Quote Originally Posted by Redxff77:
@indogo999 3 games equaling 6 teams that have went into OT this year have all lost straight up the following week. The only game last week was GB and the patriots. If the trend continues both should lose. I believe gB does win this week, but the spread is to high against the giants.
That's a good observation....thanks for your contribution.
Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
@Indigo999 thankyou again indigo: Just a couple of thinhs I am lost on. When you use game 5 and week 5 in the same query, i thought that would be redundent, I mean can game 4 week 5 exist? Second, I always thought first down was the most important down and wanted to explore that idea..Does this data base allow a look? Thankyou in advance.
I don't know how to query differing down results (1st down, 2nd down, etc.)...if the Hood man can do that you could liason with him.
Also, there used to be an uneven amount of teams and there was even week one bye weeks, so a team's game two could be in week 3, etc.
For you baseball guys out there.....did a little digging....all the game ones the away team is also the underdog....and those that ended the season not crushing it have been good plays in game one as away dogs.
a) Away dogs in series game 1 have been 38-47 straight up (+5.0% ROI) if they finished the season with less than 5 wins in their last six games.....Padres, Rays, Phillies, Mariners
b) If the game one away dog's present opponent also won less than 5 out of their last six games this moves to 30-28 straight up (+20.4% ROI), 13-15 straight up (+10.1% ROI) in the first round of the playoffs.....Padres, Rays, Phillies
AD and playoffs=1 and series game=1 and tS(W, N=6)<5 and oS(W, N=6)<5
c) Teams that fit a and b where the total is <=7 runs have been 10-6 straight up, (45.3% ROI) and the under suprisingly went 6-10 o/u......Padres, Rays, Phillies
The runline on home favorites has also cashed at around 10% ROI, which means if you go on past history you would either be taking the home favorite -1.5 or taking the away dog outright,...the worst bet where you would have lost consistently would be to play the away dog at +1.5.
In essence low totals have strongly favored the away dog in game 1 if the home favorite struggled at the end of the season....the query below shows a ROI of 29.7%
series game=1 and AD and playoffs=1 and total<8 and oS(W, N=6)<5 and line<150
oS(W, N=6)<5 = an opponent that won less than five out of the past six games.