2.5 units) 10.5 (3), 8 (2)* Cowboys -7.5 (2 units) -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)* Dolphins +4.5 (2 units) 5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)* Rams +3.25 (1 unit) 3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet) I will be around to write-up / discuss all. Just wanted to get them up early.
checking back in tomorrow
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by jhoss00:
@vanzack Will you be taking any ML positions on any of these dogs?
@vanzack Will you be taking any ML positions on any of these dogs?
Dolphins at +200 is worth a stab.I put some on it. Anything that's over +200 and we get teams that are nearly on equal footing is value i'll take it. KC is shockingly 5-4 at home
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
Posted:
#65
@vanzack
Longtime follower and admirer of your work. I'm sure I speak for many, but you are seriously the only person that keeps me coming back to covers.
I know you already provide more than the people here deserve, so I don't want to come off as annoying. But I was wondering if you ever utilize your analysis to identify soft player prop lines?
Also, would love to hear some of your favorite future bets (in terms of best value) as we enter the playoffs. Thank you for your service!!
2
Posted:
#66
Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:
Excellent season Vanzack. Agree with 5 of 6. Trusting Tua in big games and extremely cold conditions is a difficult to buy. The Dolphins are a banged up unit
Excellent season Vanzack. Agree with 5 of 6. Trusting Tua in big games and extremely cold conditions is a difficult to buy. The Dolphins are a banged up unit
This statement is so overrated..The reason why Dolphins have a bad record vs winning team/big games this season..Is Tyreke Hill...In the 4-5 biggest games this season -Eagles/Chiefs/Cowboys/Raven/Bills.....Tyreke Hill has had his 4-5 worse games..So many big time drops...3-4 Td drops..Numerous big time drops in key situations...Bills game alone he drops a 3rd and 7 conversion in the 4th quarter at the midfield that hit him right in the chest...Dolphins have to punt Yet they blaming Tua and McDaniel......Last drive of the game he drops a slant over the middle that would have been a massive gain to the Bills 20 yard line or possible TD...Vs the Ravens he drops a layup TD that would have put the Dolphins up 14-7 2nd quarter...Vs the Eagles drops a walk in TD at the goal line that he catches and then his knee knocks the ball out of his own hands while he's at the 2 yard line with noone around him to tie the game late 3rd quarter Dolphins get no points as they go for it on 4th down and refs don't call a face mask penalty on the DB..... Even on the TUA int to end the game vs the Bills..Tyreke takes himself out of the game on the biggest drive of the season
with No Waddle forcing Tua to throw to Claypool as the #1 receiver who runs a lazy route....Chiefs game in Germany he fumbles and KC returns it for a 65 yard TD - 10 point swing.. and he has 2 big drops in that game..........If he could catch the ball in big games...This narrative would be different...Guys is hobbled but he has dropped key passes in big games...He makes $30 million and is the highest paid WR but comes up very small in big games...
Mayweather bet 450000 on
2
Posted:
#67
"Big time drops"..... Yep, that is Tyreek. You get the good that is great and you get the bad that is worst. He can be the greatest player on your team and the most frustrating at the same time.
One thing Tua needs to learn is he can't toss it up there for him and try to get him to high point the ball. This isn't Justin Jefferson he's throwing to, he's not gonna win many jump balls.
To be fair in the Bills game, they didn't have Waddle which completely changes the defense's coverage vs. Tyreek, plus....dude's house almost burned down cause he's one of those people who can't replace his fire alarm batteries.
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
1
Posted:
#75
@vanzack
The NFL has told Cleveland to be ready to host the Steelers/Bills game. There is a chance this game gets moved to Cleveland.
Weather would not be much different being they are 193 miles apart and the stadium in Cleveland is right on the water where they get the same lake-effect snow that Buffalo gets.
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