Week XV

For our purposes as bettors, if our team, say it's the Dolphins, fail SUATS this week despite a couple of very good angles, I don't dismiss them as bums, or that they didn't try or that the universe is punishing me....there might have been something collectively energetically that was off with the team at that particular time...or there might have been some illness on the team...doesn't matter for me to know exactly what the explanation was for their failure.

I often will back that team the following week in every circumstance except as a home favorite to balance out what transpired the previous week.  Remember the whole, "entities head toward balance" concept, right?   If a team has failed against the spread one week in a good situation, I will hope/expect a reversal the following week.   

It has proven successful in the short time I have tracked it....I'll consider taking that team that failed in a good situation for the next couple of weeks, as dogs especially.  Obviously if I feel there is something inhearently wrong with the organization, head coach, or the quarterback (for example I feel that way about Denver this season), I'll back away, but not most of the time.

Do the Panthers qualify for good energy?  Saw a interview with interim coach say the organization was trying to tank and players/coaches refused.  They beat Seahawks on the road.

@Indigo999

Teams that will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in the final two weeks of the season are 68-101-5 ATS against teams that have already been eliminated

@Indigo999

 Surprised ur not on niners

Thanks for insight and work. Like the Titans to show up strong in LA.

BOL,

RT2

Wow GT....that's a great stat, along the same vein as we've been discussing.

Pro players in their formative years would have been the biggest, baddest, most talented, with the biggest need to achieve.....they are the alphas dogs of society.  Letting their opponents win so that their organization could draft a guy that might be better than what they have now, who might replace them or a friend on the team would not sit right with them.....they wouldn't agree to it.

When people say tanking, a bunch of suits in an office might think it's a good idea, but players when they get onto the field are not wired that way, and if those suits were actually playing it'd be the same way for them.

I like them a lot.....the Titans are a very prideful team....Chargers have been known to have a tough time winning the line of scrimmage.

I think the Seahawks play the game of their lives tonight in from of their awesome home crowd.

@Indigo999

 From thread #17 that you posted

e)  A team on at least a 6 game winning streak, now an away favorite in December 20-34-1 ATS.....HOWEVER, on Thursdays they've been 4-1 ATS, 4-0 as away divisional favorites.....49ers

I see you like ATL. Does your formula account for a rookie QB making his first start? Will not be an easy feat on NO. 

No, there's nothing in the database that accounts for that.....we'll see if it comes back to bite me.

Thanks for stopping by.

True....I have no dog in the fight, opinion is that Seattle gets it done.

@Gochu4u

 This is when stats become meaningless and a waste of ones time.   It begins and ends with the line.
Indigo999 is using the most tools with the largest tool box on this site.  It Shocked me in a happy way to read two of his approaches.  Frank Rosenthal is the only other person I remember discussing those aspects of handicapping a game, or better way to phrase, finding a probable winner.  Another two aspects discussed are generally aspects looked at from a linemakers perspective.  PRO.

Hang Loose, 
Coffee & Donuts monday morning...

Fortyniners in control in the 4th quarter.  Fortyniners and Eagles are the two best teams in football right now, and are better than the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals or anyone else the AFC can put out there.

Sagarin have the Chiefs and Bills ranked higher by about a point than either the Eagles or 49ers.  I'm fine with that.

If it becomes the Eagles at home to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game I'd make it Eagles -2.

Congrats for those that backed the 49ers.

yes i know.  I never go on stats sir 

Bump 

Huh?? oh, a crystal ball capper....ok

Another angle specific to December going back the entire 30 years of the database.....

h)  An away Saturday December dog whose opponent is off a loss....21-7 ATS.......ON Colts, Ravens.....if this a divisional game this moves to 11-1 ATS.....ON Ravens

A bit of a concern with the Ravens as their quarterbacks have been dropping like flies,....and we could see the waterboy take a few snaps.

month = 12 and AD and day = Saturday and op:L and week

Adding one more:

6)  Ravens +3

__________________

1)  Falcons +4

2)  Cardinals +3, -120

3)  Jaguars +4'

4)  Houston +14

5)  Titans +3, -115

I thought of a media personality that is worth listening to and possibly following with your betting stake.

Scott Van Pelt.....74-53-3 ATS, 58.27% this season......very good.

The Bear has also had an excellent season in college football, after being horrible last season.....just don't bet his moneyline dogs which are about 1-18 straight up last time I checked.

The rest of them?.....you'd be better off asking your dog who'll cover the spread.......you would,  however, be up multiple, multiple units if you faded Matt Barrie and Joey Galloway HARD, which I will do if they have them on next year.

I don't get it with ESPN etc......are Barrie and Galloway the only two guys that they can fit into a suit?.....they are an embarrassment, though they show in an excellent way the thinking process of a losing bettor, so there's that.

Vikings getting crushed....which, if that result holds will put them back into the third seed behind the 49ers.....Vikings have the Giants next week, and then go to Chicago and Green Bay to finish the season and I doubt they'll be able to bypass the 49ers.

Fortyniners have the Commanders, then go to Vegas and then the Cardinals at home, so it'd be a pretty big shock if they couldn't hold second place.

Obviously that would give the 49ers home field in the second round if they win in the first round, possibly versus the Vikes.

I have a +342 ticket on the 49ers to win the NFC.......and would hold it until the NFC title game if they won their first two playoff games with hedging a possibility in the finale.

@Indigo999

Disregard that last post!!....lol.....Colts snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, doing everything they possibly could to lose the game.

Vikings still second seeds,.......for now.

So, you want to be a sports better, eh?

6)  Ravens +3.......................loser

1)  Falcons +4.......................winner

2)  Cardinals +3, -120...........loser

3)  Jaguars +4'.....................winner

4)  Houston +14..................winner

5)  Titans +3, -115..............tie

3-2-1 for the week, 103-72 ATS for the season