13) Colts/Broncos OVER 42........loser
1) Bears +7
2) Texans +7
3) Saints -5
4) Steelers +14
5) Bengals +3
6) Browns +3
7) Colts +3 one unit, Colts +3' one unit......winner, winner,....must be livin' right....feel very fortunate to be a winner.
8) Cowboys +5
9) Falcons +8'
10) Bengals OVER 48
11) Bears OVER 42'
12) Chiefs OVER 51
I've got three primetime OVERs....the first one was not even close...if these other two that are in great situations don't win I'm off OVERs in primetime for the rest of the year.
Thanks, better to be lucky than good sometimes.....
It'd be very difficult to want to back either of these two teams, with the o-line of Indy now in the bottom 7 in the league, I'd go with Foles to quarterback them to give them a threat of a run from the quarterback position. If the Colts remain favored at home versus the Jaguars next week it'll be a multi-unit play on Jacksonville.....Broncos go to the Chargers....bookmaker is gonna have to put up a HUGE line to get balanced action on that game.....I'd make those two lines next week.........
Colts +3 36
Broncos +9.5 39
Whatdaya reckon JC would you take the Jags and Chargers at those numbers?
As far as the Broncos go, they are in a worse situation than the Colts....they play in a very tough division, I'm now convinced Russell Wilson has lost it (I'm a slow learner), but even worse, he thinks he still has "it". Wilson's three biggest attributes used to be he never got sacked as he had uncanny pocket presence, he kept plays alive with his legs, plus he was a super accurate thrower....he doesn't have any of that anymore....he looks fat and slow. His coach I think is turning over the playcalling to Wilson and they can't do anything right inside the 20 or when game deciding decisions need to be made.
At the end of regulation, with 2:19 left with Denver possessing the ball on 3rd down and 3 and no timeouts left for Indy, you have to run the ball on 3rd down, which you either get the FD or face fourth down at the two minute warning and less than 3 yards to go. If you don't get it on third down you can win the game with a first down on fourth down or you kick to go up 6....the LAST THING you do is throw the ball into the endzone, even getting a touchdown is a worse play than getting the first down because it keeps the game alive. It looked like Wilson was playing hero ball.
Once you own the ball on first down inside of 2 minutes when your opponent has no timeouts, it is three kneeldowns, and the game is over.
Let's look at the public and who they are on. Bettors get very uptight when discussing the public and its relevance...the two main aggravations are that "you don't know if those public consensus numbers are right!" and, "it's the amount of money bet, NOT the percentage of bets made that matter". The longer I've bet, the more I think it makes a difference.
Those that think it 100% irrelevant have no hesitation letting others know that everyone else in the universe "should" consider public betting analysis to be useless as well.....haha. You can think it's not important and I think it can be, how about if we disagree mate?
As I've said before, differing opinions make a market...when others disagree with you and your methodology, be thankful....most of us have seen that when a vast majority agree with our opinion it often ends badly, both for us, and for them. If 96% of bettors are losers, do we really think agreeing with the majority is a good idea?
I am of the belief that betting against the public will give you an edge, not a huge one, but maybe a 5-10% edge, so we'll be right 52-55% of the time just doing that and we'll be wrong 45-48% of the time.....every percentage point helps the bottom line. This season those ugly dogs have covered closer to 60-62% of the time, so it bears tracking at the very least.
I've got one public dog this weekend in the NFL, the Cowboys,...typically road non-divisional dogs with a winning record though they look really nice, are low percentage plays........we'll see how this one works out.
I am listing my plays and the public betting percentage on them. If you've been following me, you know I am not that great of a line shopper, I probably do that at a less than average level, I get in early, and because I am on teams/games that the public doesn't like the line often moves away from me....now that you know that you should be able to get better lines than what I have gotten...use that knowledge to your advantage if you are tailing. Public has heavily bet favorites this week and perhaps favorites are due to have a good week.
Team line Covers KOC% VSIN%
Bears +7 42% 32%
Saints -5' 33% 23%
Falcons +8' 42% 51%
Steelers +14 46% 54%
Texans +7 54% 40%
Browns +3 33% 30%
Cowboys +5' 57% 67%
Bengals +3 45% 40%
Bengals OVER 48 69% 70%
Chiefs OVER 51 76% 73%
Lookahead lines have Indy -1 over the Jaguars and the Chargers -4' over the Broncos....there will be an avalanche of money fading the Colts and Broncos next week if those lines aren't changed.
Russell Wilson and Tom Brady have led charmed existences up until this point of their careers. It is rare that people go through life unscathed as the universe has a way of balancing the scales. I think about young athletes in their prime aged 18-23, they often try to wreck themselves with drugs and/or alcohol, and movie stars that have unlimited wealth and fame, but have drug addictions or relationship issues....it is all a balance as is sports betting.
It is all coming to a head for both Brady and Wilson and it will not end well for both of them. Brady looks old, frail and stressed going through a divorce,...he's had very, very little go wrong in his professional life, but now his personal life is a mess and Father Time has caught up with him and for the first time he doesn't have a genius or two behind the scenes making accentuating his attributes. He doesn't look happy, as often is the case with aging stars, he held on a year or two too long,
Russell Wilson for whatever reason has Father Time on his back too. He doesn't look like he has taken care of his body whereas Brady was obsessed over nutrition, recovery and sports science. Athletes very much underestimate the role coaches have in their lives and their performances, until a bad one shows up to illuminate how important those good coaches are in their careers. It can be very depressing with a big ego to realize it wasn't all them when they are saddled with someone much less than what they have been used to......."I made the plays, I made the passes, I brought the team through in the clutch", but it was the coach that put you in that position.
Bart Starr had his Lombardi, Joe Montana had his Bill Walsh, John Elway had his Mike Shanahan, Mahomes has his Andy Reid, Russell Wilson had his Pete Carroll and Tom Brady had his Belichick....I doubt any of them would have had near as much success without their coaches.
Now, neither Brady nor Wilson have that guy now, they are both aging with declining skills and after illustrious careers a regression is taking place, no different than we as sports bettors look for team that is in regression....nothing ever stays excellent forever, and they are among the very, very few that have had excellence last quite a long time.
1) Bears +7 ..............T
2) Texans +7.............W
3) Bears OVER 42'.....W
4) Saints -5'.............W
5) Steelers +14.........L
6) Browns +3...........W
7) Colts +3/3' double play....WW
8) Colts OVER..........L
9) Falcons +8'.........W
10) Cowboys +5
11) Bengals +3
12) Bengals OVER 48
13) Raiders OVER 51
Nice job today indigo….. the OT stat I mentioned had a team that finally lost today and that was Detroit. Another stat I always look year after year is a team that scores zero points has a high percentage of either winning outright the following week or covering the spread. Indy did it earlier by beating KC and detroit plays dallas in week 7. I don’t know if I like that pick much, but I’ll be going with the percentage.
9-3-1 ATS for the week with the OVER on MNF pending, 40-19 ATS for the season.....next week looks kinda tough.
WON'T be playing any more prime time OVERs after tomorrow that is for sure....lol.
I have a 2-3 angles that strongly support the Raiders plus the points tomorrow, but conversely there is one that strongly goes against them so I will probably pass on the side.
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