99-69 ATS for the season, 4-7 ATS for last week with NE -1, and NE/AZ OVER pending.
Will curtail this weekly NFL thing for the rest of the regular season as this part of the season is when you can toss back hard earned profits back to your friendly-neighborhood bookie, and in my younger days, I frequently did. Hopefully with age comes wisdom.
Next season I will be offering my services professionally, and my football posting will still happen here, but to a much lesser extent. I will be concentrating now on college basketball in which for the past 10 years the set of parameters I use have averaged a 60% hit rate, generating 80+ plays per month, with the best performing month being January.
NFL Angles.....
a) A home favorite who will be an underdog their next two games have been 391-623-25 ATS, 38.6%,..............this becomes 139-252-7 ATS, 35.5% (-3.47) if this is a divisional matchup, 210-188 straight up, average line -4.6, average score 21.2-20.
This has been 22-52 ATS since 2014, though only 3-4 ATS in 2022......VERSUS Saints
HF and n:D and nn:D and week<17 and DIV
b) A divisional away dog in 2022 that has lost their past two road games.....11-0 ATS (with winners yesterday on the Jaguars and Jets).....ON Dolphins, Giants, Falcons.....Giants have overwhelming public support according to KOC stats so probably will filter them out as a possible play, we'll see what the public support percentages will be at the end of the week, generally any dog with greater than 60% public support gets filtered out.
AD and tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and DIV and season=2022
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
99-69 ATS for the season, 4-7 ATS for last week with NE -1, and NE/AZ OVER pending.
Will curtail this weekly NFL thing for the rest of the regular season as this part of the season is when you can toss back hard earned profits back to your friendly-neighborhood bookie, and in my younger days, I frequently did. Hopefully with age comes wisdom.
Next season I will be offering my services professionally, and my football posting will still happen here, but to a much lesser extent. I will be concentrating now on college basketball in which for the past 10 years the set of parameters I use have averaged a 60% hit rate, generating 80+ plays per month, with the best performing month being January.
NFL Angles.....
a) A home favorite who will be an underdog their next two games have been 391-623-25 ATS, 38.6%,..............this becomes 139-252-7 ATS, 35.5% (-3.47) if this is a divisional matchup, 210-188 straight up, average line -4.6, average score 21.2-20.
This has been 22-52 ATS since 2014, though only 3-4 ATS in 2022......VERSUS Saints
HF and n:D and nn:D and week<17 and DIV
b) A divisional away dog in 2022 that has lost their past two road games.....11-0 ATS (with winners yesterday on the Jaguars and Jets).....ON Dolphins, Giants, Falcons.....Giants have overwhelming public support according to KOC stats so probably will filter them out as a possible play, we'll see what the public support percentages will be at the end of the week, generally any dog with greater than 60% public support gets filtered out.
We split our two plays on MNF to move to 100-70 ATS overall....there was about a three week stretch where we used some multi-unit plays with not very spectacular results, but for the most part the above record is from 1 unit plays. If I used a team as a two unit play I denoted either 2 wins or losses depending on the results.
Home dogs have been very good this season after not being good for quite a long time....they've been 44-32-3 ATS and 23-53-3 o/u
c) Home dogs that missed the playoffs last season.....35-22-2 ATS, 16-41-2 o/u.....Seahawks, Bears, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets.......although this is only 3-4 ATS and UNDERs, that hit over 75% of the time this year, have regressed to the mean in December so far as well.
Play:
1) Falcons +4
We split our two plays on MNF to move to 100-70 ATS overall....there was about a three week stretch where we used some multi-unit plays with not very spectacular results, but for the most part the above record is from 1 unit plays. If I used a team as a two unit play I denoted either 2 wins or losses depending on the results.
Home dogs have been very good this season after not being good for quite a long time....they've been 44-32-3 ATS and 23-53-3 o/u
c) Home dogs that missed the playoffs last season.....35-22-2 ATS, 16-41-2 o/u.....Seahawks, Bears, Texans, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets.......although this is only 3-4 ATS and UNDERs, that hit over 75% of the time this year, have regressed to the mean in December so far as well.
Atl is due... to say the least.... thanks for your time and efforts. I found ya after your ‘good’ part of the record... but have tailed mostly last few weeks ... atl owes me.
Atl is due... to say the least.... thanks for your time and efforts. I found ya after your ‘good’ part of the record... but have tailed mostly last few weeks ... atl owes me.
Atl is due... to say the least.... thanks for your time and efforts. I found ya after your ‘good’ part of the record... but have tailed mostly last few weeks ... atl owes me.
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
@Indigo999 GL in your future endeavors Will miss some of your insight
Thanks for all your well wishes.....they'll still be free content exactly similar to what I've been doing, but I will be charging clients for the games I deem worthy of a play,...you'll be able to find me online.
Besides home dogs being great this year, the one time of the year that they've historically been very good is late in the year, especially taking them as big dogs........
d) Home non-divisional dogs of greater than 7 points after week 12 that missed the playoffs last season and won less than 8 games last season.....26-14-1 ATS........Bears, Texans,....these teams have been 7-3-1 ATS in week 15, however they've also only gone 1-10 straight up, so those people thinking they'll get a free holiday vacation by going moneyline on one of these HUGE dogs, it's more likely you'd be sending your bookie on one instead.
Otherwise, with all the other parameters the same except that our line is <=7, those sides have only been 79-81-4 ATS
As often is the case, the sides most difficult to play have been the most profitable.
HD and tpS(playoffs) = 0.0 and line>7 and week>12 and PRSW <= 7 and day=Sunday and playoffs=0 and not DIV
Quote Originally Posted by KevinSingNgo22:
Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u:
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
Atl is due... to say the least.... thanks for your time and efforts. I found ya after your ‘good’ part of the record... but have tailed mostly last few weeks ... atl owes me.
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
@Indigo999 GL in your future endeavors Will miss some of your insight
Thanks for all your well wishes.....they'll still be free content exactly similar to what I've been doing, but I will be charging clients for the games I deem worthy of a play,...you'll be able to find me online.
Besides home dogs being great this year, the one time of the year that they've historically been very good is late in the year, especially taking them as big dogs........
d) Home non-divisional dogs of greater than 7 points after week 12 that missed the playoffs last season and won less than 8 games last season.....26-14-1 ATS........Bears, Texans,....these teams have been 7-3-1 ATS in week 15, however they've also only gone 1-10 straight up, so those people thinking they'll get a free holiday vacation by going moneyline on one of these HUGE dogs, it's more likely you'd be sending your bookie on one instead.
Otherwise, with all the other parameters the same except that our line is <=7, those sides have only been 79-81-4 ATS
As often is the case, the sides most difficult to play have been the most profitable.
HD and tpS(playoffs) = 0.0 and line>7 and week>12 and PRSW <= 7 and day=Sunday and playoffs=0 and not DIV
Must win......we are saturated with teams' playoff possibilities, and hear all the time how the Lions, Jets, etc., have not to the playoffs in x amount of years.
Another handicapper has mentioned this on his site that teams in December in "must-win" situations....to get into the playoffs, to clinch a high playoff seed, etc., playing a team out of the playoff picture cover only 32% of the time.
We are at that time of year!
I don't really have a way of quantifying that on my database, but will make note of teams in must-win situations, and even those teams there could be debate if they qualify.
The main thrust of this situation is do the opposite of what the media is saying, which is..............
"Team X will be giving supreme effort today needing this game to qualify for ___________in the postseason, playing Team Y that were were eliminated from playoff contention a couple of weeks ago."
You want to be considering Team Y.........trying too hard against a loose opponent is a thing.
I have heard of handicappers that do nothing else but bet against the media narrative, or media statistics.
Don't follow the herd.....be one of the weird ones.
Must win......we are saturated with teams' playoff possibilities, and hear all the time how the Lions, Jets, etc., have not to the playoffs in x amount of years.
Another handicapper has mentioned this on his site that teams in December in "must-win" situations....to get into the playoffs, to clinch a high playoff seed, etc., playing a team out of the playoff picture cover only 32% of the time.
We are at that time of year!
I don't really have a way of quantifying that on my database, but will make note of teams in must-win situations, and even those teams there could be debate if they qualify.
The main thrust of this situation is do the opposite of what the media is saying, which is..............
"Team X will be giving supreme effort today needing this game to qualify for ___________in the postseason, playing Team Y that were were eliminated from playoff contention a couple of weeks ago."
You want to be considering Team Y.........trying too hard against a loose opponent is a thing.
I have heard of handicappers that do nothing else but bet against the media narrative, or media statistics.
Don't follow the herd.....be one of the weird ones.
Thanks for the feedback........this time of the year is interesting, as injuries and fatique can cause some real surprises....I suppose what I'm most interested in is one team that needs to win, versus another that is out of contention, obviously the "try-too-hard angle is negated when both teams need to win....theoretically the Colts, Raiders, Packers, etc., are still in the mix as you say, so perhaps this is one week too early.....leaning Colts though.
This must-win angle will become more defined after this week's games.
Interesting that you think Houston is tanking....there is no definitive generational talent to tank for this season, I think they are just bad and have traded assets for picks like the 76ers and the Thunder have done, and if you get enough of them, you're bound to hit on some. Feeling like getting the number one pick is the pot of gold historically hasn't worked. If one went back in the history of the NFL, drafting 3rd versus drafting number one, I bet has not made one iota of difference. You would think GMs would know this, but I'm not so sure. Getting a coach is much more important than getting what is considered to be the best player for the next season. How much better would the Texans be if they hired Mike McDonald rather than Lovie?
I'm leaning towards taking the Texans this week.
Thanks for the feedback........this time of the year is interesting, as injuries and fatique can cause some real surprises....I suppose what I'm most interested in is one team that needs to win, versus another that is out of contention, obviously the "try-too-hard angle is negated when both teams need to win....theoretically the Colts, Raiders, Packers, etc., are still in the mix as you say, so perhaps this is one week too early.....leaning Colts though.
This must-win angle will become more defined after this week's games.
Interesting that you think Houston is tanking....there is no definitive generational talent to tank for this season, I think they are just bad and have traded assets for picks like the 76ers and the Thunder have done, and if you get enough of them, you're bound to hit on some. Feeling like getting the number one pick is the pot of gold historically hasn't worked. If one went back in the history of the NFL, drafting 3rd versus drafting number one, I bet has not made one iota of difference. You would think GMs would know this, but I'm not so sure. Getting a coach is much more important than getting what is considered to be the best player for the next season. How much better would the Texans be if they hired Mike McDonald rather than Lovie?
e) A team on at least a 6 game winning streak, now an away favorite in December 20-34-1 ATS.....HOWEVER, on Thursdays they've been 4-1 ATS, 4-0 as away divisional favorites.....49ers
f) A December away off a home win that has won five out of their last six games, playing a non-divisional opponent....34-51-1 ATS.....VERSUS Bengals, Cowboys, Lions
e) A team on at least a 6 game winning streak, now an away favorite in December 20-34-1 ATS.....HOWEVER, on Thursdays they've been 4-1 ATS, 4-0 as away divisional favorites.....49ers
f) A December away off a home win that has won five out of their last six games, playing a non-divisional opponent....34-51-1 ATS.....VERSUS Bengals, Cowboys, Lions
3) Cardinals +3, -120......we'll find out this week if the Broncos' issues this season has largely been on Russell Wilson (assuming he is out) or on Nat Hackett.....I lean towards the latter, mostly. We're also backing the Kliff Kingsbury Jeckyl and Hyde phenomena, where he can't seem to stand home cooking, but loves to go on the road. He's 15-4 ATS as an away dog in any month but January and 9-2 as an away non-divisional dog. He's also 8-2 ATS and 7-3 straight up as an away dog off a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a non-divisional away dog.
Broncos go 0 for 6 in the redzone.......Cardinals win 11-10.
__________________________
1) Falcons +4
Plays:
2) Texans +14
3) Cardinals +3, -120......we'll find out this week if the Broncos' issues this season has largely been on Russell Wilson (assuming he is out) or on Nat Hackett.....I lean towards the latter, mostly. We're also backing the Kliff Kingsbury Jeckyl and Hyde phenomena, where he can't seem to stand home cooking, but loves to go on the road. He's 15-4 ATS as an away dog in any month but January and 9-2 as an away non-divisional dog. He's also 8-2 ATS and 7-3 straight up as an away dog off a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a non-divisional away dog.
Broncos go 0 for 6 in the redzone.......Cardinals win 11-10.
@Indigo999 Add eagles...playing for #1 seed vs bears Huge Dallas game on deck Look for league/refs to get dallas/philly wins if they in trouble so the game on Christmas eve has insane playoff implications
Do you have any data supporting this theory?
Is there a way to track the referees penalty calls?
Just to be clear, the info that you put put for us is rock solid data, every week. I appreciate it, as I assume most others do as well.
But that sentence in bold is an opinion, unless there is data supporting it.
If anything does look shady between Dallas/Jax or Philly/Chicago, I'll be the first one back to eat crow.
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
@Indigo999 Add eagles...playing for #1 seed vs bears Huge Dallas game on deck Look for league/refs to get dallas/philly wins if they in trouble so the game on Christmas eve has insane playoff implications
Do you have any data supporting this theory?
Is there a way to track the referees penalty calls?
Just to be clear, the info that you put put for us is rock solid data, every week. I appreciate it, as I assume most others do as well.
But that sentence in bold is an opinion, unless there is data supporting it.
If anything does look shady between Dallas/Jax or Philly/Chicago, I'll be the first one back to eat crow.
maybe tanking not exactly correct.....not trying very hard to win might be better way to word it
There is definitely value in #1 vs #3...significant value...especially if they don't take the DT and trade out....they can hold offer from teams after the DT or a QB
Will Anderson the dt ? Drawing a blank on his name from Bama
And then Bryce Young or whatever the qb from Bama name is...he should go top 3 if he declares
This doesn't have much to do with this week and cheifs don't need a blowout they just need a W so 14 should have the backdoor open all game
GL
@Indigo999
maybe tanking not exactly correct.....not trying very hard to win might be better way to word it
There is definitely value in #1 vs #3...significant value...especially if they don't take the DT and trade out....they can hold offer from teams after the DT or a QB
Will Anderson the dt ? Drawing a blank on his name from Bama
And then Bryce Young or whatever the qb from Bama name is...he should go top 3 if he declares
This doesn't have much to do with this week and cheifs don't need a blowout they just need a W so 14 should have the backdoor open all game
Very interested to see how these team do next week if they LOSE this week
Raiders
Steelers
Packers
Browns
Colts
If they lose this week they truly have nothing the coach can use for motivation as far as "the seasons still alive boys play your guts out"....this week all 5 coaches still have that to pound home...."we still in it boys"...be interesting to see how they do this week now that I wrote this
@Indigo999
Very interested to see how these team do next week if they LOSE this week
Raiders
Steelers
Packers
Browns
Colts
If they lose this week they truly have nothing the coach can use for motivation as far as "the seasons still alive boys play your guts out"....this week all 5 coaches still have that to pound home...."we still in it boys"...be interesting to see how they do this week now that I wrote this
Opinion for sure...but maybe an iffy automatic 1st down call (defensive holding, DPI) or a iffy roughing the passer call to keep a drive alive at any point in the game.
I'm not into rigging/rigged games but I do believe that the referees, especially in NBA and NFL, have a massive ability to influence a game in any direction they desire.
I feel the league wants to keep as many fan bases involved as long as possible to keep viewership as high as possible for as long as possible...its all about the benjamins for them at the end of the day.
The extra game helps achieve that effect even more, with the extra playoff slot and only 1 bye as well
@undermysac
Opinion for sure...but maybe an iffy automatic 1st down call (defensive holding, DPI) or a iffy roughing the passer call to keep a drive alive at any point in the game.
I'm not into rigging/rigged games but I do believe that the referees, especially in NBA and NFL, have a massive ability to influence a game in any direction they desire.
I feel the league wants to keep as many fan bases involved as long as possible to keep viewership as high as possible for as long as possible...its all about the benjamins for them at the end of the day.
The extra game helps achieve that effect even more, with the extra playoff slot and only 1 bye as well
I don't subscribe to the theory that players tank, but referees influencing a game?.... that I do............where that influence is coming from, whether it be league office, television execs or gamblers, I don't have an opinion.
You see it in the NBA, the team that is behind gets every call in the last three minutes of a game.....that part of the NBA is the very predictable. I have not looked into taking (betting) teams down 7 or less points in the last three minutes of a NBA game, but it probably would be worth someone's while.
Using "the league is rigged" rationale is counterproductive to betting success. If subconsciously you think there are rogue elements in something you are putting money on, you've have got a built-in excuse that you can give yourself if you lose.
It takes away the self-examination that takes place when one loses. If you think "I did everything right, but what can you do, the powers-that-be took over and of course I lost.".....that bettor is always going to fall short, because a; he doesn't think he can win and b; he doesn't do self-evaluation that leads to improved methodology and performance.
Of course there will be games, and weeks where one puts in the time, they've shunted the emotions of greed and fear away, etc., etc., and they still lose.
That is normal bet life.
Those with good methodology will know that if they keep doing the right thing over and over during a span of time they will be successful. I think sometimes that those that consistently cry "rigged" are really those that haven't developed a method of winning in that particular sport. Maybe their observational skills are poor, their ability to resonate with how the human psyche reacts to situations is bad, or perhaps their grasp of the use of math or history in handicapping is not there. A good capper better be good at at least one of those and preferably two or three.
I know that in betting baseball for example, I've never won at it consistently and I never seem to get "lucky"...I could see someone who has worked out a way to beat it being on the opposite side of me in those either-way games.....lol
I don't subscribe to the theory that players tank, but referees influencing a game?.... that I do............where that influence is coming from, whether it be league office, television execs or gamblers, I don't have an opinion.
You see it in the NBA, the team that is behind gets every call in the last three minutes of a game.....that part of the NBA is the very predictable. I have not looked into taking (betting) teams down 7 or less points in the last three minutes of a NBA game, but it probably would be worth someone's while.
Using "the league is rigged" rationale is counterproductive to betting success. If subconsciously you think there are rogue elements in something you are putting money on, you've have got a built-in excuse that you can give yourself if you lose.
It takes away the self-examination that takes place when one loses. If you think "I did everything right, but what can you do, the powers-that-be took over and of course I lost.".....that bettor is always going to fall short, because a; he doesn't think he can win and b; he doesn't do self-evaluation that leads to improved methodology and performance.
Of course there will be games, and weeks where one puts in the time, they've shunted the emotions of greed and fear away, etc., etc., and they still lose.
That is normal bet life.
Those with good methodology will know that if they keep doing the right thing over and over during a span of time they will be successful. I think sometimes that those that consistently cry "rigged" are really those that haven't developed a method of winning in that particular sport. Maybe their observational skills are poor, their ability to resonate with how the human psyche reacts to situations is bad, or perhaps their grasp of the use of math or history in handicapping is not there. A good capper better be good at at least one of those and preferably two or three.
I know that in betting baseball for example, I've never won at it consistently and I never seem to get "lucky"...I could see someone who has worked out a way to beat it being on the opposite side of me in those either-way games.....lol
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