Week V technical angles

30-16 ATS season-to-date with UNDER in the SF/LA game pending.

The highlighted text is the query language I've used to research on   killersports..  One can copy and paste this into the query box in the NFL section to validate the results and to do further research if you wish.

1)  Week 5, game five home favorites with exactly one more win than their present opponent...25-35 ATS, 17-29 ATS if our home favorite has more than one win...AGAINST Broncos, (Bucs if they win tonight), Vikings

2)  Week 5, game five home favorites with exactly one less win than their present opponent....22-14 ATS.....ON  Saints, (Rams if they lose on MNF).

HF and game number = 5 and week = 5 and t:wins - o:wins

3) Here  is a VERY interesting stat, keeping in mind that teams committed to the run should do well against the spread (NE, Cleveland), Seattle, Chicago).....teams that outrush attempt their opponent cover a crazy percentage of the time....

as:

  a)  Home favorites 2252-965 ATS, 70%

  b)  Home dogs 859-194 ATS, 81.6%

  c)  Away favorites 1070-428 ATS, 71.4%

  d)  Away dogs 1718-334 ATS, 83.7%

Those teams that outrush attempt their opponent as underdogs win outright 2/3s of the time and cover the spread by an average of 9 points/game.

AD, AF, HD, HF and rushes>o:rushes

4)  Week 5, game number five away dogs off a home loss with a lesser line than the calculated line....29-17 ATS.....Texans, Colts, Steelers

week=5 and game number=5 and p:HL and AD and line

Number four did not completely copy correctly....

4)  Week 5, game number five away dogs off a home loss with a lesser line than the calculated line....29-17 ATS.....Texans, Colts, Steeler

week=5 and game number=5 and p:HL and AD and line<oA(margin)+2-tA(margin)

5)  Week 5, game number five home favorites off a loss of less than 5 points....14-21 ATS, 23-12 OVER....VERSUS Bills, Saints

week = 5 and game number = 5 and HF and p:margin > -5 and p:L

6)  Week 5, game number five home favorites (with less than four wins) averaging >50 yards/game more than they allow....18-34 ATS....VERSUS, Broncos, Packers, Bills

week = 5 and game number = 5 and tA(TY-o:TY)>50 and HF and t:wins<4

7)  A week five, game number five teams that outyarded their this week's opponent by over 50 yards their previous game.....

  a)  As home divisional favorites....9-21 ATS....VERSUS Vikings

  b)  As an away divisional dog off a loss, 6-0 ATS....ON Texans

week = 5 and game number = 5 and p:total yards - op:total yards > 50 and division = o:division and AD and p:L

8)  Week five, game number 5 home dogs with one or two wins on the season off a loss versus an opponent off a win....27-15 ATS....ON Broncos, Commanders

week = 5 and game number = 5 and HD and p:L and op:W and 3>t:wins>0 

9)  Game five, week 5 away dogs that played in one playoff game the season prior....14-3 ATS....Steelers, Cowboys, Raiders.....if that team now has at least two wins this moves to 11-1 ATS.....Cowboys

week = 5 and game number = 5 and AD and tpS(playoffs) = 1.0 and t:wins>1

10)  Game five away dogs that won their first game their previous game that are now away divisional dogs....1-11 ATS....VERSUS Raiders

p:W and t:wins = 1 and game number = 5 and AD and DIV

11)  Away divisional dogs game number five with at least double revenge....28-15 ATS.....ON Bears, Raiders, Falcons

P:L and PP:L and AD and DIV

Plays:

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5

4)  Browns +3

whats tonights winner den old friend......indigo girls...

I had nothing for SNF.

For Monday Night Football my play in the SF/LAR game is UNDER 42'

Adding a couple more for the coming week.....

Plays:

5)  Steelers +14

6)  Colts +3

______________________

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5.......Andy Dalton looked good.......both New Orleans and Dallas could save themselves a lot of aggravation if they stuck with their backup quarterbacks for the rest of the season.

4)  Browns +3

paul cole what a trainer.......56 chevy...to the levey whers was that levey paul old boy...why tis tis syrely in .....

fekin touch typing in the dark with me sunglasses on...tennesseeeeeeee...cert...bowling balll....

Correction for number 8....should read "Browns", NOT "Broncos".

8)  Week five, game number 5 home dogs with one or two wins on the season off a loss versus an opponent off a win....27-15 ATS....ON Browns, Commanders

week = 5 and game number = 5 and HD and p:L and op:W and 3>t:wins>0 

Modifying number 8 slightly.....

12)  A game five week 5 home dog off an away loss with less than 3 wins on the season versus an opponent  off a win....26-11 ATS.....Commanders, Browns........if their opponent is off an away win, this moves to 5-1 ATS, 1-5 o/u........Browns

game number = 5 and week=5 and p:AL and HD and  t:wins<3

13)  A game five week 5 home favorite with less than four wins on the season whose defense  allows  30 or more yards per game than what their offensive yards they produce per game .....25-28-2 ATS, 36-18-1 o/u (24-6 o/u since 2010)......Ravens OVER, Rams OVER, Vikings OVER 

TY=total yards....tA=average per game, o in brackets signifies what that team's opponents have done.

tA(o:TY-TY)>30 and HF and week=5 and game number=5 and t:wins<4 and season>2009

Plays......

Adding:

7)  Vikings/Bears OVER 42.5

8)  Ravens/Bengals OVER 48.5

_______________________________

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5

4)  Steelers +14

5)  Colts +3

6)  Browns +3

We'll add another couple of angles related to the Raiders/Chiefs game, which has been a road dominated series for quite a long time, we have in angle #10 that is a 1-10 ATS situation that goes AGAINST the Raiders, 8-3 O/U.....then in #11 we have a double  revenge  angle that favors the Raiders, Colts, Giants, Steelers, Bears, Lions, Seahawks and Falcons that is 71-46 ATS..... if our play ON team has less than three wins and has an equal amount of wins or one less win this moves to 35-14 ATS.....Bears, Colts, Lions, Falcons,....if the line in this situation is >6 this moves to 16-4 ATS....Bears, Falcons

P:L and PP:L and AD and week=5 and game number=5 and t:wins<3 and 1>t:wins-o:wins>-2

14)  A week five MNF home favorite with equal or more wins than their opponent whose next week line is weaker than their present opponent's next week line.  Chiefs play at home to Buffalo next week...they will be -2'/-3ish.  The Raiders host the Texans and they will be about a 5 point favorite......1-10 ATS (3-8 straight up), and 9-2 o/u....we have two strong angles supporting the Raiders and one that heavily goes against the Raiders, so we cannot play a side.  However two of these angles STRONGLY support the OVER and the other is neutral.

game number = 5 and HF and week = 5 and n:line > on:line and t:wins >= o:wins and day 

In the past few years, the first three weeks have been UNDER weeks, and after that things regress to the mean and OVERs start to even things out.  We acknowledge that prime time games have heavily gone towards UNDERs recently, in a historic way....that too should regress to the mean.

The public adores OVERs and it looks like a rookie play to take them....we like them in the near term and are looking for any ol' excuse to play them over the couple of weeks.....lol!

Plays:

Adding.....

9)  Raiders/Chiefs OVER 51

____________________________________

7)  Vikings/Bears OVER 42.5

8)  Ravens/Bengals OVER 48.5

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5

4)  Steelers +14

5)  Colts +3, adding a unit at +3' to make this a double play.

6)  Browns +3

7)  Vikings/Bears OVER 42.5

8)  Ravens/Bengals OVER 48.5

I take that back.....under Andy Reid, the Chiefs have been 7-2 ATS and 3-6 o/u as home favorites to the Raiders......

@Indigo999

 Leaning colts but they are pretty beat up. Denver lost good rb today though

Glad your thread is back on page 1. 

Think you can query teams records after playing in London? Seattle and Minny this week. What's interesting is that both teams requested to not have a bye after London.

I'm guessing that every result you get(if you can) will be a bye week after London. But I'm still interested if you can find it.

Thanks in advance 

As I mentioned before, I can't specify what site teams played at in a neutral site game at killersports.....home favorites with less than 8 days rest after playing at a neutral site.....6-4 ATS....Saints, Vikings

p:site and HF and playoffs=0 and rest<8

UNDER 42' in MNF wins, now 31-16 ATS on the season,.......including NCAA football my record stands at 56-33 ATS last four weeks.....we'll see how long the party lasts.

@Indigo999

 Thanks for the reply 

Here's a really strong angle, counterintuitive as much of the successful angles in the NFL are...I mentioned something similar in an earlier angle.

A week 5, game five home favorite that averages 36 yards more per game than they allow, with less than four wins on the season that has more wins on the season so far than their this week opponent.....9-31 ATS,....VERSUS Broncos, Bills, Chiefs...... 2-22 ATS (-7.42), 11-13 straight up (-1.88) if they are favored by less than 8 points......VERSUS Chiefs, Broncos

tA(TY-o:TY) > 36 and HF and game number = 5 and t:wins<4 and t:wins-o:wins>0 and week=5

Realize that we'd all be hitting greater than 60% this season in the NFL if we just took underdogs with a betting consensus of less than 43%.

Applicable teams this week on Tuesday using VSIN data.

a)  Bears.............24%

b)  Browns .........33%

c)  Jets...............27%

d)  Commanders 10%

e)  Panthers.......14%

f)  Cardinals.......31%

g)  Bengals........35%

h)  Raiders.........19%

This is one of my favorite betting stories....(I tell it whenever I can!...lol).  Betfair, an overseas betting exchange did a survey of their betting population, which at the time numbered 80,000 bettors.  They found 3,000 of them to be winners over the long haul,....soooo, if we do the math and take 3,000 divided into 80,000 that gives us a percentage of 3.75%.....which means 3.75% of us bettors will win (they say in the stockmarket about 30% will win).  It is a point to ponder that wouldn't we think that just doing the opposite of what the betting population is doing/thinking would be a good idea?  I'd say so!!

It also shows that the greed of certain sportsbooks in deciding they need to kick winners out.  Sportsbooks in totality make an average of a billion dollars a month, just in Nevada, that is not counting the other states  that now have sports betting.  If the ratio of losers to winners is 25/1, why would you worry about the very rare winner?...they very obviously are not making 25 times more than the 25 losers that are losing.

I don't recall if was Draft Kings or Fanduel, but one of the CEOs of that company made a snide remark to JJ Watt on twitter, and JJ Watt cleverly said something to the effect that "if you're so smart and successful how come the shares in your company are falling to the floor?"  Well, I can tell you why...that sportsbook has a policy of eliminating winners for their betting population...it is a sign of greed and bad karma for an entity that will lead to a fall.

Pinnacle  for most of its history has been the biggest and most successful sportsbook in the industry along with bet365.  They both have the biggest limits and at least until recently anyway welcomed winners (though I've heard just recently that that policy has changed).  Why, if you are DraftKings/Fanduel would you not try to emulate someone in your industry that is very successful?  Instead, despite a very lucrative fantasy business and a supposed lucrative sports betting business the stock market is grading their business model very harshly, with the underlying reason being that they are greedy and have decided they need more, and have basically a zero tolerance for winners.  All the sacred spiritual books of wisdom as one of their main tenants of a successful life talk about the fallacy of greed....as one song says, "Wisdom from the sacred page is turned and ignored".

And, what does the good book say is a cure for greed?....give to others less fortunate....Malachi 3:10, and when you give, give in secret or do not brag about the good that you do....Matthew 6:2-4. 

So, when Allstate gets up in their advertising and says "We've given x millions to students!", the benefits of their giving is negated,......... something for us all to ponder.

Last 2 regular season in KC in 2020 and 2021 went over...one played dec.12 which went over with LV scoring only 9 points...the other flew over played oct.11

The previous 2 in 2019 and both went under....the one dec.30 went way under the one dec.1 was under by 0.5...lv scored 3 points in the dec.30 game and 9 in the dec.1 game....

2 points from that

Carr not great in December in kc (cold weather.maybe)

arrowhead a tough place to play in december

Just had time to look into that and found the more recent numbers interesting

Also last 4 in the series overall (not just in KC) have gone over. 54.5 56.5 53.5 and 48 were the totals. 48 was the dec.12 game lv only scored 9

always interesting angles buddy!

should be "tenet" not tenant.

Plays:

1)  Bears +7

2)  Texans +7

3)  Saints -5

4)  Steelers +14

5)  Colts +3, adding a unit at +3' to make this a double play.

6)  Browns +3

7)  Ravens/Bengals OVER 48

8)  Vikings/Bears OVER 42'

9)  Broncos/Chiefs OVER 51

9)  Broncos/Chiefs OVER 51....should be Raiders/Chiefs OVER 51

Away dogs of less than 6.5 have hit 58% since 2017....breaking it down by month

September 70-39-3 ATS.....64.2%

October 60-42 ATS............58.8%

November 43-43-5 ATS.....50%

December 38-25-2 ATS.....60.3%

Why the difference in November....does it really make a difference why?  Those into esoterica would know that 11 is a master number in numerology.  

"ja, so what?" 

Some people pay attention to those things....WD Gann was considered the greatest stock market investor of all time who traded the markets 60-100 years ago (the stock exchange building is named after him) and he was a freemason, as is Warren Buffet who has made a coin or two in his life.  Those types are obsessed with angles, planetary alignments and  numbers like 33 etc.....it is no coincidence that when the NFL moved their the extra point try back those kickers now are attempting 33 yard attempts....the late owner of the Broncos, Pat Bowlen was also a freemason.

Home dogs of less than 6.5 points by the way, have done great in November in the same time period, 38-21 ATS.

HD and season > 2017 and line <= 6 and playoffs=0 and month

On another note, the consensus top five teams in Circa Millions contest are now 13-7 on the season, and 15-5 in the Westgate contest.  Are sports bettors on the whole getting smarter?  Typically the consensus hits below the Mendoza line (52.3%) for the season with those top five picks.

And, as I mentioned, taking those very fug ugly dogs with a low consensus on them have been money this season so far.  In the stock market there is a phrase, "never try to catch a falling knife", which in essence means, don't go against a prevailing trend...as always we'll watch with interest to see how things evolve.