Week 5: 4 team 13 point teaser (4-0 on season + 4 units)

Wow, that monday night game was close... a few things I might have done wrong in retrospect...

A. Poor number... I had no value in +2.5 and really needed the SU win to cover...

B.  IND starting new QB... not that I thought he was going to do well, but the value in the +13 points is when there is less variability... with collins you know IND will score between the teens and high 20s... with painter anything was possible from a shut out to +30 points...

But got lucky I guess...  Thank you to everyone that participated in last week's discussion...

So lets do it again this week...

Here is the basic review to avoid the common questions...

1.  4 team 13 point teaser: -120 odds
2. 1 unit = 10% of bank roll...  2unit max, 1/2 unit min
3. I only play sides, no totals
4. no mixing with college or other sports, pure NFL

So here we go...

So at first glance, this looks like a crappy week... alot of 3s and 6s which are not good numbers +13 points ATS...

CIN +16...  CIN is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS and 4-0 + 13 points ATS... They are playing a JAX team that has not scored more then 16 points in a game so to me this number has value...

any more ideas or suggestions?

I like this teaser:
GB+7 (Rodgers is on fire, I think GB wins SU. Atlanta barely got by seattle, what are the packers capable of? but if they did lose i cant see it being by more than a TD)
Pats+4 (Brady at home, revenge game,jets not playing well, think pats win SU etc)
Raiders +19 (no andre johnson, is houston really  gonna win by 3TD'S?)
Panthers +19.5(newton at home, not winning but been keeping it close. plus the saints only beat blaine gabbert by 13. i like newton alot better than gabbert)

what do you think?

GB is overrated right now and that is not a good number...I am actually thinking that ATL has a chance to win this SU...

NE +4 is not a bad number, but I think because NE beat OAK and NYJ is coming off of a lose and losing to OAK...

consider this... last year NE was favored by 3 and -3.5 in their regular season match ups... -9 was the line in the playoffs where they lost...  considering last years 45-3 blowout, the idea of a possible revenge game makes sense, but it could be said that that since NE/NYJ seem to split every season that NYJ is able to hold their own in this divisional rivalry i could see an NYJ SU win or a NE blow out... so there is too much variability and I would only play it if I got more then 7...  so Im passing...

OAK +19... I hear you about the johnson injury however it will come down to HOU's ability to run the ball....  I think that there is blow out potential in a game that even though they are going to texas it is a west coast team playing the early game... 19 is a good number, but the O/U at 49 is saying this might a higher scoring game giving the +13 points less value...

CAR +19.5 is similar as the o/u at 51 is communicating a higher scoring game and less value...  I also see this as high variability in that I could CAR win SU, but I could also see them get blown out as NO's attacking style of defense could frustrate newton... weather in CAR should be good and allow both teams to pass the ball...  CAR pass game suffered due to weather in their last home game...

This seems like a tough week... I might be looking at reducing from my normal 1 unit bet...

Thanks for your contribution... good luck

Falcons play well at Home.

NY Giants............ seattle not good on a road.... and coming by week........... good 13 pts teaser NY Giants...

Good win last week dl. Cincy is the only line that really jumps out at me as a value line. Even then, I only have em at +14 at my book. Here are some teams I would look at.

Cinci +15 1/2 makes most sense.  Jax offense should not be good enough to win by 2TD+ over Cinci D.

I know u don't like picking college games but should look at LSU -1/2.  Flo starting QB is likely a true freshman, against that defense in that stadium, don't see how LSU loses.  LSU run D is stout, held Oregon's James to 50 yds, whereas he ave 180 in his other games.  Oregon ave 360 rushing yds in games beside LSU but only had 100 against them.  True freshman QB in first road game is not going to have much success against that secondary, w/ likely best DB in country in Mathieu.  I have this as my fav 13-pt play of yr.

TB +16 - Low total line and SF offense shouldn't be good enough to win by 2+TD.  SF had their biggest win in long time last wk.

Agree it's a tough week dl.

Lions +8, Titans +16, Eagles +10, Chiefs +16

Eagles +10- no way does Philly get beat badly in a close to a must win,  Seattle +22.5- Now way Giants win  by 3+ tds,  KC-14- Indy won't beat anyone by more than 10 points this season,  Jax +12-  Like the home team with 12 points  good value

Eagles in a must win game. Titans in a game where they will win straight up. Bengals have lots of value. These 3 should be on there 100%

Jets +22.5...ill take 3 TDs in a divisional matchup all day

Not saying your wrong - because I am a giant fan and biased.  But last two games giants vs seattle

11/7/10 - Giants won 41-7 @ seattle

10/5/08 - Giants won 44-6

Both as 7 point favs...west coast team playing 1:00pm Eastern game... I might stay away from taking seattle in this teaser.  Gmen would be the side for me, but like i said, I'm biased.

Also just looking at seattle last year in general coming east (not necessarily 1 oclock game or even eastern time zone)...

@ denver lost 31-14 as 3.5 dogs

@ st louis lost 20-3 as 1.5 favs

@ chi won 23-20 as 6 point dogs (seattle coming off a bye week)

@ new orleans lost 34-19 as 11 point dogs

@ TB lost 38-15 as 5 point dogs

I too am a Giants fan. Respect your opinion but this year's Giants team is not the same from 10 and 08.

CAR +13

dl - way to keep it rollin last wk. Went 6-0 in 4tmrs myself & like a few this week gettin more than 2tds along with the Pats & a couple totals. Atl +19 probably scares me the most with their pass D & little pass rush even at home (like the total over better), but these are some initial leans on sides -

Cincy +15.5/Tenny +16/Buff +16/Pats +4/TB +16/AZ +16/Atl +19

Still think it's good, but eliminating Pats +4. Their D is too suspect & the Jets pass D is still a little too solid for only a margin of 4 -

Oak +19 is a must imo

Don't love a ton of these this week, but I'd start with the Giants +3.5.  I'm feeling confident in the Patriots +4 as well because Sanchez already got his "surprise" game against these guys in last year's playoffs.  Those are my two most confident straight up winners.

I'm looking to fill the last two spots with two of these five - Raiders +18.5, Panthers +19.5, Titans +16, Bengals +15, Bucs +16.  I think each of these have a shot of an outright win, especially Tennessee. 

Without Andre Johnson and with Jacoby Jones gimpy, I expect the Texans to run the ball a ton.  If needed, I think Jason Campbell has a better chance to backdoor Houston than he did New England.  

I do like the Saints to beat Carolina, but Cam's a backdoor king.  They're not going to stop throwing the ball, so even as good as the Saints are, I like Carolina's chances of staying within 3 TDs.

I don't think the Titans are as good defensively as their ranking says, but Pittsburgh is struggling.  Ben's banged up, his line sucks, and Mendenhall and Harrison are out.  I don't see the Titans having a letdown here, and that's what it would take to not cover the 16 points.  The Steelers aren't going to be throwing it all over the place if they're up two scores.  Will probably play Tennessee ML small if I ever get a line. 

Both the Jags and Bengals suck IMO, but the Bengals have the more competent rookie passer and receiving targets.  Cincinnati's pass defense is clearly better than Jacksonville's as well.  Knowing that I feel comfortable with two TDs in my pocket. 

Bucs fan here.  Sloppy performance on MNF followed by a cross country trip out west isn't enticing, but the Bucs did win out there 21-0 last year.  Freeman is the difference for this team and should have his successes against a struggling pass defense.  I think the Bucs will have a better chance if they come out establishing the pass instead of pounding Blount early.  Spread out the Niners and work Williams, Winslow, and Parker in the intermediate zones.  Then start featuring Blount.  Mix in some boot action and really capitalize on Freeman's ability to make big (key) plays with his legs.  Gore's gimpy, and our front seven (especially the DL) is starting to get a lot of confidence.  I look for them to keep SF's ground game in check and get after Alex Smith who's already been sacked 14 times this year.  If this one is close in the 4th, I'd much rather have my money on Freeman than Smith. 

Gun to head right now -

NE +4...NYG +3.5...TEN +16...TB +16

Vi3t,

I think that GB is some what overrated at the moment with an MVP like performance from Rogers at home in the last game. I think is some value. In getting ATL as a Home dog ...

I dont like games with NYG because they are so variable/inconsistent

I agree with you about TEN as not only is PIT banged up, but by reputation they are overrated and are falling to the superbowl loser curse with a difficult next season.. 

I think this is slated to be a lower scoring game and therefore you are getting more value with the +13 points ATS...

I hear you about the NYG as a SU winner, but +2 give little value for crossing the zero... it would be nice to get this at +3.5 or better...

superb write up and info...

you are correct about the conservative play calling.. SF is also high in public perception because of their win against the dream team...  I can get it at +16...  anything about 14 those seems decent...

the lower to mid range o/u speaks to value +13 points ATS

thank you for your contribution as local insider info is priceless

with you on both...

TB +16
CIN +16

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Gun to head...

Ten +16 - Ben hurting, Mendenhall might miss game, OL complete mess, LT is either injured Scott or Starks, who practiced w/ team for first time in a yr.  No way Starks in playing shape as he's had weight issues.  Johnson is going to break out one of these days.

Oak +19 - Johnson out, next best ball catcher is TE Daniels and only TE to do any damage against Oak so far is Jets' Keller, NE Gronkowski only had 1 catch.  Early East Coast AM game for Oak but they did good against Buf earlier in yr.

I think TEN is a decent bet ...  I have it at 16, 16.5 right now good value in a what might be a low scoring game...  what I dont like is the variability at the QB and RB positions...

 thanks for your contribution, good luck to you this week alot