Week V technical angles

For favorite bettors....here's one for you with indicators on Rams, Packers and Bucs....personally I would only consider taking the Packers.

A home favorite with less or equal wins on the season to their present opponent between weeks 1 and 8 that will be at least a 3 point favorite their next game playing a team that will be at least a 3 point dog...the line must be between -1 and -12.....73-27 ATS (+5.52), 73%.

n:line < -2.5 and on:line > 2.5 and 8 < month < 11 and t:wins <= o:wins and HF and -12 < line < -1 and 1 < game number < 8

Taking away the line stipulations before week 11 and after week 1 this is 381-195 (+4.83) 65.5%.....

n:line < -2.5 and on:line > 2.5 and t:wins <= o:wins and  1<game number<11 and HF, HD, AF, AD

GL.

Adding two plays:

10)  Falcons +8'

Teams that did poorly in-division the previous season, playing with revenge as away divisional dogs have performed well,...I have a 65-26 ATS angle supporting the Falcons.  I would expect the Falcons to outrush attempt the Bucs, I wrote about this earlier in this thread how this is a very positive correlator with point spread success.  KOC contest has 40% of the betting population on the Falcons and VSIN has them at 46%.

11)  Bengals +3, -105

Teams at this time of the season as away dogs playing off a Thursday game have done well.  Also, my theory on running quarterbacks like Murray of the Cardinals and Jackson of the Ravens is that they perform poorly at home for whatever reason and are supermen on the road.  (We'll see what happens late season or next season with Hurts of Philly.)....Murray is 2-8 ATS at home since the beginning of last season and the Ravens have lost five straight at home.  45% of bettors in the KOC contest are on the Bengals and VSIN puts the number at 36%.  Teams with double divisional revenge as is the case for the Jaguars and the Ravens this week show no positive advantage, sitting almost exactly 50% point spread success in the first two months of the season.

"Teams with double divisional revenge as is the case for the Jaguars and the Ravens this week show no positive advantage, sitting almost exactly 50% point spread success in the first two months of the season.".........

should read home favorite double divisional revenge

@Indigo999

 brilliant..thx for the work and being kind enough to share the query text....bol this week.

Yes, you're welcome, I would assume you're starting to make some SDQL queries of your own to use.

Here's another one that is a bit peculiar.....a home favorite off a game where they kicked at least 5 field goals.....15-33 ATS, if this game is in October or November this moves to 4-17 ATS......VERSUS Vikings.

p:field goals>=5 and HF and month

However, it should be noted that teams in this situation that have won their last two games versus their opponent as is the case with Minnesota this week have been 6-6 ATS, 8-4 o/u.

p:field goals>=5 and HF and P:W and PP:W

Full credit for this one goes to USArmy, who has posted this in the NFL forum.

Indigo,

Thanks for sharing ....you help to really make Covers a terrific site.

Continued success

Thanks buddy.....

Here's another angle, that indicates plays on three of the worst teams in the NFL,......

A game five, week 5 away favorite with EXACTLY one more win than their opponent.......9-21-1 ATS......if that away favorite has less than four wins..........7-19-1 (-7.59), 11-16 straight up.....VERSUS 49ers, Dolphins, Titans.....if either the away favorite will be a dog next game or their present opponent will be a favorite this moves to 3-12-1 ATS, VERSUS Commanders. 

My cajones are not big enough to consider a play on the Jets, Commanders or Panthers....lol!

game number = 5 and week=5 and AF and  t:wins - o:wins = 1   and t:wins<4

This will be the last of my plays this week.

The background to this game is as follows.....an away dog in week 5, game 5 who made the playoffs last season (present opponent's game 5 also), with the better winning percentage season-to-date than their opponent.....8-0 ATS (+10.69), 8-0 straight up (+7.50), 7-1 o/u.........ON Cowboys

AD and tpS(playoffs)>0.0 and game number = 5 and o:game number = 5 and week = 5 and t:wins-o:wins>0

On the other hand away dogs that didn't make the playoffs last season in week five, game 5 with the better winning percentage have been 11-26 ATS.....AGAINST Seahawks 

Final plays:

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5 

4)  Steelers +14

5)  Bengals +3

6)  Browns +3

7)  Colts +3 one unit, Colts +3' one unit

8)  Cowboys +5

9)  Falcons +8'

10) Bengals OVER 48

11) Bears OVER 42'

12) Chiefs OVER 51 

Good fortune to everyone.

For anyone that is interested for NCAA football this week I am playing

SMU +3'

LSU +120

Army +17

Missouri +11

Houston +3

Arkansas +6

TCU -5'

NFL: also strong on the Rams this week. 

(under) F and day = Monday and p:ou margin>12 and ou streak=1 and season>2000

with you on these 

College:

SMU +3'

LSU +120

Army +17

Houston +3

Arkansas +6

BOL  great analysis 

@Indigo999

 thankyou again indigo: Just a couple of thinhs I am lost on.

When you use game 5 and week 5 in the same query, i thought that would be redundent, I mean can game 4 week 5 exist?

Second, I always thought first down was the most important down and wanted to explore that idea..Does this data base allow a look?

Thankyou in advance.

@Jowchoo

There is, if Indigo doesn't show you PM me this is his thread and I'm not one to step on someone else's toe's since he and I talk quite abit.

@jowchoo

In the past, some teams have had byes in week #4; not the case in 2021 or 2022.

@indogo999

3 games equaling 6 teams that have went into OT this year have all lost straight up the following week. The only game last week was GB and the patriots. If the trend continues both should lose. I believe gB does win this week, but the spread is to high against the giants. 

That's a good observation....thanks for your contribution.

I don't know how to query differing down results (1st down, 2nd down, etc.)...if the Hood man can do that you could liason with him.  

Also, there used to be an uneven amount of teams and there was even week one bye weeks, so a team's game two could be in week 3, etc.

For you baseball guys out there.....did a little digging....all the game ones the away team is also the underdog....and those that ended the season not crushing it have been good plays in game one as away dogs.

  a)  Away dogs in series game 1 have been 38-47 straight up (+5.0% ROI) if they finished the season with less than 5 wins in their last six games.....Padres, Rays, Phillies, Mariners

  b)  If the game one away dog's present opponent also won less than 5 out of their last six games this moves to 30-28 straight up (+20.4% ROI), 13-15 straight up (+10.1% ROI)  in the first round of the playoffs.....Padres, Rays, Phillies

AD and playoffs=1 and series game=1 and tS(W, N=6)<5 and oS(W, N=6)<5

  c)  Teams that fit a and b where the total is <=7 runs have been 10-6 straight up, (45.3% ROI) and the under suprisingly went 6-10 o/u......Padres, Rays, Phillies

The runline on home favorites has also cashed at around 10% ROI, which means if you go on past history you would either be taking the home favorite -1.5 or taking the away dog outright,...the worst bet where you would have lost consistently would be to play the away dog at +1.5.

In essence low totals have strongly favored the away dog in game 1 if the home favorite struggled at the end of the season....the query below shows a ROI of 29.7%

series game=1 and AD and playoffs=1 and total<8 and oS(W, N=6)<5 and line<150

oS(W, N=6)<5 = an opponent that won less than five out of the past six games.

Thanks you @indigo999 for all this work / info

First reading your post... you seem like an interesting fella...   thanks for your time and effort... worth my time.. will look in .... in the future... and try to add some input.    Thank you sir.  

Well I could at least get the right indicated team....I am copying this from thread #33 where I had the numbers and query correct but indicated the wrong team...sorry for that.

"A game five, week 5 away favorite with EXACTLY one more win than their opponent.......9-21-1 ATS......if that away favorite has less than four wins..........7-19-1 (-7.59), 11-16 straight up.....VERSUS 49ers, Dolphins, Titans.....if either the away favorite will be a dog next game or their present opponent will be a favorite this moves to 3-12-1 ATS, VERSUS Commanders IS NOT CORRECT".....should read  VERSUS TITANS

My cajones are not big enough to consider a play on the Jets, Commanders or Panthers....lol!

game number = 5 and week=5 and AF and  t:wins - o:wins = 1   and t:wins<4

Here's an interesting thing regarding the baseball playoffs,...game one of a series.....

Home favorites of less than -150 in night games have only gone 17-24 straight up in night games (after 4 pm)...if you played the away dogs you'd be up 27% ROI.....VERSUS Mets, Blue Jays

playoffs = 1 and series game = 1 and HF and line>-150 and start time>1600

Home favorites of less than -150 in day games before 4 pm have gone 7-3, +25% ROI....PLAY ON Cardinals, Guardians 

Thanks for stopping by, appreciate the feedback.

Here's an angle using average first downs per game....almost ALL angles that have produced good results in the past are regressive, which means if one team has held an advantage in season-to-date averages in a particular stat, that advantage DOES NOT continue in the game in question anywhere from 55-70% of the time.

This one is non-regressive....a few teams have that advantage in first downs gained per game and as we drill down using some other filters I like to use the better next game line between the two teams as a tightener,...this ALWAYS increases the advantage unless it is saying to take the favorite...this year home favorites with the better/stronger next week line have not performed well, which is very unusual.....no matter, because as you've seen, almost all of my plays are underdogs.

So, we'll go through the step-by-step process that I use. 

We use stats from 2014 onwards as it seems at about that time home field advantage no longer was that big of a deal...I am not of the idea that I need to know why, it just is for me....you should as bettors know this too, there is almost no home field advantage any more in the pro football.

  a)  Away dogs that have averaged more first downs than their present opponent per game before week 11....144-118-7, 55%, (+1.54).....Colts, Lions, Seahawks, Falcons, Bengals

  b)  If our away dog in this situation has less than or equal wins to their present opponent before week 11.....115-91-6, 55.8%, (+1.76), 116-89-7 o/u (+1.28)....Colts, Lions, Bengals, Falcons

  c)  If our away dog that meets criteria in "a" and "b" has a stronger next week line than their opponent this moves to 56-29-2 ATS, (+4.41), 52-33-2 o/u (+2.00)

tA(FD) > oA(FD) and AD and season > 2014 and game number < 11 and t:wins<=o:wins and n:line-on:line<0

Colts play at home to Jaguars (-2') and the Broncos are at the Chargers (+4') next week.

Now, I have had a very good start to the season, however I've lost my last two Thursday night games where I played both away dogs.

Perhaps the difference this week will be those last two TNF games I played on consensus away dogs and this week only 41% of the public are on the Colts at VSIN and 43% are on them at KOC.

We'll see what transpires.

  d)  If we add to our query #49 in the post above that our PLAY ON team (Colts) is off a home loss and their present opponent (Broncos) are off an away loss, this moves to 14-2-1 ATS on the Colts (+9.03), 13-4 straight up (+5.71) and 15-2 o/u (+7.32)