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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Wild Wild Wildcard Weekend....

    «First Previous 567 ... 151617 Next Last»
    vanzack
    Boned860
    kcblitzkrieg
    Chef_BoyarG
    TRAIN69
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
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    «First Previous 567 ... 151617 Next Last»
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 2:26 PM ET #101

    Quote Originally Posted by Bay2LA:

    I think you are going to sweep the card this week and as such I’m going to take these all straight and parlay them

    Is this good news or bad news?

    an_timeout

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bay2LA:

    I think you are going to sweep the card this week and as such I’m going to take these all straight and parlay them

    Is this good news or bad news?

    an_timeout

     
    Boned860
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 2:37 PM ET #102

    BOL on all your plays! Totally agree with Tampa Bay.

    Not sure why people are trying to paint a different picture when Philly continues to show their true colors…

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    BOL on all your plays! Totally agree with Tampa Bay.

    Not sure why people are trying to paint a different picture when Philly continues to show their true colors…

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 2:38 PM ET #103

    Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996....

    Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out.....

    Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated.

    https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996....

    Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out.....

    Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated.

    https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 2:39 PM ET #104

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996.... Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out..... Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated. https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959

    Micah gonna be EATIN come Sunday peace_5

    You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Would love to post this here but of course I cant because Lou is still soaking in his hot tub since 1996.... Before you bet Packers / Cowboys - check this out..... Pack #1 in NFL in quick pressures allowed (under 2.5 seconds), Cowboys #1 in NFL in quick pressures generated. https://twitter.com/coversvanzack/status/1745892573204389959

    Micah gonna be EATIN come Sunday peace_5

     
    Chef_BoyarG
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 6:23 PM ET #105

    Van, as you probably know, Stroud has some of the widest splits in the league when it comes to facing Zone vs. Man coverage. He's one of the league's best vs Zone but falls off a cliff vs. Man*. Cleveland D is one of the better man coverage units in the league, and they play Cover 1 (man) majority of the time (44%). 

    You feel confident he can overcome that in this matchup? Is it due to Garrett being less than 100%?

    *"Stroud has really struggled when facing man coverage and ranks in just the 17th percentile against that scheme. However, Stroud has absolutely shredded zone coverage, producing 89th-percentile output." Source: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-18-best-bets-back-the-texans-to-beat-the-colts-and-clinch-an-afc-playoff-berth#:~:text=A%20key%20factor%20in%20projecting,17th%20percentile%20against%20that%20scheme

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    Van, as you probably know, Stroud has some of the widest splits in the league when it comes to facing Zone vs. Man coverage. He's one of the league's best vs Zone but falls off a cliff vs. Man*. Cleveland D is one of the better man coverage units in the league, and they play Cover 1 (man) majority of the time (44%). 

    You feel confident he can overcome that in this matchup? Is it due to Garrett being less than 100%?

    *"Stroud has really struggled when facing man coverage and ranks in just the 17th percentile against that scheme. However, Stroud has absolutely shredded zone coverage, producing 89th-percentile output." Source: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-18-best-bets-back-the-texans-to-beat-the-colts-and-clinch-an-afc-playoff-berth#:~:text=A%20key%20factor%20in%20projecting,17th%20percentile%20against%20that%20scheme

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 6:28 PM ET #106

    @Chef_BoyarG

    The way I see it....

    If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win.  So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw.  If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong.

    It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage.  Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.

    peace_5

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    @Chef_BoyarG

    The way I see it....

    If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win.  So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw.  If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong.

    It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage.  Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.

    peace_5

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 6:32 PM ET #107

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    @Chef_BoyarG The way I see it.... If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win.  So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw.  If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong. It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage.  Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.
    I dont think a 15ish game sample size (didn't play in 2 games and got knocked out of another) is enough to make those stats meaningful. Hes dealt with injuries to both himself and all of his receivers at some point.....not to mention the first 4-6 getting acclimated to the NFL game while having a mediocre at best running attack. I wouldn't "trust" those stats until maybe the end of next season or year 3. Way too many moving parts to prove a hypothesis with such limited data.

     

     

    But what do I know.....an_roll_laugh

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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    @Chef_BoyarG The way I see it.... If the Texans cant run, the Texans cant win.  So while I did consider all of the coverage splits as I always do - in this case - the Texans have to run to be able to throw.  If Stroud has 30+ pass attempts something has gone wrong. It is kind of weird that Stroud is not good against man coverage.  Im not 100% sure I buy in to the validity - but the stat is the stat.
    I dont think a 15ish game sample size (didn't play in 2 games and got knocked out of another) is enough to make those stats meaningful. Hes dealt with injuries to both himself and all of his receivers at some point.....not to mention the first 4-6 getting acclimated to the NFL game while having a mediocre at best running attack. I wouldn't "trust" those stats until maybe the end of next season or year 3. Way too many moving parts to prove a hypothesis with such limited data.

     

     

    But what do I know.....an_roll_laugh

     
    Chef_BoyarG
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 8:09 PM ET #108

    @TRAIN69

    Very true. I tried finding actual snap counts of how much Zone / Man coverage he's actually faced just to get a sense of that sample size, but regardless, your point that he simply hasn't played many games yet still holds.

     

     

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    @TRAIN69

    Very true. I tried finding actual snap counts of how much Zone / Man coverage he's actually faced just to get a sense of that sample size, but regardless, your point that he simply hasn't played many games yet still holds.

     

     

     
    Chef_BoyarG
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 8:15 PM ET #109

    @vanzack

    Makes sense, thanks for the perspective. While I have concerns with how Stroud/offense will do, I'm definitely more optimistic about the other side of the ball. Flacco's run has been insane to watch, but seems unsustainable. Multiple turnover-worthy plays every game will usually burn you in the postseason on the road. Also not sure how Flacco has survived largely untouched behind that battered O-line, but if Anderson/Greenard are healthy, feels like that will finally catch up to Flacco as well. 

    I'll be on Hou with ya. Good luck peace_5

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    @vanzack

    Makes sense, thanks for the perspective. While I have concerns with how Stroud/offense will do, I'm definitely more optimistic about the other side of the ball. Flacco's run has been insane to watch, but seems unsustainable. Multiple turnover-worthy plays every game will usually burn you in the postseason on the road. Also not sure how Flacco has survived largely untouched behind that battered O-line, but if Anderson/Greenard are healthy, feels like that will finally catch up to Flacco as well. 

    I'll be on Hou with ya. Good luck peace_5

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 9:42 PM ET #110

    @Chef_BoyarG

     What exact measures are you looking at?

    Against COVER 1 he has 85 attempts with a rating of 105.3 at 6th and ANY/A of 8.8 for 4th.

    Against all coverage except COVER 1 he has 414 attempts with a rating of 99.9 at 8th and ANY/A of 7.2 at 5th.

    Some other numbers like PE/Play is lower and Comp% is lower.  Positive plays are about the same at 45.2 and 45.5.  

    But he seems to do well at attacking COVER 1.  Certainly, circumstance and timing matter when looking at it -- because it is very situational.  But I am wondering if a broad statement about it is accurate.

    Just curious exactly what you meant, or were looking at is all. peace_5

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    @Chef_BoyarG

     What exact measures are you looking at?

    Against COVER 1 he has 85 attempts with a rating of 105.3 at 6th and ANY/A of 8.8 for 4th.

    Against all coverage except COVER 1 he has 414 attempts with a rating of 99.9 at 8th and ANY/A of 7.2 at 5th.

    Some other numbers like PE/Play is lower and Comp% is lower.  Positive plays are about the same at 45.2 and 45.5.  

    But he seems to do well at attacking COVER 1.  Certainly, circumstance and timing matter when looking at it -- because it is very situational.  But I am wondering if a broad statement about it is accurate.

    Just curious exactly what you meant, or were looking at is all. peace_5

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 9:44 PM ET #111

    @vanzack

     Nice season and good luck in the playoffs! peace_5

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    @vanzack

     Nice season and good luck in the playoffs! peace_5

     
    brn2loslive2win
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 10:20 PM ET #112

    @Raiders22

     Good info as always. Who you taking this weekend? an_popcorn

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    @Raiders22

     Good info as always. Who you taking this weekend? an_popcorn

     
    Chef_BoyarG
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    Posted: Jan. 12, 2024 - 11:19 PM ET #113

    @Raiders22

    I linked the article I was referring to at the bottom of my post (PFF). Their article was using EPA+ as its measuring stat (as opposed to ANY/A), but still surprised to see it in such stark contrast with your ANY/A stats. Super interesting. Where can I find your #s?

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    @Raiders22

    I linked the article I was referring to at the bottom of my post (PFF). Their article was using EPA+ as its measuring stat (as opposed to ANY/A), but still surprised to see it in such stark contrast with your ANY/A stats. Super interesting. Where can I find your #s?

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 12:15 AM ET #114

    @Chef_BoyarG

     Gotcha.  See the link now.  Yes that will look at other things also.  For example, his comp% is lower and his PE/Play and WAR are as well.  But this is the case with a lot of QBs.  This is very situational in-game.

    But you are correct, in that his sack% does go up and the efficiency does go down.  But his TD% goes up and he has not thrown an interception against it.  So, he is smart with the ball and can beat the coverage with longer throws -- he just does not look to dump it as much and will throw it away or take the sack.  That is part of the reason the comp% drops off it looks like.  Those factor heavily into the rating.  Granted it is well less than 20% of attempts to sample from, but could still be a factor.

    It should be interesting how they match up because CLV is a tough matchup on D for anyone.  Their Pass Rush is very good and the Pass Defense is okay and the Rush Defense is good.  With him being a young guy in his first playoff game, it will be very interesting if they can get to him and make him get rid of the ball before he wants to or take a sack.  If he beats them deep a couple of times, it will also be interesting to see how CLV adjusts.

    peace_5

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    @Chef_BoyarG

     Gotcha.  See the link now.  Yes that will look at other things also.  For example, his comp% is lower and his PE/Play and WAR are as well.  But this is the case with a lot of QBs.  This is very situational in-game.

    But you are correct, in that his sack% does go up and the efficiency does go down.  But his TD% goes up and he has not thrown an interception against it.  So, he is smart with the ball and can beat the coverage with longer throws -- he just does not look to dump it as much and will throw it away or take the sack.  That is part of the reason the comp% drops off it looks like.  Those factor heavily into the rating.  Granted it is well less than 20% of attempts to sample from, but could still be a factor.

    It should be interesting how they match up because CLV is a tough matchup on D for anyone.  Their Pass Rush is very good and the Pass Defense is okay and the Rush Defense is good.  With him being a young guy in his first playoff game, it will be very interesting if they can get to him and make him get rid of the ball before he wants to or take a sack.  If he beats them deep a couple of times, it will also be interesting to see how CLV adjusts.

    peace_5

     
    PUSSYGALORE333
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 12:59 AM ET #115

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    As promised, I am trying to get these up early.  I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this. Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly. Final NFL Regular Season Record +64.25 units * Bucs         +3     (4 units)           3.5 (4.5), 2.5 (3)* Texans     +2.75  (3.5 units)       3 (4), 2.5 (3), 2 (2.5)* Steelers    +9.75 (2.5 units)       10.5 (3), 8 (2)* Cowboys    -7.5   (2 units)          -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)* Dolphins    +4.5   (2 units)          5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)* Rams         +3.25 (1 unit)          3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet) I will be around to write-up / discuss all.  Just wanted to get them up early.
       thanks for posting....IS THIS THE FINAL UPDATE ?          clover        peace_5

    goldfinger 1964
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    As promised, I am trying to get these up early.  I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this. Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly. Final NFL Regular Season Record +64.25 units * Bucs         +3     (4 units)           3.5 (4.5), 2.5 (3)* Texans     +2.75  (3.5 units)       3 (4), 2.5 (3), 2 (2.5)* Steelers    +9.75 (2.5 units)       10.5 (3), 8 (2)* Cowboys    -7.5   (2 units)          -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)* Dolphins    +4.5   (2 units)          5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)* Rams         +3.25 (1 unit)          3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet) I will be around to write-up / discuss all.  Just wanted to get them up early.
       thanks for posting....IS THIS THE FINAL UPDATE ?          clover        peace_5

     
    umgmu
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 3:57 AM ET #116

    Our man Van,

     

    Thanks for all you do peace_5

    Will be on a few...starting with houstonan_wink

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    Our man Van,

     

    Thanks for all you do peace_5

    Will be on a few...starting with houstonan_wink

     
    iceman67
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 5:33 AM ET #117

    GL to all of you,,  I have come to the conclusion that the KC/Miami game is not handicapable (is that a word?)  feels like -30F,,,  pffffft , who knows who's built to stand up to that nonsense.  Sh***t the ball isn't even the same.   Kind of a bummer IMO.  could have been a really great test for two exciting teams.  Now it seems like a war of attrition..  but who knows, maybe it will give us some unexpected plays.    

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    GL to all of you,,  I have come to the conclusion that the KC/Miami game is not handicapable (is that a word?)  feels like -30F,,,  pffffft , who knows who's built to stand up to that nonsense.  Sh***t the ball isn't even the same.   Kind of a bummer IMO.  could have been a really great test for two exciting teams.  Now it seems like a war of attrition..  but who knows, maybe it will give us some unexpected plays.    

     
    MrWhatsItToYa
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 5:43 AM ET #118

    @iceman67

     Ha,we got the iceman giving the cold a bad rap.But I hear you,at negative 30 nothing moves fast,and everything's a challenge to do.

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    @iceman67

     Ha,we got the iceman giving the cold a bad rap.But I hear you,at negative 30 nothing moves fast,and everything's a challenge to do.

     
    wolfeman3
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 5:54 AM ET #119

    @iceman67  Gervin!! Fantastic, I saw him live an_speechless 

     so wait, do I have to pay this Peacock outfit to watch??   Mia -3.5 (+310) is my play…peace_5 guessing Waddle no can play. Achane peace_5

    The impossible only takes longer….
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    @iceman67  Gervin!! Fantastic, I saw him live an_speechless 

     so wait, do I have to pay this Peacock outfit to watch??   Mia -3.5 (+310) is my play…peace_5 guessing Waddle no can play. Achane peace_5

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 11:03 AM ET #120

    AJ Brown officially out for Philly

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    AJ Brown officially out for Philly

     
    wolfeman3
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 11:32 AM ET #121

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    AJ Brown officially out for Philly

    in this situation, there isn’t a “next man up”. Big loss for a team fading fast.  

    The impossible only takes longer….
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    AJ Brown officially out for Philly

    in this situation, there isn’t a “next man up”. Big loss for a team fading fast.  

     
    robtri
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 12:51 PM ET #122

    Bills game moved to Monday due to weather. 

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    Bills game moved to Monday due to weather. 

     
    robtri
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 12:56 PM ET #123

    Question for Vanzack…if Rams stay at +3, is that a half unit play? Don’t understand I unit at 3.25? Please clarify. Thanks 

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    Question for Vanzack…if Rams stay at +3, is that a half unit play? Don’t understand I unit at 3.25? Please clarify. Thanks 

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 12:59 PM ET #124

    Quote Originally Posted by robtri:

    Question for Vanzack…if Rams stay at +3, is that a half unit play? Don’t understand I unit at 3.25? Please clarify. Thanks

    Half unit at +3, half unit at +3.5

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by robtri:

    Question for Vanzack…if Rams stay at +3, is that a half unit play? Don’t understand I unit at 3.25? Please clarify. Thanks

    Half unit at +3, half unit at +3.5

     
     
    cashin
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    Posted: Jan. 13, 2024 - 1:20 PM ET #125

    GL vanzack clover

    Enjoy reading your stuff & you've had a great season an_cheers

    Have a few of yours in teasers.

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    GL vanzack clover

    Enjoy reading your stuff & you've had a great season an_cheers

    Have a few of yours in teasers.

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