WEEK 6 SDQL

adding 3% play on

NYJ +7.5  based on #25

adding 3% play on

NYJ +7.5  based on #25

i have an earlier 3% play on TB +3 -120, it is now +3 -110

I will increase my exposure with another 2 team 6 pt teaser -120 (4%)

KC -2.5/TB +9....like the #25 trend a lot

ELITE TREND !

season>=2024 and tA(plays/drives)>oA(o:plays/o:drives) and tA(o:plays/o:drives)<oA(plays/drives) and

H and total<47 and line<9.5 and week>2

(56-19)ATS  (75%)       undefeated this year (7-0-1)

Play on: TB , NYG

Normally I retain these elite situations but hope this deflects any regression...;-)

6% play based on #29

NYG -1

Lets review: 1Q is week 1-4 before rolling averages are used.

6%(3-0), 4%(3-1), 3% (2-4), 2% (19-6).......(24-14) +30.8% ROI

Now week 5 is the first week of 2Q:

6% (2-0), 4% (5-1-1), 3% (2-0), 2% (4-7)......(13-8-1)....  +27.3% ROI

YTD:    6% (5-0),  4%  (8-2-1),   3%  (4-4),  2%  (23-13)...+ 58.1% ROI

(37-22-1) ATS

So tampa could be a bigger play with giants -1?

@countrycrock

 Yes, I have the same exposure 6%

I sometimes split 6% signals into a 3% single and a tasty 3% teaser

which is what I did with TB

Thank you sir

A trend concerning bye weeks;

season>=2024 and rest>10 and F and 53.5>total>40.5 and line>-12.5 and week<20 and day!=Monday

(6-18) ATS

This trend favors LAC over KC -8.5 which is my teaser entry, this happens.

so 3% LAC +8.5

Andy Reid with a extra week of preparation is 21-10 ATS, so feel good with the 6 points of insurance,but can not pass up a 75% play.

Good luck.

Top totals trend

season>=2024 and tA(rushes/plays)>oA(o:rushes/o:plays) and tA(o:rushes/o:plays)<oA(rushes/plays) and

H and p:W and op:W and 56.5>total>43 and 7>line>-13.5 and week>3 and day!=Saturday...............(31-11) over....(3-0) this year

Play over NYJ/NE 43.5...check weather first.

#38 is a watch for now..Gillette Stadium is gusting 14-17 with cross gusts topping 25mph

With the current line dropping from 44.5 to 43.5...an over wager is dangerous,so unless these winds subside, it may be

prudent to wait for another signal later...shame it is a 74% trend with a nice sample size

Maybe jowchoo or hoody could look this up when KC wins game then goes into bye wk then after bye wk how they do ATS?  I believe they have a good ATS record in this scenario.

This shows 4-1 ats as a home fav since 2000 and 4-1 ats at home, and if there opp lost their previous game 3-0 and scored at least 40 points in those 3 games  and let up a total of 29

week=p:week+2 and HF and team=Chiefs and line<=-7 and playoffs=0 and season>=2000

(5-0 s/u) (4-1 ats) scored 164 and let up 55 points

week=p:week+2 and H and team=Chiefs and line<=-7 and op:L and playoffs=0 and season>=2000

(3-0 s/u) (4-1 ats) scored 122 pts and let up 29

thats 3-0 s/u and 3-0 ats

Note this one is 2-0 s/u when there previous game was a win and 2-0 ats

week=p:week+2 and H and p:W and team=Chiefs and line<=-7 and op:L and playoffs=0 and season>=2000  

Thx hoody, I loaded up on KC-7-135 this wk.  I bought that 1 pt cause this is divisional rivalry.

The way I would do it is account for the sample size with Mahomes at qb.

season>=2018 and rest>11 and p:W and H and team=Chiefs and playoffs=0

This shows :

(2-2) ATS with a 1.8 margin

(0-4)O/U with a -8.2 total margin

Looks to me the value here is the UNDER..................................gl on your bet

I am with you as I have KC-2.5 riding in some good teaser action

Based on #49

6pt 2 team teaser for 3%

LAC/KC under 49 with SF-1.5  (-120)

a sprinkle on KC game total under.

2% LAC/KC under 43